COVID-19 - Northern Africa - 20-08-02

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 174954 71.6 1363 0.79% 1.16%
Active cases 72019 29.5 -998 -1.37% -0.08%
Deaths 7522 3.1 57 0.76% 0.75%
Recovered 9541339.023042.47%1.93%
Deaths per infected 4.3%
Recovered per infected54.54%
Active per infected 41.16%
Deaths per recovered 7.88%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.83%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 88d 15h 60d 4h
Time to reach a million cases 222d 21h151d 9h
Time to saturate the populationstable >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 101 81
Active na 75 127
Deaths na 79 74
Recovered na 103 44
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Africa

Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Egypt100.1594483471634865424550.33-1.540.62.76211d 7h115d 3h94.347.14.942.411.51:8.70.45
Algeria43.03146588151231214191.921.270.821.7836d 8h84d 11h73.220.52.949.85.81:17.40.68
Morocco35.845255376720382184353.6411.252.361.0419d 9h29d 17h71.218.71.151.42.11:48.30.72
Tunisia11.72215612895112211.242.610.40.8356d 5h173d 15h13.32.50.410.44.21:23.90.78
Sudan42.36111738484975261370.420.330.740.45164d 23h93d 9h27.711.41.814.512.21:8.20.52
Mauritania4.0776323105115751150.24-4.430.131.5294d 5h>1yr155.125.83.9125.53.11:32.60.81
Libya6.7538373131836234.964.843.811.3514d 7h18d 12h56.846.41.29.213.31:7.50.16
Northern Africa244.48174954720197522954131.16-0.080.751.9360d 4h92d 8h71.629.53.139.07.91:12.70.55

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Egypt100.15944834716348654245511.51:8.70.450.050.050.050.050.061.31Egypt
Algeria43.03146588151231214195.81:17.40.680.040.040.040.050.050.77Algeria
Morocco35.845255376720382184352.11:48.30.720.010.020.020.020.020.29Morocco
Tunisia11.72215612895112214.21:23.90.780.030.030.040.040.040.12Tunisia
Sudan42.361117384849752613712.21:8.20.520.060.070.070.070.070.48Sudan
Mauritania4.0776323105115751153.11:32.60.810.020.030.030.030.031.04Mauritania
Libya6.75383731318362313.31:7.50.160.020.030.030.030.040.33Libya
Northern Africa244.48174954720197522954137.91:12.70.550.040.040.050.050.050.83Northern Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt