COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 792090 755.8 16734 2.16% 2.3%
Active cases 658511 628.4 15838 2.46% 2.14%
Deaths 51991 49.6 95 0.18% 0.1%
Recovered 8158877.98010.99%0.95%
Deaths per infected 6.56%
Recovered per infected10.3%
Active per infected 83.14%
Deaths per recovered 63.72%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
13.41%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 32d 11h 30d 10h
Time to reach a million cases 10d 21h10d 5h
Time to saturate the population228d 18h 214d 15h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 49 22
Active na 10 61
Deaths na 18 118
Recovered na 114 57
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
United Kingdom66.4365783905331334276924882.732.430.110.5925d 18h>1yr870.6802.564.43.71719.017.2:10.0
Norway5.368153883250275118631.260.90.01.255d 12h286.760.55.1221.02.31:43.10.77
Sweden10.3349845192557589449710.870.73-0.010.079d 22h952.7895.757.00.0118.61.2:10.05
Denmark5.823321315491665259751.27-2.40.211.8454d 23h327d 2h551.894.311.4446.12.61:39.10.81
Ireland4.92140703155181821233641.373.010.080.051d 1hstable827.0315.337.0474.77.81:12.80.57
Finland5.52811580273434685001.914.00.060.9936d 17hstable209.549.56.3153.84.11:24.60.73
Iceland0.36433739151024482.926.00.01.1524d 1h926.6251.42.7672.50.41:243.90.73
Estonia1.32838098356829061.11.940.00.5463d 13h286.762.95.1218.82.31:42.70.76
Latvia1.907250711454013223.756.421.040.2318d 19h67d 1h131.560.02.169.33.01:33.00.53
Lithuania2.7935758293310327222.121.991.671.2933d 1h41d 22h206.1105.03.797.43.81:26.50.47
Northern Europe104.879209065851151991815882.32.140.10.9530d 10h>1yr755.8628.449.677.963.71:1.60.1

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
United Kingdom66.4365783905331334276924881719.017.2:10.00.070.080.090.090.117.4United Kingdom
Norway5.368153883250275118632.31:43.10.770.020.020.020.020.021.38Norway
Sweden10.334984519255758944971118.61.2:10.050.060.060.060.060.0615.42Sweden
Denmark5.823321315491665259752.61:39.10.810.020.020.020.020.023.09Denmark
Ireland4.92140703155181821233647.81:12.80.570.040.050.050.050.0510.0Ireland
Finland5.52811580273434685004.11:24.60.730.030.030.030.030.041.69Finland
Iceland0.36433739151024480.41:243.90.730.00.00.00.00.00.74Iceland
Estonia1.32838098356829062.31:42.70.760.020.020.020.020.021.38Estonia
Latvia1.907250711454013223.01:33.00.530.020.020.020.020.020.57Latvia
Lithuania2.7935758293310327223.81:26.50.470.020.020.020.020.021.0Lithuania
Northern Europe104.8792090658511519918158863.71:1.60.10.070.070.080.080.0813.41Northern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt