COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 133591 34.7 1464 1.11% 0.97%
Active cases 26955 7.0 -240 -0.88% -5.98%
Deaths 1999 0.5 9 0.45% 0.92%
Recovered 10463727.216951.65%3.53%
Deaths per infected 1.5%
Recovered per infected78.33%
Active per infected 20.18%
Deaths per recovered 1.91%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 62d 21h 72d 0h
Time to reach a million cases 182d 16h209d 3h
Time to saturate the population>1yr stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 131 81
Active na 130 165
Deaths na 134 62
Recovered na 119 19
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Burkina Faso20.871158143549610.26-0.330.380.26265d 12h184d 0h5.
Senegal16.20910715339122371010.830.480.850.4884d 7h81d 22h66.120.91.443.83.11:31.80.66
Nigeria206.144524411884930324300.77-9.440.9811.690d 2h71d 2h21.95.80.515.72.91:34.80.72
Ghana30.281396423059199363841.39-0.891.831.350d 5h38d 6h130.910.10.7120.20.61:181.80.92
Cote d'Ivoire23.74164473860103124840.42-0.950.20.74166d 20h353d 20h69.316.30.452.60.81:120.50.76
Liberia4.4751224441787050.580.160.790.77119d 5h87d 17h27.39.91.715.811.11:9.00.58
Benin11.73319362983816001.44-9.991.1110.8948d 13h62d 17h16.52.50.313.62.41:42.00.83
Togo7.5381012293226971.1- 3h33d 6h13.
Niger22.3151153276910570.3-4.890.00.56232d 18h5.
Guinea12.21876648584967570.962.181.290.5372d 18h54d 5h62.77.00.455.30.71:137.00.88
Gambia2.3489357831613614.1710.5713.9712.355d 5h5d 7h39.833.40.75.811.81:8.50.15
Guinea-Bissau1.8620321061279440.51-1.560.03.51134d 23h109.257.01.550.82.91:35.00.46
Sierra Leone7.0818773836714270.59- 14h26.55.40.920.24.71:21.30.76
Western Africa385.241335912695519991046370.97-5.980.923.5372d 0h75d 13h34.77.00.527.21.91:52.40.78

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Burkina Faso20.871158143549615.61:17.80.830. Faso
Cote d'Ivoire23.74164473860103124840.81:120.50.760. d'Ivoire
Sierra Leone7.0818773836714274.71:21.30.760. Leone
Western Africa385.241335912695519991046371.91:52.40.780. Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt