COVID-19 - Malaysia - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Malaysia is included in the following groups: ASEAN - Southeastern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO Western Pacific Region
Malaysia has a landborder to: Brunei - Indonesia - Thailand

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	14722	45.0	354	2.46%	3.53%
Active cases	3863	11.8	160	4.32%	13.89%
Deaths	152	0.5	6	4.11%	1.29%
Recovered	10707	32.7	188	1.79%	0.46%

Deaths per infected	1.03%
Recovered per infected	72.73%
Active per infected	26.24%
Deaths per recovered	1.42%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.13%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	28d 11h	19d 23h
Time to reach a million cases	173d 7h	121d 14h
Time to saturate the population	316d 15h	222d 4h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	42
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	96	142	11
Active	79	117	4
Deaths	106	154	25
Recovered	86	139	89
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Malaysia

Brunei - Indonesia - Thailand

Malaysia in its groups

ASEAN - Southeastern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO Western Pacific Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt