COVID-19 - Albania - 20-05-30

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Albania is included in the following groups: Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Albania has a landborder to: Greece - Kosovo - North Macedonia - Montenegro

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	1122	39.2	23	2.09%	2.25%
Active cases	232	8.1	17	7.91%	4.06%
Deaths	33	1.2	0	0.0%	0.62%
Recovered	857	29.9	6	0.71%	1.38%

Deaths per infected	2.94%
Recovered per infected	76.38%
Active per infected	20.68%
Deaths per recovered	3.85%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.31%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	33d 11h	31d 4h
Time to reach a million cases	327d 22h	305d 14h
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	352d 22h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	136
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	107	77	80
Active	115	94	41
Deaths	98	73	88
Recovered	92	64	94
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Albania

Greece - Kosovo - North Macedonia - Montenegro

Albania in its groups

Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt