COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-06-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 389511 371.7 2642 0.68% 0.8%
Active cases 286949 273.8 2315 0.81% 1.05%
Deaths 48204 46.0 230 0.48% 0.63%
Recovered 5435851.9970.18%-1.09%
Deaths per infected 12.38%
Recovered per infected13.96%
Active per infected 73.67%
Deaths per recovered 88.68%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
12.43%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 101d 20h 86d 18h
Time to reach a million cases 138d 12h118d 0h
Time to saturate the populationstable >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 24 106
Active na 10 72
Deaths na 6 71
Recovered na 54 185
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
United Kingdom66.4362862942445164054812300.610.480.620.12114d 4h113d 0h430.9368.061.01.93296.633.0:10.0
Norway5.368853115523881380.2-10.970.171.06346d 0h>1yr158.92.94.4151.62.91:34.20.95
Sweden10.3344388739231465649713.036.361.050.023d 4h66d 5h424.7379.645.10.093.71:1.10.11
Denmark5.82312124616587109210.38-2.180.350.45184d 23h201d 1h208.210.610.1187.65.41:18.60.9
Ireland4.921251838071678226980.1-7.550.240.55>1yr287d 10h511.716.434.1461.27.41:13.50.9
Finland5.528696484232258000.23-4.330.251.09303d 13h276d 22h126.015.25.8104.95.51:18.00.83
Iceland0.364180621017940.00.00.00.0496.20.52.7492.90.61:178.60.99
Estonia1.32819311876916750.64-0.20.290.51107d 19h236d 0h145.414.15.2126.14.11:24.30.87
Latvia1.9071086280257810.37-1.190.830.96186d 7h83d 12h57.014.71.341.03.21:31.20.72
Lithuania2.79317053137113210.32-2.880.291.05216d 23h242d 22h61.011.22.547.35.41:18.60.77
Northern Europe104.838951128694948204543580.81.050.63-1.0986d 18h109d 13h371.7273.846.051.988.71:1.10.14

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
United Kingdom66.4362862942445164054812303296.633.0:10.00.140.150.150.150.1616.5United Kingdom
Norway5.368853115523881382.91:34.20.950.030.030.030.030.031.2Norway
Sweden10.33443887392314656497193.71:1.10.110.110.120.120.130.1412.18Sweden
Denmark5.82312124616587109215.41:18.60.90.050.050.050.050.052.72Denmark
Ireland4.921251838071678226987.41:13.50.90.070.070.070.070.079.21Ireland
Finland5.528696484232258005.51:18.00.830.050.050.050.050.051.57Finland
Iceland0.364180621017940.61:178.60.990.010.010.010.010.010.74Iceland
Estonia1.32819311876916754.11:24.30.870.040.040.040.040.041.4Estonia
Latvia1.9071086280257813.21:31.20.720.020.020.020.020.020.35Latvia
Lithuania2.79317053137113215.41:18.60.770.040.040.040.040.040.69Lithuania
Northern Europe104.8389511286949482045435888.71:1.10.140.120.130.130.130.1412.43Northern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt