COVID-19 - Sudan - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Sudan is included in the following groups: Female Heads of State - Northern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region
Sudan has a landborder to: Central African Republic - Chad - Egypt - Eritrea - Ethiopia - Libya - South Sudan

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 13670 32.3 0 0.0% 0.02%
Active cases 6070 14.3 0 0.0% 0.06%
Deaths 836 2.0 0 0.0% 0.0%
Recovered 676416.000.0%0.0%
Deaths per infected 6.12%
Recovered per infected49.48%
Active per infected 44.4%
Deaths per recovered 12.36%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.53%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases stable
Time to reach a million cases stable
Time to saturate the population stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 33
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 97 150 171
Active 69 113 111
Deaths 64 115 148
Recovered 101 154 170
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Sudan

Central African Republic - Chad - Egypt - Eritrea - Ethiopia - Libya - South Sudan

Sudan in its groups

Female Heads of State - Northern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt