COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-08-02

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 127824 33.2 504 0.4% 1.02%
Active cases 38589 10.0 141 0.37% -0.01%
Deaths 1908 0.5 7 0.37% 0.56%
Recovered 8732722.73560.41%1.4%
Deaths per infected 1.49%
Recovered per infected68.32%
Active per infected 30.19%
Deaths per recovered 2.18%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.13%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 175d 10h 68d 5h
Time to reach a million cases >1yr202d 13h
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 128 86
Active na 119 125
Deaths na 130 86
Recovered na 126 59
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Burkina Faso20.871143145539450.694.980.00.19101d 5h5.50.70.34.55.61:17.80.83
Senegal16.20910344329720968381.081.531.090.6964d 15h63d 19h63.820.31.342.23.11:32.70.66
Nigeria206.144384122645888203080.960.350.341.3872d 16h202d 1h21.311.00.49.94.41:22.90.46
Ghana30.281370143467182333651.49-0.811.631.7646d 18h42d 18h122.211.40.6110.20.61:181.80.9
Cote d'Ivoire23.74161824279102118010.59-3.40.812.22117d 17h86d 8h68.218.00.449.70.91:116.30.73
Liberia4.4751207457776730.51-0.790.830.83137d 6h84d 6h27.010.21.715.011.41:8.70.56
Benin11.73318057333610360.40.970.570.0175d 14h121d 15h15.46.20.38.83.51:28.80.57
Togo7.538961282196601.431.971.111.1348d 18h62d 17h12.73.70.38.82.91:34.70.69
Niger22.3151147466910320.261.640.00.02262d 15h5.10.20.34.66.71:14.90.9
Guinea12.21873177914664800.530.980.00.46130d 20h59.96.50.453.00.71:140.80.89
Gambia2.3484984219689.4411.72.50.617d 16h28d 1h21.217.90.42.913.21:7.60.14
Guinea-Bissau1.8619811151278030.280.460.770.0251d 3h90d 10h106.561.91.543.23.41:29.80.41
Mali18.43254147412419430.17-0.120.00.19>1yr13.82.60.710.56.41:15.70.76
Sierra Leone7.0818434016713750.630.520.30.39110d 3h229d 2h26.05.70.919.44.91:20.50.75
Western Africa385.24127824385891908873271.02-0.010.561.468d 5h124d 16h33.210.00.522.72.21:45.90.68

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Burkina Faso20.871143145539455.61:17.80.830.050.050.050.050.050.07Burkina Faso
Senegal16.20910344329720968383.11:32.70.660.020.020.020.020.020.35Senegal
Nigeria206.144384122645888203084.41:22.90.460.020.020.020.020.020.12Nigeria
Ghana30.281370143467182333650.61:181.80.90.00.010.010.010.010.16Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire23.74161824279102118010.91:116.30.730.010.010.010.010.010.12Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia4.47512074577767311.41:8.70.560.060.070.070.070.070.47Liberia
Benin11.73318057333610363.51:28.80.570.020.020.020.020.020.08Benin
Togo7.538961282196602.91:34.70.690.020.020.020.020.020.07Togo
Niger22.3151147466910326.71:14.90.90.060.060.060.060.060.08Niger
Guinea12.21873177914664800.71:140.80.890.010.010.010.010.010.1Guinea
Gambia2.34849842196813.21:7.60.140.020.030.030.040.080.1Gambia
Guinea-Bissau1.8619811151278033.41:29.80.410.010.010.010.010.010.39Guinea-Bissau
Mali18.43254147412419436.41:15.70.760.050.050.050.050.050.18Mali
Sierra Leone7.0818434016713754.91:20.50.750.040.040.040.040.040.26Sierra Leone
Western Africa385.24127824385891908873272.21:45.90.680.010.020.020.020.020.13Western Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt