COVID-19 - Most Populous - 20-08-02

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Most Populous is a Group with the following members:
Bangladesh - Brazil - China - Ethiopia - India - Indonesia - Japan - Mexico - Nigeria - Pakistan - Philippines - Russia - US

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 11418382 239.4 147756 1.31% 1.88%
Active cases 4682249 98.2 57493 1.24% 1.13%
Deaths 372254 7.8 2213 0.6% 1.01%
Recovered 6363879133.4880501.4%2.03%
Deaths per infected 3.26%
Recovered per infected55.73%
Active per infected 41.01%
Deaths per recovered 5.85%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
2.11%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 53d 5h 37d 5h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population>1yr 323d 23h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 67 54
Active na 46 86
Deaths na 48 58
Recovered na 63 42
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Most Populous

Bangladesh - Brazil - China - Ethiopia - India - Indonesia - Japan - Mexico - Nigeria - Pakistan - Philippines - Russia - US

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
China1401.8568798522984669810180.234.480.040.1304d 14hstable6.30.20.35.85.81:17.40.92
US329.4884667954304440515486014686891.431.10.691.5348d 21h100d 16h1416.7924.047.0445.710.51:9.50.31
Japan126.0139116123551013257484.056.330.222.3117d 10h316d 14h31.09.80.820.43.91:25.40.66
Brazil211.28427336775766979410420628761.951.861.111.7635d 21h62d 12h1293.8272.944.5976.44.61:21.90.75
Pakistan219.0172796992514659762485770.32-1.310.290.39214d 19h237d 20h127.711.52.7113.52.41:41.70.89
Indonesia266.912111455372445236689751.780.121.172.3539d 4h59d 14h41.814.02.025.87.61:13.20.62
Philippines108.434103185355692059655574.42-8.540.9428.6416d 0h74d 3h95.232.81.960.53.11:31.80.64
Russia146.745849277186212141046489610.65-1.340.811.1106d 6h86d 6h578.7126.99.6442.22.21:46.10.76
India1360.05418036955793573813511862034.022.732.273.8217d 13h30d 19h132.642.62.887.23.21:31.20.66
Mexico126.57843904648773477463425271.750.881.141.6939d 21h61d 6h346.938.537.7270.613.91:7.20.78
Bangladesh168.30424074610075331541368390.990.340.871.3670d 5h80d 5h143.059.91.981.32.31:43.50.57
Nigeria206.144384122645888203080.960.350.341.3872d 16h202d 1h21.311.00.49.94.41:22.90.46
Ethiopia98.665187061079531076014.274.593.562.016d 13h19d 19h19.010.90.37.74.11:24.50.41
Most Populous4769.4911418382468224937225463638791.881.131.012.0337d 5h69d 4h239.498.27.8133.45.81:17.10.56

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
China1401.8568798522984669810185.81:17.40.920.050.050.050.050.050.09China
US329.48846679543044405154860146868910.51:9.50.310.030.030.040.040.0412.7US
Japan126.0139116123551013257483.91:25.40.660.030.030.030.040.040.22Japan
Brazil211.28427336775766979410420628764.61:21.90.750.030.040.040.040.0412.04Brazil
Pakistan219.0172796992514659762485772.41:41.70.890.020.020.020.020.020.74Pakistan
Indonesia266.912111455372445236689757.61:13.20.620.050.050.050.050.060.53Indonesia
Philippines108.434103185355692059655573.11:31.80.640.020.020.030.030.030.51Philippines
Russia146.745849277186212141046489612.21:46.10.760.020.020.020.020.022.6Russia
India1360.05418036955793573813511862033.21:31.20.660.020.020.030.030.030.76India
Mexico126.578439046487734774634252713.91:7.20.780.110.120.120.130.1410.19Mexico
Bangladesh168.30424074610075331541368392.31:43.50.570.010.010.010.010.020.51Bangladesh
Nigeria206.144384122645888203084.41:22.90.460.020.020.020.020.020.12Nigeria
Ethiopia98.665187061079531076014.11:24.50.410.020.020.020.020.030.08Ethiopia
Most Populous4769.4911418382468224937225463638795.81:17.10.560.030.030.040.040.042.11Most Populous

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt