COVID-19 - UNR African Group - 20-06-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR African Group is a Group with the following members:
Algeria - Angola - Benin - Botswana - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Comoros - Congo (Brazzaville) - Congo (Kinshasa) - Cote d'Ivoire - Djibouti - Egypt - Equatorial Guinea - Eritrea - Eswatini - Ethiopia - Gabon - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Kenya - Lesotho - Liberia - Libya - Madagascar - Malawi - Mali - Mauritius - Mayotte - Morocco - Mozambique - Namibia - Niger - Nigeria - Reunion - Rwanda - Sao Tome and Principe - Senegal - Seychelles - Sierra Leone - Somalia - South Africa - South Sudan - Sudan - Tanzania - Togo - Tunisia - Uganda - Western Sahara - Zambia - Zimbabwe

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 181948 14.2 6589 3.76% 3.74%
Active cases 95792 7.5 3383 3.66% 2.1%
Deaths 5002 0.4 134 2.75% 2.44%
Recovered 811546.330723.93%4.14%
Deaths per infected 2.75%
Recovered per infected44.6%
Active per infected 52.65%
Deaths per recovered 6.16%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.11%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 18d 19h 18d 21h
Time to reach a million cases 46d 4h46d 10h
Time to saturate the population240d 4h 241d 9h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 127 40
Active na 99 60
Deaths na 118 41
Recovered na 123 35
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR African Group

Algeria - Angola - Benin - Botswana - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Comoros - Congo (Brazzaville) - Congo (Kinshasa) - Cote d'Ivoire - Djibouti - Egypt - Equatorial Guinea - Eritrea - Eswatini - Ethiopia - Gabon - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Kenya - Lesotho - Liberia - Libya - Madagascar - Malawi - Mali - Mauritius - Mayotte - Morocco - Mozambique - Namibia - Niger - Nigeria - Reunion - Rwanda - Sao Tome and Principe - Senegal - Seychelles - Sierra Leone - Somalia - South Africa - South Sudan - Sudan - Tanzania - Togo - Tunisia - Uganda - Western Sahara - Zambia - Zimbabwe

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Egypt100.153261222876119885384.332.863.034.8516d 8h23d 5h32.622.81.28.514.01:7.10.26
South Africa58.7754597320763952242586.013.555.236.011d 21h13d 14h78.235.31.641.33.91:25.50.53
Algeria43.010050272169866311.1-1.140.861.8363d 2h80d 14h23.46.31.615.410.51:9.50.66
Morocco35.845815162820873150.8-18.040.294.3487d 1h237d 22h22.71.80.620.42.81:35.20.9
Tunisia11.722108761499770.06-0.830.420.1stable166d 16h9.30.50.48.35.01:19.90.9
Burkina Faso20.8788870537650.962.930.01.172d 10h4.30.30.33.76.91:14.40.86
Senegal16.209424916904725122.59-0.051.414.1627d 2h49d 15h26.210.40.315.51.91:53.50.59
Congo (Kinshasa)91.93138783259825373.953.532.42.4617d 21h29d 4h4.23.50.10.615.31:6.50.14
Cameroon26.5467599280021245873.540.490.65.1119d 21h116d 8h28.610.50.817.34.61:21.60.6
Nigeria206.1412233806534238262.951.782.193.4523d 20h31d 22h5.93.90.21.98.91:11.20.31
Ghana30.281946258714435473.232.213.223.2921d 18h21d 21h31.219.40.111.71.21:80.60.37
Cote d'Ivoire23.74355717713617503.814.351.781.8118d 12h39d 5h15.07.50.27.42.11:48.50.49
Rwanda12.37443114622832.713.6720.01.4925d 21h3d 19h3.51.20.02.30.71:140.80.66
Ethiopia98.66519341633202819.018.299.913.878d 0h7d 8h2.01.70.00.37.11:14.00.15
Kenya47.56426001811837065.173.592.766.013d 17h25d 10h5.53.80.21.511.81:8.50.27
Mauritius1.2663373103240.120.00.00.12>1yr26.60.20.825.63.11:32.40.96
Tanzania55.891509305211830.00.00.00.00.90.50.00.311.51:8.70.36
Equatorial Guinea1.35813061094122000.00.00.00.096.180.50.914.76.01:16.70.15
Congo (Brazzaville)5.244683451222102.31.020.00.3430d 12h13.08.60.44.010.51:9.50.31
Liberia4.475345130301853.123.132.172.0722d 13h32d 7h7.72.90.74.116.21:6.20.54
Benin11.73326110731511.483.010.00.5447d 7h2.20.90.01.32.01:50.30.58
Sudan42.3616081370835920143.291.43.114.8321d 10h22d 14h14.48.80.84.817.81:5.60.33
Zambia17.381108917079120.00.00.00.06.31.00.05.20.81:129.90.84
Gabon2.17331012247218333.173.264.532.9322d 4h15d 15h142.7103.41.038.32.51:39.70.27
Somalia15.89322891776824312.511.530.03.0827d 23h14.411.20.52.719.01:5.30.19
Togo7.538487234132401.921.660.02.2636d 9h6.53.10.23.25.41:18.50.49
Central African Republic5.496157015285378.086.490.05.228d 22h28.627.80.10.713.51:7.40.02
Niger22.31597038658670.25-4.730.00.45278d 8h4.30.20.33.97.51:13.30.89
Guinea12.218411712372328571.38-4.020.04.5950d 12h33.710.10.223.40.81:123.50.69
Chad15.69383695696721.14-9.40.614.0761d 2h114d 17h5.30.60.44.310.31:9.70.8
Djibouti1.078416923282618153.173.411.632.3522d 4h42d 18h386.6215.92.4168.31.41:69.90.44
Eswatini1.0933229532241.92-3.080.02.7136d 9h29.58.70.320.51.31:74.60.7
Madagascar25.68102680682124.453.543.332.9615d 21h21d 3h4.03.10.00.83.81:26.50.21
Zimbabwe15.162792424336.626.150.02.6710d 19h1.81.60.00.212.11:8.30.12
Mozambique30.07409281212610.269.290.04.257d 2h1.40.90.00.41.61:62.90.31
Uganda40.35935110825.364.3202.7813d 6h1.51.30.00.20.0na0.14
Libya6.752561995528.8310.580.00.08d 4h3.82.90.10.89.61:10.40.2
Guinea-Bissau1.8613681203121530.43-1.1710.037.74160d 8h7d 6h73.564.70.68.27.81:12.80.11
Mali18.431523588908452.993.432.251.8723d 12h31d 4h8.33.20.54.610.71:9.40.55
Comoros0.85141722676.270.970.021.5111d 9h16.68.50.27.93.01:33.40.48
Malawi18.144093504554.043.880.05.8517d 12h2.31.90.00.37.31:13.80.13
Sao Tome and Principe0.249941912680.620.740.00.0112d 9h249.5209.56.034.017.61:5.70.14
South Sudan12.929949781060.00.00.00.07.77.60.10.0166.71.7:10.01
Sierra Leone7.08946298486001.81-2.10.434.2938d 14h159d 18h13.44.20.78.58.01:12.50.63
UNR African Group1280.39181948957925002811543.742.12.444.1418d 21h28d 18h14.27.50.46.36.21:16.20.45

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Egypt100.1532612228761198853814.01:7.10.260.040.040.050.060.070.32Egypt
South Africa58.7754597320763952242583.91:25.50.530.020.030.030.030.040.44South Africa
Algeria43.0100502721698663110.51:9.50.660.070.070.070.080.080.44Algeria
Morocco35.845815162820873152.81:35.20.90.030.030.030.030.030.16Morocco
Tunisia11.722108761499775.01:19.90.90.050.050.050.050.050.11Tunisia
Burkina Faso20.8788870537656.91:14.40.860.060.060.060.060.070.07Burkina Faso
Senegal16.209424916904725121.91:53.50.590.010.010.010.010.020.08Senegal
Congo (Kinshasa)91.931387832598253715.31:6.50.140.020.020.030.030.040.02Congo (Kinshasa)
Cameroon26.5467599280021245874.61:21.60.60.030.030.040.040.040.22Cameroon
Nigeria206.1412233806534238268.91:11.20.310.030.030.030.040.040.04Nigeria
Ghana30.281946258714435471.21:80.60.370.00.010.010.010.010.04Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire23.74355717713617502.11:48.50.490.010.010.010.010.020.04Cote d'Ivoire
Rwanda12.37443114622830.71:140.80.660.00.010.010.010.010.0Rwanda
Ethiopia98.66519341633202817.11:14.00.150.010.010.020.020.030.01Ethiopia
Kenya47.564260018118370611.81:8.50.270.030.040.040.050.070.05Kenya
Mauritius1.2663373103243.11:32.40.960.030.030.030.030.030.21Mauritius
Tanzania55.8915093052118311.51:8.70.360.040.040.040.040.040.01Tanzania
Equatorial Guinea1.35813061094122006.01:16.70.150.010.010.010.010.010.24Equatorial Guinea
Congo (Brazzaville)5.2446834512221010.51:9.50.310.030.040.040.040.050.11Congo (Brazzaville)
Liberia4.4753451303018516.21:6.20.540.090.10.10.110.110.18Liberia
Benin11.73326110731512.01:50.30.580.010.010.010.010.020.01Benin
Sudan42.36160813708359201417.81:5.60.330.060.070.070.080.090.23Sudan
Zambia17.381108917079120.81:129.90.840.010.010.010.010.010.01Zambia
Gabon2.17331012247218332.51:39.70.270.010.010.010.010.010.26Gabon
Somalia15.893228917768243119.01:5.30.190.040.040.040.040.050.14Somalia
Togo7.538487234132405.41:18.50.490.030.030.030.030.030.05Togo
Central African Republic5.4961570152853713.51:7.40.020.00.00.00.010.010.02Central African Republic
Niger22.31597038658677.51:13.30.890.070.070.070.070.070.08Niger
Guinea12.218411712372328570.81:123.50.690.010.010.010.010.010.05Guinea
Chad15.693836956967210.31:9.70.80.080.090.090.10.10.12Chad
Djibouti1.078416923282618151.41:69.90.440.010.010.010.010.010.65Djibouti
Eswatini1.0933229532241.31:74.60.70.010.010.010.010.010.07Eswatini
Madagascar25.68102680682123.81:26.50.210.010.010.010.010.020.01Madagascar
Zimbabwe15.1627924243312.11:8.30.120.010.020.020.030.070.01Zimbabwe
Mozambique30.0740928121261.61:62.90.310.00.010.010.010.010.0Mozambique
Uganda40.35935110820.0na0.140.00.00.00.00.00.0Uganda
Libya6.752561995529.61:10.40.20.020.030.030.050.070.02Libya
Guinea-Bissau1.8613681203121537.81:12.80.110.010.010.010.010.010.17Guinea-Bissau
Mali18.4315235889084510.71:9.40.550.060.070.070.080.090.13Mali
Comoros0.85141722673.01:33.40.480.010.020.020.020.020.06Comoros
Malawi18.144093504557.31:13.80.130.010.010.010.020.050.01Malawi
Sao Tome and Principe0.2499419126817.61:5.70.140.020.020.020.030.051.62Sao Tome and Principe
South Sudan12.92994978106166.71.7:10.010.010.010.010.010.020.02South Sudan
Sierra Leone7.08946298486008.01:12.50.630.050.050.060.060.070.18Sierra Leone
UNR African Group1280.39181948957925002811546.21:16.20.450.030.030.030.040.040.11UNR African Group

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt