COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	792090	755.8	16734	2.16%	2.3%
Active cases	658511	628.4	15838	2.46%	2.14%
Deaths	51991	49.6	95	0.18%	0.1%
Recovered	81588	77.9	801	0.99%	0.95%

Deaths per infected	6.56%
Recovered per infected	10.3%
Active per infected	83.14%
Deaths per recovered	63.72%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	13.41%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	32d 11h	30d 10h
Time to reach a million cases	10d 21h	10d 5h
Time to saturate the population	228d 18h	214d 15h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	49	22
Active	na	10	61
Deaths	na	18	118
Recovered	na	114	57
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
United Kingdom	66.436	578390	533133	42769	2488	2.73	2.43	0.11	0.59	25d 18h	>1yr	870.6	802.5	64.4	3.7	1719.0	17.2:1	0.0
Norway	5.368	15388	3250	275	11863	1.26	0.9	0.0	1.2	55d 12h		286.7	60.5	5.1	221.0	2.3	1:43.1	0.77
Sweden	10.334	98451	92557	5894	4971	0.87	0.73	-0.01	0.0	79d 22h		952.7	895.7	57.0	0.0	118.6	1.2:1	0.05
Denmark	5.823	32131	5491	665	25975	1.27	-2.4	0.21	1.84	54d 23h	327d 2h	551.8	94.3	11.4	446.1	2.6	1:39.1	0.81
Ireland	4.921	40703	15518	1821	23364	1.37	3.01	0.08	0.0	51d 1h	stable	827.0	315.3	37.0	474.7	7.8	1:12.8	0.57
Finland	5.528	11580	2734	346	8500	1.91	4.0	0.06	0.99	36d 17h	stable	209.5	49.5	6.3	153.8	4.1	1:24.6	0.73
Iceland	0.364	3373	915	10	2448	2.92	6.0	0.0	1.15	24d 1h		926.6	251.4	2.7	672.5	0.4	1:243.9	0.73
Estonia	1.328	3809	835	68	2906	1.1	1.94	0.0	0.54	63d 13h		286.7	62.9	5.1	218.8	2.3	1:42.7	0.76
Latvia	1.907	2507	1145	40	1322	3.75	6.42	1.04	0.23	18d 19h	67d 1h	131.5	60.0	2.1	69.3	3.0	1:33.0	0.53
Lithuania	2.793	5758	2933	103	2722	2.12	1.99	1.67	1.29	33d 1h	41d 22h	206.1	105.0	3.7	97.4	3.8	1:26.5	0.47
Northern Europe	104.8	792090	658511	51991	81588	2.3	2.14	0.1	0.95	30d 10h	>1yr	755.8	628.4	49.6	77.9	63.7	1:1.6	0.1

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
United Kingdom	66.436	578390	533133	42769	2488	1719.0	17.2:1	0.0	0.07	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.1	17.4	United Kingdom
Norway	5.368	15388	3250	275	11863	2.3	1:43.1	0.77	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.38	Norway
Sweden	10.334	98451	92557	5894	4971	118.6	1.2:1	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	15.42	Sweden
Denmark	5.823	32131	5491	665	25975	2.6	1:39.1	0.81	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	3.09	Denmark
Ireland	4.921	40703	15518	1821	23364	7.8	1:12.8	0.57	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	10.0	Ireland
Finland	5.528	11580	2734	346	8500	4.1	1:24.6	0.73	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	1.69	Finland
Iceland	0.364	3373	915	10	2448	0.4	1:243.9	0.73	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.74	Iceland
Estonia	1.328	3809	835	68	2906	2.3	1:42.7	0.76	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.38	Estonia
Latvia	1.907	2507	1145	40	1322	3.0	1:33.0	0.53	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.57	Latvia
Lithuania	2.793	5758	2933	103	2722	3.8	1:26.5	0.47	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.0	Lithuania
Northern Europe	104.8	792090	658511	51991	81588	63.7	1:1.6	0.1	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.08	13.41	Northern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt