COVID-19 - Japan - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Japan is included in the following groups: G7 - G20 - Flatliners - Most Populous - Eastern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO Western Pacific Region

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 88267 70.0 588 0.67% 0.58%
Active cases 6504 5.2 116 1.82% 0.29%
Deaths 1623 1.3 6 0.37% 0.24%
Recovered 8014063.64660.58%0.46%
Deaths per infected 1.84%
Recovered per infected90.79%
Active per infected 7.37%
Deaths per recovered 2.03%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.35%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 103d 16h 119d 14h
Time to reach a million cases 363d 4h>1yr
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 11
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 47 133 95
Active 67 137 101
Deaths 46 128 100
Recovered 40 120 86
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Japan in its groups

G7 - G20 - Flatliners - Most Populous - Eastern Asia - Asia - UNR Asia and the Pacific Group - WHO Western Pacific Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt