COVID-19 - South Africa - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

South Africa is included in the following groups: G20 - Southern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region
South Africa has a landborder to: Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Mozambique - Namibia - Zimbabwe

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	781941	1330.4	3370	0.43%	0.37%
Active cases	37687	64.1	-3151	-7.72%	2.35%
Deaths	21378	36.4	89	0.42%	0.37%
Recovered	722876	1229.9	6432	0.9%	0.18%

Deaths per infected	2.73%
Recovered per infected	92.45%
Active per infected	4.82%
Deaths per recovered	2.96%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	9.83%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	160d 11h	188d 6h
Time to reach a million cases	56d 22h	66d 19h
Time to saturate the population	stable	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	192	Population	25
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	16	62	132
Active	44	87	42
Deaths	14	40	85
Recovered	9	41	126
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of South Africa

Botswana - Eswatini - Lesotho - Mozambique - Namibia - Zimbabwe

South Africa in its groups

G20 - Southern Africa - Africa - UNR African Group - WHO African Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt