COVID-19 - Flatliners - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Flatliners is a Group with the following members:
China - Japan - Korea, South - Kuwait - Singapore - Taiwan

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 372028 23.1 1331 0.36% 0.33%
Active cases 15961 1.0 48 0.3% -0.24%
Deaths 7475 0.5 15 0.2% 0.12%
Recovered 34859221.712680.37%0.29%
Deaths per infected 2.01%
Recovered per infected93.7%
Active per infected 4.29%
Deaths per recovered 2.14%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.13%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 193d 9h 208d 10h
Time to reach a million cases 275d 21h297d 7h
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 159 121
Active na 158 125
Deaths na 153 115
Recovered na 150 110
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Flatliners

China - Japan - Korea, South - Kuwait - Singapore - Taiwan

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
China1401.856907513714739856410.030.970.00.02stable6.50.00.36.15.51:18.10.94
Korea, South51.781245481494430226240.32-4.40.280.62219d 19h245d 3h47.42.90.843.71.91:52.60.92
Japan126.018826765041623801400.580.290.240.46119d 14h293d 2h70.05.21.363.62.01:49.30.91
Singapore5.7045785915727576750.02-5.750.00.03stable1014.42.80.51011.20.11:2000.01.0
Kuwait4.4211007674036491020240.560.340.570.46123d 7h121d 17h2490.4167.514.72308.20.61:156.20.93
Taiwan23.6045273274880.383.00.00.12180d 20h2.20.10.02.11.41:69.90.93
Flatliners1608.953720281596174753485920.33-0.240.120.29208d 10h>1yr23.11.00.521.72.11:46.70.94

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
China1401.856907513714739856415.51:18.10.940.050.050.050.050.050.09China
Korea, South51.781245481494430226241.91:52.60.920.020.020.020.020.020.22Korea, South
Japan126.018826765041623801402.01:49.30.910.020.020.020.020.020.35Japan
Singapore5.7045785915727576750.11:2000.01.00.00.00.00.00.00.13Singapore
Kuwait4.4211007674036491020240.61:156.20.930.010.010.010.010.013.97Kuwait
Taiwan23.6045273274881.41:69.90.930.010.010.010.010.010.01Taiwan
Flatliners1608.953720281596174753485922.11:46.70.940.020.020.020.020.020.13Flatliners

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt