COVID-19 - Iran - 20-09-20

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Iran is included in the following groups: Southern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region
Iran has a landborder to: Afghanistan - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Iraq - Pakistan - Turkey - Turkmenistan

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 422140 506.8 3097 0.74% 0.72%
Active cases 38269 45.9 976 2.62% 1.92%
Deaths 24301 29.2 183 0.76% 0.56%
Recovered 359570431.719380.54%0.43%
Deaths per infected 5.76%
Recovered per infected85.18%
Active per infected 9.07%
Deaths per recovered 6.76%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 94d 3h 97d 4h
Time to reach a million cases 117d 2h120d 22h
Time to saturate the population>1yr stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 17
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 13 56 79
Active 25 81 50
Deaths 10 23 57
Recovered 11 49 98
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Neighbours of Iran

Afghanistan - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Iraq - Pakistan - Turkey - Turkmenistan

Iran in its groups

Southern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt