COVID-19 - Albania - 20-08-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Albania is included in the following groups: Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Albania has a landborder to: Greece - Kosovo - North Macedonia - Montenegro

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 6411 224.0 136 2.17% 2.2%
Active cases 2870 100.3 56 1.99% 2.05%
Deaths 199 7.0 6 3.11% 1.87%
Recovered 3342116.8742.26%1.52%
Deaths per infected 3.1%
Recovered per infected52.13%
Active per infected 44.77%
Deaths per recovered 5.95%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
1.88%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 32d 7h 31d 20h
Time to reach a million cases 235d 12h232d 0h
Time to saturate the population284d 13h 280d 8h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 136
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 97 71 34
Active 78 44 51
Deaths 83 52 32
Recovered 97 75 59
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Albania

Greece - Kosovo - North Macedonia - Montenegro

Albania in its groups

Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt