COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	2132845	2035.2	27552	1.31%	1.34%
Active cases	1914606	1826.9	24760	1.31%	1.09%
Deaths	68700	65.6	637	0.94%	0.72%
Recovered	149539	142.7	2155	1.46%	1.17%

Deaths per infected	3.22%
Recovered per infected	7.01%
Active per infected	89.77%
Deaths per recovered	45.94%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	17.72%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	53d 7h	51d 21h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	299d 12h	291d 16h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	192	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	42	55
Active	na	8	68
Deaths	na	23	55
Recovered	na	107	47
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
United Kingdom	66.436	1593250	1532140	57648	3462	1.0	0.82	0.72	0.79	69d 12h	96d 17h	2398.2	2306.2	86.8	5.2	1665.2	16.7:1	0.0
Norway	5.368	35193	16867	328	17998	1.44	2.6	0.65	0.0	48d 11h	107d 11h	655.7	314.2	6.1	335.3	1.8	1:54.9	0.51
Sweden	10.334	243129	236448	6681	4971	3.18	2.66	0.67	0.0	22d 3h	104d 5h	2352.8	2288.2	64.7	0.0	134.4	1.3:1	0.02
Denmark	5.823	77236	15592	816	60828	1.7	1.23	0.68	1.39	41d 4h	102d 5h	1326.4	267.8	14.0	1044.7	1.3	1:74.6	0.79
Ireland	4.921	71699	46292	2043	23364	0.35	0.45	0.13	0.0	198d 23h	>1yr	1456.9	940.6	41.5	474.7	8.7	1:11.4	0.33
Finland	5.528	23766	6573	393	16800	1.89	0.46	0.69	1.96	36d 22h	101d 1h	430.0	118.9	7.1	303.9	2.3	1:42.7	0.71
Iceland	0.364	5346	176	26	5144	0.26	-4.11	0.0	0.33	266d 17h		1468.7	48.4	7.1	1413.2	0.5	1:196.1	0.96
Estonia	1.328	11323	4509	104	6710	3.09	2.14	2.39	2.7	22d 17h	29d 7h	852.4	339.4	7.8	505.1	1.6	1:64.5	0.59
Latvia	1.907	15808	13899	190	1719	3.81	3.23	4.24	1.01	18d 12h	16d 16h	829.0	728.9	10.0	90.2	11.1	1:9.0	0.11
Lithuania	2.793	56095	42110	471	13514	3.58	2.64	3.09	2.97	19d 16h	22d 18h	2008.1	1507.5	16.9	483.8	3.5	1:28.7	0.24
Northern Europe	104.8	2132845	1914606	68700	149539	1.34	1.09	0.72	1.17	51d 21h	96d 13h	2035.2	1826.9	65.6	142.7	45.9	1:2.2	0.07

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
United Kingdom	66.436	1593250	1532140	57648	3462	1665.2	16.7:1	0.0	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	23.45	United Kingdom
Norway	5.368	35193	16867	328	17998	1.8	1:54.9	0.51	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.65	Norway
Sweden	10.334	243129	236448	6681	4971	134.4	1.3:1	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	17.47	Sweden
Denmark	5.823	77236	15592	816	60828	1.3	1:74.6	0.79	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3.79	Denmark
Ireland	4.921	71699	46292	2043	23364	8.7	1:11.4	0.33	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	11.22	Ireland
Finland	5.528	23766	6573	393	16800	2.3	1:42.7	0.71	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.92	Finland
Iceland	0.364	5346	176	26	5144	0.5	1:196.1	0.96	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.01	1.93	Iceland
Estonia	1.328	11323	4509	104	6710	1.6	1:64.5	0.59	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.12	Estonia
Latvia	1.907	15808	13899	190	1719	11.1	1:9.0	0.11	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	2.69	Latvia
Lithuania	2.793	56095	42110	471	13514	3.5	1:28.7	0.24	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4.56	Lithuania
Northern Europe	104.8	2132845	1914606	68700	149539	45.9	1:2.2	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	17.72	Northern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt