COVID-19 - Middle Africa - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Middle Africa is a Group with the following members:
Angola - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Congo (Brazzaville) - Congo (Kinshasa) - Equatorial Guinea - Gabon - Sao Tome and Principe

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	17462	9.7	389	2.28%	3.18%
Active cases	11002	6.1	326	3.05%	3.01%
Deaths	413	0.2	3	0.73%	1.87%
Recovered	6047	3.4	60	1.0%	2.3%

Deaths per infected	2.37%
Recovered per infected	34.63%
Active per infected	63.01%
Deaths per recovered	6.83%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.06%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	30d 18h	22d 2h
Time to reach a million cases	179d 16h	129d 4h
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	294d 20h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	135	51
Active	na	109	51
Deaths	na	129	47
Recovered	na	137	65
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Middle Africa

Angola - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Congo (Brazzaville) - Congo (Kinshasa) - Equatorial Guinea - Gabon - Sao Tome and Principe

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Congo (Kinshasa)	91.931	3495	2928	75	492	4.29	3.25	0.87	3.84	16d 11h	80d 1h	3.8	3.2	0.1	0.5	15.2	1:6.6	0.14
Cameroon	26.546	6585	2709	200	3676	3.98	7.24	2.52	2.06	17d 18h	27d 20h	24.8	10.2	0.8	13.8	5.4	1:18.4	0.56
Equatorial Guinea	1.358	1306	1094	12	200	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			96.1	80.5	0.9	14.7	6.0	1:16.7	0.15
Congo (Brazzaville)	5.244	611	412	20	179	1.4	1.07	1.05	2.24	49d 19h	66d 4h	11.7	7.9	0.4	3.4	11.2	1:9.0	0.29
Gabon	2.173	2902	2081	20	801	2.14	1.2	6.2	1.95	32d 16h	11d 12h	133.6	95.8	0.9	36.9	2.5	1:40.0	0.28
Central African Republic	5.496	1173	1146	4	23	6.13	4.23	40.0	0.0	11d 15h	2d 1h	21.3	20.9	0.1	0.4	17.4	1:5.8	0.02
Chad	15.693	820	164	66	590	1.56	-6.67	0.31	4.87	44d 17h	225d 14h	5.2	1.0	0.4	3.8	11.2	1:8.9	0.72
Sao Tome and Principe	0.2	484	404	12	68	0.9	1.09	0.0	0.0	77d 9h		242.0	202.0	6.0	34.0	17.6	1:5.7	0.14
Middle Africa	179.77	17462	11002	413	6047	3.18	3.01	1.87	2.3	22d 2h	37d 11h	9.7	6.1	0.2	3.4	6.8	1:14.6	0.35

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Congo (Kinshasa)	91.931	3495	2928	75	492	15.2	1:6.6	0.14	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.02	Congo (Kinshasa)
Cameroon	26.546	6585	2709	200	3676	5.4	1:18.4	0.56	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.2	Cameroon
Equatorial Guinea	1.358	1306	1094	12	200	6.0	1:16.7	0.15	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.24	Equatorial Guinea
Congo (Brazzaville)	5.244	611	412	20	179	11.2	1:9.0	0.29	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.1	Congo (Brazzaville)
Gabon	2.173	2902	2081	20	801	2.5	1:40.0	0.28	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.25	Gabon
Central African Republic	5.496	1173	1146	4	23	17.4	1:5.8	0.02	0.0	0.0	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	Central African Republic
Chad	15.693	820	164	66	590	11.2	1:8.9	0.72	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.1	0.11	0.11	Chad
Sao Tome and Principe	0.2	484	404	12	68	17.6	1:5.7	0.14	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	1.62	Sao Tome and Principe
Middle Africa	179.77	17462	11002	413	6047	6.8	1:14.6	0.35	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.06	Middle Africa

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt