COVID-19 - Sao Tome and Principe - 20-05-28

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Sao Tome and Principe is included in the following groups: Middle Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 458 229.0 15 3.39% 14.09%
Active cases 378 189.0 15 4.13% 9.3%
Deaths 12 6.0 0 0.0% 9.32%
Recovered 6834.000.0%320.0%
Deaths per infected 2.62%
Recovered per infected14.85%
Active per infected 82.53%
Deaths per recovered 17.65%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
1.62%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 20d 19h 5d 6h
Time to reach a million cases 230d 21h58d 7h
Time to saturate the population182d 13h 46d 2h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 177
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 133 34 4
Active 104 16 11
Deaths 121 28 6
Recovered 147 60 1
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Sao Tome and Principe in its groups

Middle Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt