COVID-19 - Ukraine - 20-04-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Ukraine is included in the following groups: Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Ukraine has a landborder to: Belarus - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 1892 4.5 224 13.43% 12.36%
Active cases 1790 4.3 209 13.22% 9.52%
Deaths 57 0.1 5 9.62% 14.74%
Recovered 450.11028.57%10.13%
Deaths per infected 3.01%
Recovered per infected2.38%
Active per infected 94.61%
Deaths per recovered 126.67%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.04%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 5d 12h 5d 22h
Time to reach a million cases 49d 18h53d 19h
Time to saturate the population79d 9h 85d 21h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 34
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 52 93 45
Active 48 89 49
Deaths 47 61 27
Recovered 47 125 84
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt