COVID-19 - Northern Africa - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Northern Africa is a Group with the following members:
Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 183031 74.9 2291 1.27% 1.06%
Active cases 69204 28.3 -495 -0.71% -0.92%
Deaths 7752 3.2 55 0.71% 0.61%
Recovered 10607543.427312.64%2.11%
Deaths per infected 4.24%
Recovered per infected57.95%
Active per infected 37.81%
Deaths per recovered 7.31%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 55d 0h 65d 10h
Time to reach a million cases 134d 19h160d 7h
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 103 79
Active na 83 122
Deaths na 78 77
Recovered na 101 40
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Northern Africa

Algeria - Egypt - Libya - Mauritania - Morocco - Sudan - Tunisia - Western Sahara

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Egypt100.1595006411574951488980.15-2.420.392.79>1yr176d 3h94.941.14.948.810.11:9.90.51
Algeria43.03362691151273232381.670.570.611.6841d 19h113d 3h78.
Morocco35.845296448642449205533.463.933.472.1820d 9h20d 7h82.724.11.357.32.21:45.90.69
Tunisia11.72216423505112411. 7h14.03.00.410.64.11:24.30.76
Sudan42.36111780482376361940.07- 6h27.811.41.814.612.31:8.10.53
Mauritania4.077644499615752910.39- 15h158.024.43.9129.83.01:33.70.82
Libya6.75487941201076525.764.574.430.6712d 9h15d 23h72.361.01.69.716.41:6.10.13
Northern Africa244.481830316920477521060751.06-0.920.612.1165d 10h113d 3h74.928.

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Northern Africa244.481830316920477521060757.31:13.70.580. Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt