COVID-19 - Northern Africa - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 53806 22.0 1523 2.91% 3.61%
Active cases 28211 11.5 252 0.9% 2.27%
Deaths 2370 1.0 53 2.29% 2.73%
Recovered 232259.512185.53%4.08%
Deaths per infected 4.4%
Recovered per infected43.16%
Active per infected 52.43%
Deaths per recovered 10.2%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.26%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 24d 3h 19d 13h
Time to reach a million cases 101d 18h82d 11h
Time to saturate the population293d 7h 237d 15h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 108 46
Active na 80 60
Deaths na 77 38
Recovered na 109 25
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Northern Africa

Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Egypt100.152861520177108873505.334.643.684.4113d 8h19d 4h28.620.11.17.314.81:6.80.26
Algeria43.09733284267362181.28-1.210.892.2854d 13h77d 20h22.66.61.614.510.81:9.20.64
Morocco35.845792285020668660.53-10.280.394.05130d 4h176d 10h22.12.40.619.23.01:33.30.87
Tunisia11.722108773499650.3-0.90.00.4233d 12h9.30.60.48.25.11:19.70.89
Sudan42.3615499347431417114.0-0.515.7616.317d 15h12d 8h13.08.20.74.018.41:5.40.31
Mauritania4.077745654345712.08.919.9626.466d 2h7d 7h18.316.00.81.459.61:1.70.08
Libya6.7519613955210.7812.180.05.196d 18h2.92.10.10.89.61:10.40.27
Northern Africa244.4853806282112370232253.612.272.734.0819d 13h25d 17h22.011.51.09.510.21:9.80.43

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Egypt100.1528615201771088735014.81:6.80.260.040.050.050.060.070.29Egypt
Algeria43.097332842673621810.81:9.20.640.070.070.070.080.090.42Algeria
Morocco35.845792285020668663.01:33.30.870.030.030.030.030.030.16Morocco
Tunisia11.722108773499655.11:19.70.890.050.050.050.050.050.11Tunisia
Sudan42.36154993474314171118.41:5.40.310.060.070.070.080.10.2Sudan
Mauritania4.077745654345759.61:1.70.080.050.070.10.130.20.23Mauritania
Libya6.751961395529.61:10.40.270.030.040.050.070.070.02Libya
Northern Africa244.48538062821123702322510.21:9.80.430.040.050.050.060.070.26Northern Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt