COVID-19 - Southern Africa - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Namibia - South Africa

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	814877	1221.9	3455	0.43%	0.38%
Active cases	41937	62.9	-3131	-6.95%	2.35%
Deaths	21722	32.6	91	0.42%	0.36%
Recovered	751218	1126.4	6495	0.87%	0.19%

Deaths per infected	2.67%
Recovered per infected	92.19%
Active per infected	5.15%
Deaths per recovered	2.89%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	8.8%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	163d 3h	181d 5h
Time to reach a million cases	48d 4h	53d 12h
Time to saturate the population	stable	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	192	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	66	130
Active	na	87	42
Deaths	na	42	86
Recovered	na	46	123
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Africa

Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Namibia - South Africa

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
South Africa	58.775	781941	37687	21378	722876	0.37	2.35	0.37	0.18	188d 6h	189d 7h	1330.4	64.1	36.4	1229.9	3.0	1:33.8	0.92
Namibia	2.459	14207	670	149	13388	0.49	6.1	0.28	0.2	142d 2h	251d 14h	577.8	27.2	6.1	544.5	1.1	1:90.1	0.94
Eswatini	1.093	6362	283	120	5959	0.46	3.13	0.0	0.24	152d 8h		582.0	25.9	11.0	545.1	2.0	1:49.8	0.94
Botswana	2.25	10258	2510	31	7717	1.36	2.14	0.0	1.15	51d 5h		455.9	111.6	1.4	343.0	0.4	1:250.0	0.75
Lesotho	2.11	2109	787	44	1278	0.22	0.55	0.0	0.03	315d 8h		100.0	37.3	2.1	60.6	3.4	1:29.1	0.61
Southern Africa	66.69	814877	41937	21722	751218	0.38	2.35	0.36	0.19	181d 5h	191d 8h	1221.9	62.9	32.6	1126.4	2.9	1:34.6	0.92

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
South Africa	58.775	781941	37687	21378	722876	3.0	1:33.8	0.92	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	9.83	South Africa
Namibia	2.459	14207	670	149	13388	1.1	1:90.1	0.94	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.64	Namibia
Eswatini	1.093	6362	283	120	5959	2.0	1:49.8	0.94	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.97	Eswatini
Botswana	2.25	10258	2510	31	7717	0.4	1:250.0	0.75	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.37	Botswana
Lesotho	2.11	2109	787	44	1278	3.4	1:29.1	0.61	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.56	Lesotho
Southern Africa	66.69	814877	41937	21722	751218	2.9	1:34.6	0.92	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	8.8	Southern Africa

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt