COVID-19 - Montenegro - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Montenegro is included in the following groups: Southern Europe - UNR Eastern European Group
Montenegro has a landborder to: Albania - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Kosovo - Serbia

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 33836 5436.4 520 1.56% 1.73%
Active cases 10996 1766.7 -130 -1.17% -0.01%
Deaths 474 76.2 5 1.07% 1.33%
Recovered 223663593.56452.97%2.2%
Deaths per infected 1.4%
Recovered per infected66.1%
Active per infected 32.5%
Deaths per recovered 2.12%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
20.58%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 44d 18h 40d 12h
Time to reach a million cases 218d 15h197d 22h
Time to saturate the population188d 0h 170d 4h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population 164
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 93 4 42
Active 75 9 129
Deaths 90 19 35
Recovered 89 7 26
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Montenegro

Albania - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Kosovo - Serbia

Montenegro in its groups

Southern Europe - UNR Eastern European Group

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt