COVID-19 - Southern Africa - 20-08-02

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Namibia - South Africa

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 518076 776.8 8350 1.64% 2.18%
Active cases 160771 241.1 3348 2.13% -1.41%
Deaths 8441 12.7 218 2.65% 2.38%
Recovered 348864523.147841.39%3.65%
Deaths per infected 1.63%
Recovered per infected67.34%
Active per infected 31.03%
Deaths per recovered 2.42%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
3.42%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 42d 15h 32d 3h
Time to reach a million cases 40d 11h30d 11h
Time to saturate the population298d 23h 225d 3h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 21 44
Active na 24 149
Deaths na 31 27
Recovered na 20 17
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Africa

Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Namibia - South Africa

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
South Africa58.77551148515589283663472272.16-1.522.373.6532d 8h29d 12h870.2265.214.2590.82.41:41.50.68
Namibia2.45922942096111873.692.556.7212.3919d 3h10d 15h93.385.20.47.65.91:17.00.08
Eswatini1.093277515184312142.941.642.013.4923d 22h34d 18h253.8138.93.9111.13.51:28.20.44
Botswana2.258047392631.761.930.00.039d 17h35.732.80.12.83.21:31.50.08
Lesotho2.11718526191737.487.443.216.219d 14h21d 23h34.024.90.98.211.01:9.10.24
Southern Africa66.6951807616077184413488642.18-1.412.383.6532d 3h29d 11h776.8241.112.7523.12.41:41.30.67

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
South Africa58.77551148515589283663472272.41:41.50.680.020.020.020.020.023.85South Africa
Namibia2.45922942096111875.91:17.00.080.00.010.010.010.010.12Namibia
Eswatini1.093277515184312143.51:28.20.440.020.020.020.020.021.06Eswatini
Botswana2.258047392633.21:31.50.080.00.00.00.00.00.02Botswana
Lesotho2.117185261917311.01:9.10.240.030.030.040.050.050.24Lesotho
Southern Africa66.6951807616077184413488642.41:41.30.670.020.020.020.020.023.42Southern Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt