COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	37206	9.7	892	2.46%	2.54%
Active cases	20552	5.3	367	1.82%	1.46%
Deaths	753	0.2	7	0.94%	1.97%
Recovered	15901	4.1	518	3.37%	2.87%

Deaths per infected	2.02%
Recovered per infected	42.74%
Active per infected	55.24%
Deaths per recovered	4.74%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.05%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	28d 13h	27d 14h
Time to reach a million cases	135d 15h	131d 1h
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	135	59
Active	na	109	70
Deaths	na	130	45
Recovered	na	128	51
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Burkina Faso	20.87	884	78	53	753	0.87	9.19	0.0	0.0	79d 22h		4.2	0.4	0.3	3.6	7.0	1:14.2	0.85
Senegal	16.209	3932	1824	45	2063	2.78	2.21	0.96	2.39	25d 7h	72d 5h	24.3	11.3	0.3	12.7	2.2	1:45.9	0.52
Nigeria	206.14	11166	7522	315	3329	3.73	2.77	3.78	3.76	18d 22h	18d 15h	5.4	3.6	0.2	1.6	9.5	1:10.6	0.3
Ghana	30.281	8548	5378	38	3132	2.34	0.45	2.27	4.45	29d 21h	30d 20h	28.2	17.8	0.1	10.3	1.2	1:82.6	0.37
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	3110	1545	35	1530	2.5	2.06	0.62	1.85	28d 2h	111d 5h	13.1	6.5	0.1	6.4	2.3	1:43.7	0.49
Liberia	4.475	316	119	28	169	2.97	3.05	0.74	2.75	23d 15h	93d 22h	7.1	2.7	0.6	3.8	16.6	1:6.0	0.53
Benin	11.733	244	93	3	148	1.74	1.86	0.0	1.72	40d 1h		2.1	0.8	0.0	1.3	2.0	1:49.3	0.61
Togo	7.538	452	203	13	236	1.1	-1.02	0.0	2.66	63d 9h		6.0	2.7	0.2	3.1	5.5	1:18.1	0.52
Niger	22.315	961	39	65	857	0.13	-9.16	0.31	0.85	>1yr	222d 3h	4.3	0.2	0.3	3.8	7.6	1:13.2	0.89
Guinea	12.218	3933	1578	23	2332	1.48	-0.44	0.91	2.57	47d 5h	76d 14h	32.2	12.9	0.2	19.1	1.0	1:101.0	0.59
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	1339	1278	8	53	1.32	1.19	0.0	5.24	52d 18h		72.0	68.7	0.4	2.8	15.1	1:6.6	0.04
Mali	18.43	1386	519	79	788	2.49	0.84	1.34	2.84	28d 4h	51d 21h	7.5	2.8	0.4	4.3	10.0	1:10.0	0.57
Sierra Leone	7.08	909	371	47	491	1.87	-1.32	0.44	4.52	37d 11h	156d 7h	12.8	5.2	0.7	6.9	9.6	1:10.4	0.54
Western Africa	385.24	37206	20552	753	15901	2.54	1.46	1.97	2.87	27d 14h	35d 14h	9.7	5.3	0.2	4.1	4.7	1:21.1	0.43

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Burkina Faso	20.87	884	78	53	753	7.0	1:14.2	0.85	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07	Burkina Faso
Senegal	16.209	3932	1824	45	2063	2.2	1:45.9	0.52	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.08	Senegal
Nigeria	206.14	11166	7522	315	3329	9.5	1:10.6	0.3	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	Nigeria
Ghana	30.281	8548	5378	38	3132	1.2	1:82.6	0.37	0.0	0.0	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	3110	1545	35	1530	2.3	1:43.7	0.49	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia	4.475	316	119	28	169	16.6	1:6.0	0.53	0.09	0.1	0.1	0.11	0.12	0.17	Liberia
Benin	11.733	244	93	3	148	2.0	1:49.3	0.61	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.01	Benin
Togo	7.538	452	203	13	236	5.5	1:18.1	0.52	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	Togo
Niger	22.315	961	39	65	857	7.6	1:13.2	0.89	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.08	Niger
Guinea	12.218	3933	1578	23	2332	1.0	1:101.0	0.59	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.05	Guinea
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	1339	1278	8	53	15.1	1:6.6	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.12	Guinea-Bissau
Mali	18.43	1386	519	79	788	10.0	1:10.0	0.57	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.12	Mali
Sierra Leone	7.08	909	371	47	491	9.6	1:10.4	0.54	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.18	Sierra Leone
Western Africa	385.24	37206	20552	753	15901	4.7	1:21.1	0.43	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.05	Western Africa

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt