COVID-19 - Ethiopia - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Ethiopia is included in the following groups: Female Heads of State - Most Populous - Eastern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region
Ethiopia has a landborder to: Djibouti - Eritrea - Kenya - Somalia - South Sudan - Sudan

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 82662 83.8 865 1.06% 0.96%
Active cases 44289 44.9 188 0.43% -0.2%
Deaths 1271 1.3 9 0.71% 0.65%
Recovered 3710237.66681.83%1.97%
Deaths per infected 1.54%
Recovered per infected44.88%
Active per infected 53.58%
Deaths per recovered 3.43%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 65d 21h 72d 18h
Time to reach a million cases 236d 23h261d 19h
Time to saturate the population>1yr stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 14
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 50 128 72
Active 25 92 124
Deaths 49 127 54
Recovered 59 134 21
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Neighbours of Ethiopia

Djibouti - Eritrea - Kenya - Somalia - South Sudan - Sudan

Ethiopia in its groups

Female Heads of State - Most Populous - Eastern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt