COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	457223	436.3	3305	0.73%	0.31%
Active cases	341655	326.0	2937	0.87%	0.21%
Deaths	55422	52.9	215	0.39%	0.01%
Recovered	60146	57.4	153	0.26%	0.08%

Deaths per infected	12.12%
Recovered per infected	13.15%
Active per infected	74.72%
Deaths per recovered	92.15%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	14.29%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	95d 13h	221d 6h
Time to reach a million cases	107d 20h	249d 19h
Time to saturate the population	stable	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	43	136
Active	na	11	88
Deaths	na	8	123
Recovered	na	90	150
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
United Kingdom	66.436	309796	261851	46498	1447	0.28	0.13	0.01	0.07	252d 0h	stable	466.3	394.1	70.0	2.2	3213.4	32.1:1	0.0
Norway	5.368	9468	355	256	8857	0.46	10.57	0.08	0.0	150d 19h	stable	176.4	6.6	4.8	165.0	2.9	1:34.6	0.94
Sweden	10.334	81967	76201	5766	4971	0.38	0.29	0.06	0.0	181d 23h	stable	793.2	737.4	55.8	0.0	116.0	1.2:1	0.06
Denmark	5.823	14586	976	617	12993	0.78	6.66	0.03	0.28	88d 17h	stable	250.5	16.8	10.6	223.1	4.8	1:21.1	0.89
Ireland	4.921	26372	1240	1768	23364	0.2	3.69	0.0	0.0	345d 18h		535.9	25.2	35.9	474.7	7.6	1:13.2	0.89
Finland	5.528	7532	221	331	6980	0.24	4.22	0.12	0.09	291d 12h	>1yr	136.3	4.0	6.0	126.3	4.7	1:21.1	0.93
Iceland	0.364	1932	97	10	1825	0.41	9.73	0.0	0.0	169d 20h		530.8	26.6	2.7	501.4	0.6	1:181.8	0.94
Estonia	1.328	2124	107	63	1954	0.5	8.38	-1.74	0.14	139d 16h		159.9	8.1	4.7	147.1	3.2	1:31.1	0.92
Latvia	1.907	1275	173	32	1070	0.59	0.26	0.0	0.34	117d 11h		66.9	9.1	1.7	56.1	3.0	1:33.4	0.84
Lithuania	2.793	2171	434	81	1656	0.73	2.44	0.25	0.07	94d 16h	277d 14h	77.7	15.5	2.9	59.3	4.9	1:20.4	0.76
Northern Europe	104.8	457223	341655	55422	60146	0.31	0.21	0.01	0.08	221d 6h	stable	436.3	326.0	52.9	57.4	92.2	1:1.1	0.13

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
United Kingdom	66.436	309796	261851	46498	1447	3213.4	32.1:1	0.0	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.16	18.92	United Kingdom
Norway	5.368	9468	355	256	8857	2.9	1:34.6	0.94	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.29	Norway
Sweden	10.334	81967	76201	5766	4971	116.0	1.2:1	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	15.08	Sweden
Denmark	5.823	14586	976	617	12993	4.8	1:21.1	0.89	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	2.86	Denmark
Ireland	4.921	26372	1240	1768	23364	7.6	1:13.2	0.89	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	9.71	Ireland
Finland	5.528	7532	221	331	6980	4.7	1:21.1	0.93	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.62	Finland
Iceland	0.364	1932	97	10	1825	0.6	1:181.8	0.94	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.74	Iceland
Estonia	1.328	2124	107	63	1954	3.2	1:31.1	0.92	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.28	Estonia
Latvia	1.907	1275	173	32	1070	3.0	1:33.4	0.84	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.45	Latvia
Lithuania	2.793	2171	434	81	1656	4.9	1:20.4	0.76	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.78	Lithuania
Northern Europe	104.8	457223	341655	55422	60146	92.2	1:1.1	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.13	14.29	Northern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt