COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	133591	34.7	1464	1.11%	0.97%
Active cases	26955	7.0	-240	-0.88%	-5.98%
Deaths	1999	0.5	9	0.45%	0.92%
Recovered	104637	27.2	1695	1.65%	3.53%

Deaths per infected	1.5%
Recovered per infected	78.33%
Active per infected	20.18%
Deaths per recovered	1.91%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.14%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	62d 21h	72d 0h
Time to reach a million cases	182d 16h	209d 3h
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	131	81
Active	na	130	165
Deaths	na	134	62
Recovered	na	119	19
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Burkina Faso	20.87	1158	143	54	961	0.26	-0.33	0.38	0.26	265d 12h	184d 0h	5.5	0.7	0.3	4.6	5.6	1:17.8	0.83
Senegal	16.209	10715	3391	223	7101	0.83	0.48	0.85	0.48	84d 7h	81d 22h	66.1	20.9	1.4	43.8	3.1	1:31.8	0.66
Nigeria	206.14	45244	11884	930	32430	0.77	-9.44	0.98	11.6	90d 2h	71d 2h	21.9	5.8	0.5	15.7	2.9	1:34.8	0.72
Ghana	30.281	39642	3059	199	36384	1.39	-0.89	1.83	1.3	50d 5h	38d 6h	130.9	10.1	0.7	120.2	0.6	1:181.8	0.92
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	16447	3860	103	12484	0.42	-0.95	0.2	0.74	166d 20h	353d 20h	69.3	16.3	0.4	52.6	0.8	1:120.5	0.76
Liberia	4.475	1224	441	78	705	0.58	0.16	0.79	0.77	119d 5h	87d 17h	27.3	9.9	1.7	15.8	11.1	1:9.0	0.58
Benin	11.733	1936	298	38	1600	1.44	-9.99	1.11	10.89	48d 13h	62d 17h	16.5	2.5	0.3	13.6	2.4	1:42.0	0.83
Togo	7.538	1012	293	22	697	1.1	-0.1	2.11	1.3	63d 3h	33d 6h	13.4	3.9	0.3	9.2	3.2	1:31.6	0.69
Niger	22.315	1153	27	69	1057	0.3	-4.89	0.0	0.56	232d 18h		5.2	0.1	0.3	4.7	6.5	1:15.3	0.92
Guinea	12.218	7664	858	49	6757	0.96	2.18	1.29	0.53	72d 18h	54d 5h	62.7	7.0	0.4	55.3	0.7	1:137.0	0.88
Gambia	2.348	935	783	16	136	14.17	10.57	13.97	12.35	5d 5h	5d 7h	39.8	33.4	0.7	5.8	11.8	1:8.5	0.15
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	2032	1061	27	944	0.51	-1.56	0.0	3.51	134d 23h		109.2	57.0	1.5	50.8	2.9	1:35.0	0.46
Mali	18.43	2552	474	124	1954	0.13	-0.08	0.0	0.13	>1yr		13.8	2.6	0.7	10.6	6.3	1:15.7	0.77
Sierra Leone	7.08	1877	383	67	1427	0.59	-0.08	0.0	0.57	118d 14h		26.5	5.4	0.9	20.2	4.7	1:21.3	0.76
Western Africa	385.24	133591	26955	1999	104637	0.97	-5.98	0.92	3.53	72d 0h	75d 13h	34.7	7.0	0.5	27.2	1.9	1:52.4	0.78

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Burkina Faso	20.87	1158	143	54	961	5.6	1:17.8	0.83	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.07	Burkina Faso
Senegal	16.209	10715	3391	223	7101	3.1	1:31.8	0.66	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.37	Senegal
Nigeria	206.14	45244	11884	930	32430	2.9	1:34.8	0.72	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.12	Nigeria
Ghana	30.281	39642	3059	199	36384	0.6	1:181.8	0.92	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.18	Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	16447	3860	103	12484	0.8	1:120.5	0.76	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.12	Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia	4.475	1224	441	78	705	11.1	1:9.0	0.58	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.47	Liberia
Benin	11.733	1936	298	38	1600	2.4	1:42.0	0.83	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.09	Benin
Togo	7.538	1012	293	22	697	3.2	1:31.6	0.69	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.08	Togo
Niger	22.315	1153	27	69	1057	6.5	1:15.3	0.92	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.08	Niger
Guinea	12.218	7664	858	49	6757	0.7	1:137.0	0.88	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.11	Guinea
Gambia	2.348	935	783	16	136	11.8	1:8.5	0.15	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.07	0.18	Gambia
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	2032	1061	27	944	2.9	1:35.0	0.46	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.39	Guinea-Bissau
Mali	18.43	2552	474	124	1954	6.3	1:15.7	0.77	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.18	Mali
Sierra Leone	7.08	1877	383	67	1427	4.7	1:21.3	0.76	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.26	Sierra Leone
Western Africa	385.24	133591	26955	1999	104637	1.9	1:52.4	0.78	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.14	Western Africa

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt