COVID-19 - Southern Africa - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Namibia - South Africa

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 710844 1065.9 1535 0.22% 0.21%
Active cases 56124 84.2 43 0.08% 0.36%
Deaths 17847 26.8 140 0.79% 0.51%
Recovered 636873955.013520.21%0.14%
Deaths per infected 2.51%
Recovered per infected89.59%
Active per infected 7.9%
Deaths per recovered 2.8%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
7.23%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 320d 15h 326d 11h
Time to reach a million cases 157d 21h160d 18h
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 29 138
Active na 67 92
Deaths na 30 67
Recovered na 24 129
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Africa

Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Namibia - South Africa

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
South Africa58.77568835250724175476200810.210.480.50.13336d 0h137d 17h1171.286.329.91055.02.81:35.30.9
Namibia2.45911829192412797780.35-1.750.640.69200d 3h107d 23h481.178.25.2397.71.31:76.90.83
Eswatini1.093564427711352540.27-2.720.360.4259d 1h193d 13h516.325.310.3480.62.11:46.50.93
Botswana2.2532192367188340.3-0.632.53.49234d 5h28d 1h143.1105.20.837.12.21:46.30.26
Lesotho2.111800832429261.372.761.010.050d 22h68d 18h85.339.42.043.94.51:22.00.51
Southern Africa66.6971084456124178476368730.210.360.510.14326d 11h136d 22h1065.984.226.8955.02.81:35.70.9

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
South Africa58.77568835250724175476200812.81:35.30.90.030.030.030.030.038.07South Africa
Namibia2.45911829192412797781.31:76.90.830.010.010.010.010.011.4Namibia
Eswatini1.093564427711352542.11:46.50.930.020.020.020.020.022.79Eswatini
Botswana2.2532192367188342.21:46.30.260.010.010.010.010.010.22Botswana
Lesotho2.111800832429264.51:22.00.510.020.020.030.030.030.54Lesotho
Southern Africa66.6971084456124178476368732.81:35.70.90.030.030.030.030.037.23Southern Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt