COVID-19 - Guatemala - 20-08-04

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Guatemala is included in the following groups: Central America - America - UNR Latin American and Caribbean Group - WHO Region of the Americas
Guatemala has a landborder to: Belize - El Salvador - Honduras - Mexico

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 52365 315.4 823 1.6% 1.42%
Active cases 10043 60.5 -140 -1.37% -2.08%
Deaths 2037 12.3 24 1.19% 1.53%
Recovered 40285242.69392.39%2.03%
Deaths per infected 3.89%
Recovered per infected76.93%
Active per infected 19.18%
Deaths per recovered 5.06%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
3.32%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 43d 18h 49d 2h
Time to reach a million cases 186d 4h208d 22h
Time to saturate the population363d 13h >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 69
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 44 60 64
Active 45 55 152
Deaths 33 34 40
Recovered 37 48 36
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Guatemala

Belize - El Salvador - Honduras - Mexico

Guatemala in its groups

Central America - America - UNR Latin American and Caribbean Group - WHO Region of the Americas

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt