COVID-19 - Most Populous - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Most Populous is a Group with the following members:
Bangladesh - Brazil - China - Ethiopia - India - Indonesia - Japan - Mexico - Nigeria - Pakistan - Philippines - Russia - US

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 23449432 491.7 186208 0.8% 0.78%
Active cases 6240849 130.8 48148 0.78% 0.2%
Deaths 615051 12.9 3415 0.56% 0.5%
Recovered 16593532347.91346450.82%0.79%
Deaths per infected 2.62%
Recovered per infected70.76%
Active per infected 26.61%
Deaths per recovered 3.71%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 86d 22h 88d 18h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 70 80
Active na 52 105
Deaths na 50 68
Recovered na 67 62
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Most Populous

Bangladesh - Brazil - China - Ethiopia - India - Indonesia - Japan - Mexico - Nigeria - Pakistan - Philippines - Russia - US

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
US329.4887663293441045221375230390890.650.350.290.74106d 10h240d 15h2325.81338.664.9922.47.01:14.20.4
Japan126.018826765041623801400.580.290.240.46119d 14h293d 2h70.05.21.363.62.01:49.30.91
Brazil211.284505588840339514963945028540.57-0.10.350.51122d 20h196d 7h2392.9190.970.82131.23.31:30.10.89
Pakistan219.017318266864665583030620.23-1.740.120.25300d 10h>1yr145.33.93.0138.42.21:46.30.95
Indonesia266.91232465865314116772476671.360.320.761.3351d 10h91d 17h121.624.54.492.84.71:21.20.76
Philippines108.4343347705331161522753070.753.381.00.0992d 18h69d 19h308.749.25.7253.92.21:44.80.82
Russia146.74512655722382362213710051990.921.930.630.4675d 20h110d 3h862.4162.315.1685.02.21:45.50.79
India1360.054697942388318510741659888221.05-0.890.731.1266d 6h95d 3h513.264.97.9440.31.81:55.90.86
Mexico126.57881002039400834976871231.250.791.01.1555d 23h69d 13h639.931.166.0542.812.21:8.20.85
Bangladesh168.3043758708048154772899120.39-0.210.420.47179d 16h167d 2h223.347.83.3172.31.91:52.90.77
Nigeria206.145999272651113516140.22-0.770.00.31319d 14h29.13.50.525.02.21:46.30.86
Ethiopia98.66582662442891271371020.96-0.20.651.9772d 18h107d 10h83.844.91.337.63.41:29.20.45
Most Populous4769.49234494326240849615051165935320.780.20.50.7988d 18h138d 19h491.7130.812.9347.93.71:27.00.71

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Most Populous4769.49234494326240849615051165935323.71:27.00.710. Populous

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt