COVID-19 - Moldova - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Moldova is included in the following groups: Female Heads of State - Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Moldova has a landborder to: Romania - Ukraine

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 60833 2268.4 918 1.53% 1.46%
Active cases 15902 593.0 419 2.71% 1.68%
Deaths 1442 53.8 18 1.26% 0.84%
Recovered 434891621.74811.12%0.98%
Deaths per infected 2.37%
Recovered per infected71.49%
Active per infected 26.14%
Deaths per recovered 3.32%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
14.53%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 45d 14h 47d 18h
Time to reach a million cases 184d 2h192d 22h
Time to saturate the population248d 23h 260d 22h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 140
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 55 12 44
Active 48 12 66
Deaths 48 17 40
Recovered 56 13 55
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Moldova

Romania - Ukraine

Moldova in its groups

Female Heads of State - Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt