COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	380992	363.5	4240	1.13%	0.73%
Active cases	280317	267.5	3115	1.12%	0.94%
Deaths	47324	45.2	436	0.93%	0.59%
Recovered	53351	50.9	689	1.31%	-1.6%

Deaths per infected	12.42%
Recovered per infected	14.0%
Active per infected	73.58%
Deaths per recovered	88.7%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	12.2%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	61d 22h	94d 22h
Time to reach a million cases	86d 5h	132d 4h
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	22	107
Active	na	12	82
Deaths	na	6	80
Recovered	na	54	184
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
United Kingdom	66.436	281270	240247	39811	1212	0.63	0.47	0.63	0.88	110d 18h	111d 3h	423.4	361.6	59.9	1.8	3284.7	32.8:1	0.0
Norway	5.368	8477	513	237	7727	0.13	1.36	0.08	0.0	>1yr	stable	157.9	9.6	4.4	144.0	3.1	1:32.6	0.91
Sweden	10.334	40803	36261	4542	4971	2.28	4.93	0.54	0.0	30d 17h	129d 1h	394.9	350.9	44.0	0.0	91.4	1:1.1	0.12
Denmark	5.823	11971	641	580	10750	0.3	-3.21	0.42	0.47	231d 8h	165d 15h	205.6	11.0	10.0	184.6	5.4	1:18.5	0.9
Ireland	4.921	25111	754	1659	22698	0.19	2.96	0.16	0.0	>1yr	>1yr	510.2	15.3	33.7	461.2	7.3	1:13.7	0.9
Finland	5.528	6911	1090	321	5500	0.4	2.11	0.38	0.0	175d 13h	182d 2h	125.0	19.7	5.8	99.5	5.8	1:17.1	0.8
Iceland	0.364	1806	2	10	1794	0.01	20.0	0.0	0.0	stable		496.2	0.5	2.7	492.9	0.6	1:178.6	0.99
Estonia	1.328	1880	161	69	1650	0.23	-1.34	0.3	0.27	308d 6h	232d 13h	141.5	12.1	5.2	124.2	4.2	1:23.9	0.88
Latvia	1.907	1079	295	24	760	0.28	-0.54	0.0	0.4	247d 5h		56.6	15.5	1.3	39.9	3.2	1:31.6	0.7
Lithuania	2.793	1684	353	71	1260	0.26	-0.85	0.87	0.54	263d 11h	79d 15h	60.3	12.6	2.5	45.1	5.6	1:17.8	0.75
Northern Europe	104.8	380992	280317	47324	53351	0.73	0.94	0.59	-1.6	94d 22h	117d 7h	363.5	267.5	45.2	50.9	88.7	1:1.1	0.14

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
United Kingdom	66.436	281270	240247	39811	1212	3284.7	32.8:1	0.0	0.14	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.16	16.2	United Kingdom
Norway	5.368	8477	513	237	7727	3.1	1:32.6	0.91	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.19	Norway
Sweden	10.334	40803	36261	4542	4971	91.4	1:1.1	0.12	0.11	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.14	11.88	Sweden
Denmark	5.823	11971	641	580	10750	5.4	1:18.5	0.9	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	2.69	Denmark
Ireland	4.921	25111	754	1659	22698	7.3	1:13.7	0.9	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	9.11	Ireland
Finland	5.528	6911	1090	321	5500	5.8	1:17.1	0.8	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	1.57	Finland
Iceland	0.364	1806	2	10	1794	0.6	1:178.6	0.99	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.74	Iceland
Estonia	1.328	1880	161	69	1650	4.2	1:23.9	0.88	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.4	Estonia
Latvia	1.907	1079	295	24	760	3.2	1:31.6	0.7	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.34	Latvia
Lithuania	2.793	1684	353	71	1260	5.6	1:17.8	0.75	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.69	Lithuania
Northern Europe	104.8	380992	280317	47324	53351	88.7	1:1.1	0.14	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.14	12.2	Northern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt