COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 173878 45.1 367 0.21% 0.19%
Active cases 14464 3.8 -66 -0.45% -1.14%
Deaths 2581 0.7 0 0.0% 0.09%
Recovered 15683340.74330.28%0.27%
Deaths per infected 1.48%
Recovered per infected90.2%
Active per infected 8.32%
Deaths per recovered 1.65%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.18%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 328d 1h >1yr
Time to reach a million cases stablestable
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 141 143
Active na 142 144
Deaths na 145 121
Recovered na 132 111
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Burkina Faso20.8722546786015160.79-0.40.341.288d 0h204d 19h10.83.20.37.34.01:25.30.67
Senegal16.209152131764313131360.16-1.760.060.41>1yrstable93.910.91.981.02.41:42.00.86
Nigeria206.145999272651113516140.22-0.770.00.31319d 14h29.13.50.525.02.21:46.30.86
Ghana30.28146987303306463780.07-3.610.20.09stable350d 9h155.21.01.0153.20.71:151.50.99
Cote d'Ivoire23.7420036220120196960.15-5.150.00.18>1yr84.40.90.583.00.61:163.90.98
Liberia4.4751360338212450.182.850.00.15>1yr30.40.71.827.86.61:15.20.92
Benin11.73324113974119730.463.150.00.0151d 14h20.53.40.316.82.11:48.10.82
Togo7.53819214394914330.710.860.420.4897d 14h166d 16h25.55.80.719.03.41:29.20.75
Niger22.315120196911230.02-6.530.00.13stable5.40.00.35.06.11:16.30.94
Guinea12.2181095462168102650.370.450.60.26187d 23h115d 13h89.75.10.684.00.71:151.50.94
Gambia2.3483621101511724890.15-3.010.351.89>1yr199d 15h154.243.25.0106.04.71:21.30.69
Guinea-Bissau1.8623856174017280.19-4.060.512.31356d 6h135d 12h128.233.22.292.92.31:43.30.72
Mali18.43324860313125140.40.830.00.22174d 0h17.63.30.713.65.21:19.20.77
Sierra Leone7.0822955007217230.230.360.00.18304d 0h32.47.11.024.34.21:23.90.75
Western Africa385.241738781446425811568330.19-1.140.090.27>1yrstable45.13.80.740.71.61:60.60.9

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Burkina Faso20.8722546786015164.01:25.30.670.030.030.030.030.030.08Burkina Faso
Senegal16.209152131764313131362.41:42.00.860.020.020.020.020.020.52Senegal
Nigeria206.145999272651113516142.21:46.30.860.020.020.020.020.020.15Nigeria
Ghana30.28146987303306463780.71:151.50.990.010.010.010.010.010.27Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire23.7420036220120196960.61:163.90.980.010.010.010.010.010.14Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia4.4751360338212456.61:15.20.920.060.060.060.060.060.5Liberia
Benin11.73324113974119732.11:48.10.820.020.020.020.020.020.09Benin
Togo7.53819214394914333.41:29.20.750.030.030.030.030.030.18Togo
Niger22.315120196911236.11:16.30.940.060.060.060.060.060.08Niger
Guinea12.2181095462168102650.71:151.50.940.010.010.010.010.010.15Guinea
Gambia2.3483621101511724894.71:21.30.690.030.030.030.030.031.35Gambia
Guinea-Bissau1.8623856174017282.31:43.30.720.020.020.020.020.020.58Guinea-Bissau
Mali18.43324860313125145.21:19.20.770.040.040.040.040.040.19Mali
Sierra Leone7.0822955007217234.21:23.90.750.030.030.030.030.030.27Sierra Leone
Western Africa385.241738781446425811568331.61:60.60.90.010.010.020.020.020.18Western Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt