G20 is a Group with the following members:
Argentina - Australia - Brazil - Canada - China - France - Germany - India - Indonesia - Italy - Japan - Korea, South - Mexico - Russia - Saudi Arabia - South Africa - Turkey - US - United Kingdom
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Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though. | ||
Last days rate | Last average rate | |
---|---|---|
Time to double cases | 64d 11h | 73d 4h |
Time to reach a million cases | ||
Time to saturate the population | >1yr | >1yr |
A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview. | |||
Total: | 192 | Population | na |
---|---|---|---|
Total cases | Cases per 100.000 | Average grow rate (5 days) | |
Infected | na | 79 | 78 |
Active | na | 52 | 81 |
Deaths | na | 59 | 68 |
Recovered | na | 72 | 64 |
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both! |
Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
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Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Deaths | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | |
absolute values | Percentage growthrate 5d | Time to double | Cases per 100.000 | % / ratio | ||||||||||||||
China | 1401.856 | 92586 | 907 | 4742 | 86937 | 0.1 | 7.85 | 0.0 | 0.02 | >1yr | 6.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 1:18.3 | 0.94 | |
Italy | 60.243 | 1538217 | 787893 | 53677 | 696647 | 1.77 | -0.25 | 1.19 | 3.65 | 39d 10h | 58d 16h | 2553.3 | 1307.8 | 89.1 | 1156.4 | 7.7 | 1:13.0 | 0.45 |
Germany | 83.149 | 1038649 | 317425 | 16011 | 705213 | 2.18 | 0.67 | 2.01 | 2.31 | 32d 1h | 34d 17h | 1249.1 | 381.8 | 19.3 | 848.1 | 2.3 | 1:44.1 | 0.68 |
US | 329.488 | 13088821 | 7876517 | 264858 | 4947446 | 1.34 | 0.75 | 0.51 | 1.48 | 52d 2h | 136d 17h | 3972.5 | 2390.5 | 80.4 | 1501.6 | 5.3 | 1:18.7 | 0.38 |
France | 67.069 | 2248209 | 2030717 | 51999 | 165493 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.9 | 0.82 | 134d 20h | 77d 5h | 3352.1 | 3027.8 | 77.5 | 246.8 | 31.4 | 1:3.2 | 0.07 |
Korea, South | 51.781 | 33375 | 5504 | 522 | 27349 | 1.49 | 5.96 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 47d 0h | 253d 13h | 64.5 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 52.8 | 1.9 | 1:52.4 | 0.82 |
United Kingdom | 66.436 | 1593250 | 1532140 | 57648 | 3462 | 1.0 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 69d 12h | 96d 17h | 2398.2 | 2306.2 | 86.8 | 5.2 | 1665.2 | 16.7:1 | 0.0 |
Japan | 126.01 | 142778 | 23041 | 2028 | 117709 | 1.42 | 1.13 | 0.54 | 1.06 | 49d 0h | 128d 15h | 113.3 | 18.3 | 1.6 | 93.4 | 1.7 | 1:58.1 | 0.82 |
Canada | 37.965 | 362604 | 59467 | 11916 | 291221 | 1.66 | 2.12 | 0.54 | 1.2 | 42d 1h | 127d 18h | 955.1 | 156.6 | 31.4 | 767.1 | 4.1 | 1:24.4 | 0.8 |
Australia | 25.653 | 27886 | 1394 | 907 | 25585 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.0 | 0.03 | stable | 108.7 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 99.7 | 3.5 | 1:28.2 | 0.92 | |
Brazil | 211.284 | 6238350 | 484940 | 171974 | 5581436 | 0.54 | 1.41 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 127d 17h | 259d 2h | 2952.6 | 229.5 | 81.4 | 2641.7 | 3.1 | 1:32.5 | 0.89 |
Turkey | 83.155 | 548244 | 142437 | 13191 | 392616 | 4.23 | 12.42 | 1.04 | 0.74 | 16d 17h | 66d 22h | 659.3 | 171.3 | 15.9 | 472.1 | 3.4 | 1:29.8 | 0.72 |
Indonesia | 266.912 | 522581 | 68604 | 16521 | 437456 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 70d 22h | 119d 6h | 195.8 | 25.7 | 6.2 | 163.9 | 3.8 | 1:26.5 | 0.84 |
Saudi Arabia | 34.218 | 356691 | 5212 | 5857 | 345622 | 0.08 | -2.66 | 0.21 | 0.11 | stable | 335d 12h | 1042.4 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 1010.1 | 1.7 | 1:59.2 | 0.97 |
Russia | 146.745 | 2196691 | 460898 | 38175 | 1697618 | 1.18 | 0.32 | 1.01 | 1.1 | 59d 5h | 68d 18h | 1496.9 | 314.1 | 26.0 | 1156.8 | 2.2 | 1:44.4 | 0.77 |
India | 1360.054 | 9351109 | 454940 | 136200 | 8759969 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 151d 16h | 236d 2h | 687.6 | 33.5 | 10.0 | 644.1 | 1.6 | 1:64.5 | 0.94 |
South Africa | 58.775 | 781941 | 37687 | 21378 | 722876 | 0.37 | 2.35 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 188d 6h | 189d 7h | 1330.4 | 64.1 | 36.4 | 1229.9 | 3.0 | 1:33.8 | 0.92 |
Argentina | 44.939 | 1407277 | 133804 | 38216 | 1235257 | 0.53 | -0.44 | 0.5 | 0.52 | 130d 9h | 138d 4h | 3131.5 | 297.7 | 85.0 | 2748.8 | 3.1 | 1:32.4 | 0.88 |
Mexico | 126.578 | 1078594 | 170771 | 104242 | 803581 | 0.7 | 1.18 | 0.5 | 0.62 | 99d 23h | 138d 21h | 852.1 | 134.9 | 82.4 | 634.9 | 13.0 | 1:7.7 | 0.74 |
G20 | 4582.31 | 42647853 | 14594298 | 1010062 | 27043493 | 0.95 | 0.7 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 73d 4h | 127d 11h | 930.7 | 318.5 | 22.0 | 590.2 | 3.7 | 1:26.8 | 0.63 |
Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
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Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | Deaths per infected ... days ago | Possible Total % | Country | |||||
absolute values | % / ratio | 0d | 5d | 7d | 10d | 14d | |||||||||
China | 1401.856 | 92586 | 907 | 4742 | 86937 | 5.5 | 1:18.3 | 0.94 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 | China |
Italy | 60.243 | 1538217 | 787893 | 53677 | 696647 | 7.7 | 1:13.0 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 24.08 | Italy |
Germany | 83.149 | 1038649 | 317425 | 16011 | 705213 | 2.3 | 1:44.1 | 0.68 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 5.2 | Germany |
US | 329.488 | 13088821 | 7876517 | 264858 | 4947446 | 5.3 | 1:18.7 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 21.73 | US |
France | 67.069 | 2248209 | 2030717 | 51999 | 165493 | 31.4 | 1:3.2 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 20.95 | France |
Korea, South | 51.781 | 33375 | 5504 | 522 | 27349 | 1.9 | 1:52.4 | 0.82 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.27 | Korea, South |
United Kingdom | 66.436 | 1593250 | 1532140 | 57648 | 3462 | 1665.2 | 16.7:1 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 23.45 | United Kingdom |
Japan | 126.01 | 142778 | 23041 | 2028 | 117709 | 1.7 | 1:58.1 | 0.82 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.43 | Japan |
Canada | 37.965 | 362604 | 59467 | 11916 | 291221 | 4.1 | 1:24.4 | 0.8 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 8.48 | Canada |
Australia | 25.653 | 27886 | 1394 | 907 | 25585 | 3.5 | 1:28.2 | 0.92 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.96 | Australia |
Brazil | 211.284 | 6238350 | 484940 | 171974 | 5581436 | 3.1 | 1:32.5 | 0.89 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 22.0 | Brazil |
Turkey | 83.155 | 548244 | 142437 | 13191 | 392616 | 3.4 | 1:29.8 | 0.72 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 4.29 | Turkey |
Indonesia | 266.912 | 522581 | 68604 | 16521 | 437456 | 3.8 | 1:26.5 | 0.84 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1.67 | Indonesia |
Saudi Arabia | 34.218 | 356691 | 5212 | 5857 | 345622 | 1.7 | 1:59.2 | 0.97 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 4.63 | Saudi Arabia |
Russia | 146.745 | 2196691 | 460898 | 38175 | 1697618 | 2.2 | 1:44.4 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 7.03 | Russia |
India | 1360.054 | 9351109 | 454940 | 136200 | 8759969 | 1.6 | 1:64.5 | 0.94 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 2.71 | India |
South Africa | 58.775 | 781941 | 37687 | 21378 | 722876 | 3.0 | 1:33.8 | 0.92 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 9.83 | South Africa |
Argentina | 44.939 | 1407277 | 133804 | 38216 | 1235257 | 3.1 | 1:32.4 | 0.88 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 22.98 | Argentina |
Mexico | 126.578 | 1078594 | 170771 | 104242 | 803581 | 13.0 | 1:7.7 | 0.74 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 22.26 | Mexico |
G20 | 4582.31 | 42647853 | 14594298 | 1010062 | 27043493 | 3.7 | 1:26.8 | 0.63 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 5.96 | G20 |
A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected
county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first
reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to
the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally
other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are
more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number.
Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get
other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results. Links (German): Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt |