COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 380992 363.5 4240 1.13% 0.73%
Active cases 280317 267.5 3115 1.12% 0.94%
Deaths 47324 45.2 436 0.93% 0.59%
Recovered 5335150.96891.31%-1.6%
Deaths per infected 12.42%
Recovered per infected14.0%
Active per infected 73.58%
Deaths per recovered 88.7%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 61d 22h 94d 22h
Time to reach a million cases 86d 5h132d 4h
Time to saturate the population>1yr stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 22 107
Active na 12 82
Deaths na 6 80
Recovered na 54 184
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
United Kingdom66.4362812702402473981112120.630.470.630.88110d 18h111d 3h423.4361.659.91.83284.732.8:10.0
Sweden10.3344080336261454249712.284.930.540.030d 17h129d 1h394.9350.944.00.091.41:1.10.12
Denmark5.82311971641580107500.3-3.210.420.47231d 8h165d 15h205.611.010.0184.65.41:18.50.9
Finland5.5286911109032155000.42.110.380.0175d 13h182d 2h125.019.75.899.55.81:17.10.8
Estonia1.32818801616916500.23-1.340.30.27308d 6h232d 13h141.512.15.2124.24.21:23.90.88
Latvia1.9071079295247600.28-0.540.00.4247d 5h56.615.51.339.93.21:31.60.7
Lithuania2.79316843537112600.26-0.850.870.54263d 11h79d 15h60.312.62.545.15.61:17.80.75
Northern Europe104.838099228031747324533510.730.940.59-1.694d 22h117d 7h363.5267.545.250.988.71:1.10.14

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
United Kingdom66.4362812702402473981112123284.732.8: Kingdom
Northern Europe104.8380992280317473245335188.71: Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt