COVID-19 - South Africa - 20-08-02

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

South Africa is included in the following groups: G20 - Southern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region
South Africa has a landborder to: Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Mozambique - Namibia - Zimbabwe

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	511485	870.2	8195	1.63%	2.16%
Active cases	155892	265.2	3216	2.11%	-1.52%
Deaths	8366	14.2	213	2.61%	2.37%
Recovered	347227	590.8	4766	1.39%	3.65%

Deaths per infected	1.64%
Recovered per infected	67.89%
Active per infected	30.48%
Deaths per recovered	2.41%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	3.85%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	42d 21h	32d 8h
Time to reach a million cases	41d 12h	31d 7h
Time to saturate the population	293d 17h	221d 12h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	25
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	5	18	45
Active	6	20	150
Deaths	17	30	28
Recovered	5	19	18
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of South Africa

Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Mozambique - Namibia - Zimbabwe

South Africa in its groups

G20 - Southern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt