Northern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Denmark - Estonia - Finland - Iceland - Ireland - Latvia - Lithuania - Norway - Sweden - United Kingdom
|
|
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though. | ||
Last days rate | Last average rate | |
---|---|---|
Time to double cases | 53d 7h | 51d 21h |
Time to reach a million cases | ||
Time to saturate the population | 299d 12h | 291d 16h |
A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview. | |||
Total: | 192 | Population | na |
---|---|---|---|
Total cases | Cases per 100.000 | Average grow rate (5 days) | |
Infected | na | 42 | 55 |
Active | na | 8 | 68 |
Deaths | na | 23 | 55 |
Recovered | na | 107 | 47 |
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both! |
Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Deaths | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | |
absolute values | Percentage growthrate 5d | Time to double | Cases per 100.000 | % / ratio | ||||||||||||||
United Kingdom | 66.436 | 1593250 | 1532140 | 57648 | 3462 | 1.0 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 69d 12h | 96d 17h | 2398.2 | 2306.2 | 86.8 | 5.2 | 1665.2 | 16.7:1 | 0.0 |
Norway | 5.368 | 35193 | 16867 | 328 | 17998 | 1.44 | 2.6 | 0.65 | 0.0 | 48d 11h | 107d 11h | 655.7 | 314.2 | 6.1 | 335.3 | 1.8 | 1:54.9 | 0.51 |
Sweden | 10.334 | 243129 | 236448 | 6681 | 4971 | 3.18 | 2.66 | 0.67 | 0.0 | 22d 3h | 104d 5h | 2352.8 | 2288.2 | 64.7 | 0.0 | 134.4 | 1.3:1 | 0.02 |
Denmark | 5.823 | 77236 | 15592 | 816 | 60828 | 1.7 | 1.23 | 0.68 | 1.39 | 41d 4h | 102d 5h | 1326.4 | 267.8 | 14.0 | 1044.7 | 1.3 | 1:74.6 | 0.79 |
Ireland | 4.921 | 71699 | 46292 | 2043 | 23364 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.0 | 198d 23h | >1yr | 1456.9 | 940.6 | 41.5 | 474.7 | 8.7 | 1:11.4 | 0.33 |
Finland | 5.528 | 23766 | 6573 | 393 | 16800 | 1.89 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 1.96 | 36d 22h | 101d 1h | 430.0 | 118.9 | 7.1 | 303.9 | 2.3 | 1:42.7 | 0.71 |
Iceland | 0.364 | 5346 | 176 | 26 | 5144 | 0.26 | -4.11 | 0.0 | 0.33 | 266d 17h | 1468.7 | 48.4 | 7.1 | 1413.2 | 0.5 | 1:196.1 | 0.96 | |
Estonia | 1.328 | 11323 | 4509 | 104 | 6710 | 3.09 | 2.14 | 2.39 | 2.7 | 22d 17h | 29d 7h | 852.4 | 339.4 | 7.8 | 505.1 | 1.6 | 1:64.5 | 0.59 |
Latvia | 1.907 | 15808 | 13899 | 190 | 1719 | 3.81 | 3.23 | 4.24 | 1.01 | 18d 12h | 16d 16h | 829.0 | 728.9 | 10.0 | 90.2 | 11.1 | 1:9.0 | 0.11 |
Lithuania | 2.793 | 56095 | 42110 | 471 | 13514 | 3.58 | 2.64 | 3.09 | 2.97 | 19d 16h | 22d 18h | 2008.1 | 1507.5 | 16.9 | 483.8 | 3.5 | 1:28.7 | 0.24 |
Northern Europe | 104.8 | 2132845 | 1914606 | 68700 | 149539 | 1.34 | 1.09 | 0.72 | 1.17 | 51d 21h | 96d 13h | 2035.2 | 1826.9 | 65.6 | 142.7 | 45.9 | 1:2.2 | 0.07 |
Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | Deaths per infected ... days ago | Possible Total % | Country | |||||
absolute values | % / ratio | 0d | 5d | 7d | 10d | 14d | |||||||||
United Kingdom | 66.436 | 1593250 | 1532140 | 57648 | 3462 | 1665.2 | 16.7:1 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 23.45 | United Kingdom |
Norway | 5.368 | 35193 | 16867 | 328 | 17998 | 1.8 | 1:54.9 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.65 | Norway |
Sweden | 10.334 | 243129 | 236448 | 6681 | 4971 | 134.4 | 1.3:1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 17.47 | Sweden |
Denmark | 5.823 | 77236 | 15592 | 816 | 60828 | 1.3 | 1:74.6 | 0.79 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 3.79 | Denmark |
Ireland | 4.921 | 71699 | 46292 | 2043 | 23364 | 8.7 | 1:11.4 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 11.22 | Ireland |
Finland | 5.528 | 23766 | 6573 | 393 | 16800 | 2.3 | 1:42.7 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1.92 | Finland |
Iceland | 0.364 | 5346 | 176 | 26 | 5144 | 0.5 | 1:196.1 | 0.96 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.93 | Iceland |
Estonia | 1.328 | 11323 | 4509 | 104 | 6710 | 1.6 | 1:64.5 | 0.59 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 2.12 | Estonia |
Latvia | 1.907 | 15808 | 13899 | 190 | 1719 | 11.1 | 1:9.0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 2.69 | Latvia |
Lithuania | 2.793 | 56095 | 42110 | 471 | 13514 | 3.5 | 1:28.7 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 4.56 | Lithuania |
Northern Europe | 104.8 | 2132845 | 1914606 | 68700 | 149539 | 45.9 | 1:2.2 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 17.72 | Northern Europe |
A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected
county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first
reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to
the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally
other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are
more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number.
Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get
other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results. Links (German): Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt |