COVID-19 - Northern Africa - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 740617 302.9 8304 1.13% 1.03%
Active cases 133529 54.6 1416 1.07% -0.36%
Deaths 20316 8.3 188 0.93% 0.73%
Recovered 586772240.067001.16%1.09%
Deaths per infected 2.74%
Recovered per infected79.23%
Active per infected 18.03%
Deaths per recovered 3.46%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
2.25%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 61d 11h 67d 11h
Time to reach a million cases 26d 15h29d 5h
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 104 72
Active na 91 137
Deaths na 87 55
Recovered na 95 50
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Africa

Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Egypt100.15114832583466081023900.324.080.150.08218d 17h>1yr114.75.86.6102.26.51:15.50.89
Algeria43.080168258502372519461.381.330.71.0250d 14h100d 1h186.460.15.5120.84.61:21.90.65
Morocco35.8453452764555156892940361.22-1.631.121.3957d 1h62d 10h963.2127.115.9820.31.91:51.80.85
Tunisia11.72293770222003106684641.12-1.421.471.6262d 11h47d 12h799.9189.426.5584.14.51:22.00.73
Sudan42.361168645685121599641.02.140.30.4669d 22h231d 22h39.813.42.923.512.21:8.20.59
Mauritania4.077842458717276650.724.880.240.1696d 17h293d 4h206.614.44.2188.02.21:44.60.91
Libya6.7581273278211153522990.87-0.10.921.0779d 21h75d 14h1204.0412.217.1774.82.21:45.50.64
Northern Africa244.48740617133529203165867721.03-0.360.731.0967d 11h95d 17h302.954.68.3240.03.51:28.90.79

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Egypt100.15114832583466081023906.51:15.50.890.060.060.060.060.061.78Egypt
Algeria43.080168258502372519464.61:21.90.650.030.030.030.030.041.49Algeria
Morocco35.8453452764555156892940361.91:51.80.850.020.020.020.020.024.29Morocco
Tunisia11.72293770222003106684644.51:22.00.730.030.030.040.040.047.16Tunisia
Sudan42.3611686456851215996412.21:8.20.590.070.080.080.080.080.78Sudan
Mauritania4.077842458717276652.21:44.60.910.020.020.020.020.021.14Mauritania
Libya6.7581273278211153522992.21:45.50.640.010.010.020.020.024.62Libya
Northern Africa244.48740617133529203165867723.51:28.90.790.030.030.030.030.032.25Northern Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt