COVID-19 - Chile - 20-04-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Chile is included in the following groups: South America - America - UNR Latin American and Caribbean Group - WHO Region of the Americas
Chile has a landborder to: Argentina - Bolivia - Peru

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 5972 31.3 426 7.68% 9.87%
Active cases 4641 24.3 258 5.89% 5.97%
Deaths 57 0.3 9 18.75% 17.44%
Recovered 12746.715914.26%22.33%
Deaths per infected 0.95%
Recovered per infected21.33%
Active per infected 77.71%
Deaths per recovered 4.47%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 9d 8h 7d 8h
Time to reach a million cases 69d 4h54d 9h
Time to saturate the population109d 1h 85d 17h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 61
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 25 43 71
Active 25 46 81
Deaths 48 46 14
Recovered 48 27 32
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt