COVID-19 - Northern Europe - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 2132845 2035.2 27552 1.31% 1.34%
Active cases 1914606 1826.9 24760 1.31% 1.09%
Deaths 68700 65.6 637 0.94% 0.72%
Recovered 149539142.721551.46%1.17%
Deaths per infected 3.22%
Recovered per infected7.01%
Active per infected 89.77%
Deaths per recovered 45.94%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
17.72%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 53d 7h 51d 21h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population299d 12h 291d 16h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 42 55
Active na 8 68
Deaths na 23 55
Recovered na 107 47
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Europe

Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
United Kingdom66.436159325015321405764834621.00.820.720.7969d 12h96d 17h2398.22306.286.85.21665.216.7:10.0
Norway5.3683519316867328179981.442.60.650.048d 11h107d 11h655.7314.26.1335.31.81:54.90.51
Sweden10.334243129236448668149713.182.660.670.022d 3h104d 5h2352.82288.264.70.0134.41.3:10.02
Denmark5.8237723615592816608281.71.230.681.3941d 4h102d 5h1326.4267.814.01044.71.31:74.60.79
Ireland4.92171699462922043233640.350.450.130.0198d 23h>1yr1456.9940.641.5474.78.71:11.40.33
Finland5.528237666573393168001.890.460.691.9636d 22h101d 1h430.0118.97.1303.92.31:42.70.71
Iceland0.36453461762651440.26-4.110.00.33266d 17h1468.748.47.11413.20.51:196.10.96
Estonia1.32811323450910467103.092.142.392.722d 17h29d 7h852.4339.47.8505.11.61:64.50.59
Latvia1.907158081389919017193.813.234.241.0118d 12h16d 16h829.0728.910.090.211.11:9.00.11
Lithuania2.7935609542110471135143.582.643.092.9719d 16h22d 18h2008.11507.516.9483.83.51:28.70.24
Northern Europe104.821328451914606687001495391.341.090.721.1751d 21h96d 13h2035.21826.965.6142.745.91:2.20.07

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
United Kingdom66.436159325015321405764834621665.216.7:10.00.040.040.040.040.0423.45United Kingdom
Norway5.3683519316867328179981.81:54.90.510.010.010.010.010.011.65Norway
Sweden10.33424312923644866814971134.41.3:10.020.030.030.030.030.0417.47Sweden
Denmark5.8237723615592816608281.31:74.60.790.010.010.010.010.013.79Denmark
Ireland4.92171699462922043233648.71:11.40.330.030.030.030.030.0311.22Ireland
Finland5.528237666573393168002.31:42.70.710.020.020.020.020.021.92Finland
Iceland0.36453461762651440.51:196.10.960.00.00.00.00.011.93Iceland
Estonia1.32811323450910467101.61:64.50.590.010.010.010.010.012.12Estonia
Latvia1.9071580813899190171911.11:9.00.110.010.010.010.020.022.69Latvia
Lithuania2.7935609542110471135143.51:28.70.240.010.010.010.010.014.56Lithuania
Northern Europe104.8213284519146066870014953945.91:2.20.070.030.030.030.040.0417.72Northern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt