COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 457223 436.3 3305 0.73% 0.31%
Active cases 341655 326.0 2937 0.87% 0.21%
Deaths 55422 52.9 215 0.39% 0.01%
Recovered 6014657.41530.26%0.08%
Deaths per infected 12.12%
Recovered per infected13.15%
Active per infected 74.72%
Deaths per recovered 92.15%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
14.29%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 95d 13h 221d 6h
Time to reach a million cases 107d 20h249d 19h
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 43 136
Active na 11 88
Deaths na 8 123
Recovered na 90 150
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
United Kingdom66.4363097962618514649814470.280.130.010.07252d 0hstable466.3394.170.02.23213.432.1:10.0
Norway5.368946835525688570.4610.570.080.0150d 19hstable176.46.64.8165.02.91:34.60.94
Sweden10.3348196776201576649710.380.290.060.0181d 23hstable793.2737.455.80.0116.01.2:10.06
Denmark5.82314586976617129930.786.660.030.2888d 17hstable250.516.810.6223.14.81:21.10.89
Ireland4.9212637212401768233640.23.690.00.0345d 18h535.925.235.9474.77.61:13.20.89
Finland5.528753222133169800.244.220.120.09291d 12h>1yr136.34.06.0126.34.71:21.10.93
Iceland0.3641932971018250.419.730.00.0169d 20h530.826.62.7501.40.61:181.80.94
Estonia1.32821241076319540.58.38-1.740.14139d 16h159.98.14.7147.13.21:31.10.92
Latvia1.90712751733210700.590.260.00.34117d 11h66.99.11.756.13.01:33.40.84
Lithuania2.79321714348116560.732.440.250.0794d 16h277d 14h77.715.52.959.34.91:20.40.76
Northern Europe104.845722334165555422601460.310.210.010.08221d 6hstable436.3326.052.957.492.21:1.10.13

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
United Kingdom66.4363097962618514649814473213.432.1:10.00.150.150.150.150.1618.92United Kingdom
Norway5.368946835525688572.91:34.60.940.030.030.030.030.031.29Norway
Sweden10.334819677620157664971116.01.2:10.060.070.070.070.070.0715.08Sweden
Denmark5.82314586976617129934.81:21.10.890.040.040.040.040.052.86Denmark
Ireland4.9212637212401768233647.61:13.20.890.070.070.070.070.079.71Ireland
Finland5.528753222133169804.71:21.10.930.040.040.040.040.041.62Finland
Iceland0.3641932971018250.61:181.80.940.010.010.010.010.010.74Iceland
Estonia1.32821241076319543.21:31.10.920.030.030.030.030.031.28Estonia
Latvia1.90712751733210703.01:33.40.840.030.030.030.030.030.45Latvia
Lithuania2.79321714348116564.91:20.40.760.040.040.040.040.040.78Lithuania
Northern Europe104.8457223341655554226014692.21:1.10.130.120.120.120.120.1314.29Northern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt