COVID-19 - Nigeria - 20-05-28

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Nigeria is included in the following groups: Most Populous - Western Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region
Nigeria has a landborder to: Benin - Cameroon - Chad - Niger

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 8915 4.3 182 2.08% 3.45%
Active cases 6064 2.9 86 1.44% 3.12%
Deaths 259 0.1 5 1.97% 2.85%
Recovered 25921.3913.64%2.86%
Deaths per infected 2.91%
Recovered per infected29.07%
Active per infected 68.02%
Deaths per recovered 9.99%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.03%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 33d 14h 20d 10h
Time to reach a million cases 228d 20h139d 4h
Time to saturate the population>1yr 296d 7h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 7
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 55 149 54
Active 41 122 52
Deaths 49 137 39
Recovered 63 151 61
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Nigeria

Benin - Cameroon - Chad - Niger

Nigeria in its groups

Most Populous - Western Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt