COVID-19 - Nepal - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Nepal is included in the following groups: Female Heads of State - Southern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO South-East Asia Region
Nepal has a landborder to: China - India

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 100676 340.0 2059 2.09% 3.01%
Active cases 27053 91.4 369 1.38% 3.85%
Deaths 600 2.0 10 1.69% 1.98%
Recovered 73023246.616802.35%2.18%
Deaths per infected 0.6%
Recovered per infected72.53%
Active per infected 26.87%
Deaths per recovered 0.82%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.55%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 33d 13h 23d 8h
Time to reach a million cases 111d 2h77d 9h
Time to saturate the population275d 1h 191d 15h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 49
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 43 88 15
Active 36 65 33
Deaths 74 112 9
Recovered 43 79 16
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Nepal

China - India

Nepal in its groups

Female Heads of State - Southern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO South-East Asia Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt