COVID-19 - Gambia - 20-08-04

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Gambia is included in the following groups: Western Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region
Gambia has a landborder to: Senegal

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 671 28.6 173 34.74% 11.66%
Active cases 578 24.6 157 37.29% 5.59%
Deaths 14 0.6 5 55.56% 2.5%
Recovered 793.41116.18%0.61%
Deaths per infected 2.09%
Recovered per infected11.77%
Active per infected 86.14%
Deaths per recovered 17.72%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.16%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 2d 7h 6d 6h
Time to reach a million cases 24d 12h66d 5h
Time to saturate the population27d 8h 73d 23h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 142
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 155 134 2
Active 118 86 20
Deaths 147 126 22
Recovered 171 164 97
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Gambia

Senegal

Gambia in its groups

Western Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt