COVID-19 - Central Asia - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Central Asia is a Group with the following members:
Kazakhstan - Kyrgyzstan - Tajikistan - Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 171561 230.6 2091 1.23% 1.55%
Active cases 42306 56.9 -870 -2.02% -1.97%
Deaths 2742 3.7 14 0.51% 2.71%
Recovered 126513170.029472.38%2.59%
Deaths per infected 1.6%
Recovered per infected73.74%
Active per infected 24.66%
Deaths per recovered 2.17%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
1.0%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 56d 12h 45d 4h
Time to reach a million cases 143d 18h114d 22h
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 68 54
Active na 58 145
Deaths na 75 21
Recovered na 57 32
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Central Asia

Kazakhstan - Kyrgyzstan - Tajikistan - Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Kazakhstan18.66796922251841058706801.41-1.956.682.5349d 10h10d 17h519.2134.95.7378.61.51:66.70.73
Uzbekistan34.081283158849175192912.7-1.083.094.2225d 23h22d 19h83.126.00.556.60.91:109.90.68
Kyrgyzstan6.5243865971131447300991.27-3.320.582.2555d 0h119d 17h592.6109.022.2461.44.81:20.80.78
Tajikistan9.28766511606264430.570.120.330.53122d 9h208d 6h82.612.50.769.41.01:104.20.84
Central Asia74.411715614230627421265131.55-1.972.712.5945d 4h25d 21h230.656.93.7170.02.21:46.10.74

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Kazakhstan18.66796922251841058706801.51:66.70.730.010.010.010.010.011.53Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan34.081283158849175192910.91:109.90.680.010.010.010.010.010.14Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan6.5243865971131447300994.81:20.80.780.040.040.040.040.055.99Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan9.28766511606264431.01:104.20.840.010.010.010.010.010.18Tajikistan
Central Asia74.411715614230627421265132.21:46.10.740.020.020.020.020.021.0Central Asia

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt