COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	173878	45.1	367	0.21%	0.19%
Active cases	14464	3.8	-66	-0.45%	-1.14%
Deaths	2581	0.7	0	0.0%	0.09%
Recovered	156833	40.7	433	0.28%	0.27%

Deaths per infected	1.48%
Recovered per infected	90.2%
Active per infected	8.32%
Deaths per recovered	1.65%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.18%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	328d 1h	>1yr
Time to reach a million cases	stable	stable
Time to saturate the population	stable	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	141	143
Active	na	142	144
Deaths	na	145	121
Recovered	na	132	111
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Burkina Faso	20.87	2254	678	60	1516	0.79	-0.4	0.34	1.2	88d 0h	204d 19h	10.8	3.2	0.3	7.3	4.0	1:25.3	0.67
Senegal	16.209	15213	1764	313	13136	0.16	-1.76	0.06	0.41	>1yr	stable	93.9	10.9	1.9	81.0	2.4	1:42.0	0.86
Nigeria	206.14	59992	7265	1113	51614	0.22	-0.77	0.0	0.31	319d 14h		29.1	3.5	0.5	25.0	2.2	1:46.3	0.86
Ghana	30.281	46987	303	306	46378	0.07	-3.61	0.2	0.09	stable	350d 9h	155.2	1.0	1.0	153.2	0.7	1:151.5	0.99
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	20036	220	120	19696	0.15	-5.15	0.0	0.18	>1yr		84.4	0.9	0.5	83.0	0.6	1:163.9	0.98
Liberia	4.475	1360	33	82	1245	0.18	2.85	0.0	0.15	>1yr		30.4	0.7	1.8	27.8	6.6	1:15.2	0.92
Benin	11.733	2411	397	41	1973	0.46	3.15	0.0	0.0	151d 14h		20.5	3.4	0.3	16.8	2.1	1:48.1	0.82
Togo	7.538	1921	439	49	1433	0.71	0.86	0.42	0.48	97d 14h	166d 16h	25.5	5.8	0.7	19.0	3.4	1:29.2	0.75
Niger	22.315	1201	9	69	1123	0.02	-6.53	0.0	0.13	stable		5.4	0.0	0.3	5.0	6.1	1:16.3	0.94
Guinea	12.218	10954	621	68	10265	0.37	0.45	0.6	0.26	187d 23h	115d 13h	89.7	5.1	0.6	84.0	0.7	1:151.5	0.94
Gambia	2.348	3621	1015	117	2489	0.15	-3.01	0.35	1.89	>1yr	199d 15h	154.2	43.2	5.0	106.0	4.7	1:21.3	0.69
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	2385	617	40	1728	0.19	-4.06	0.51	2.31	356d 6h	135d 12h	128.2	33.2	2.2	92.9	2.3	1:43.3	0.72
Mali	18.43	3248	603	131	2514	0.4	0.83	0.0	0.22	174d 0h		17.6	3.3	0.7	13.6	5.2	1:19.2	0.77
Sierra Leone	7.08	2295	500	72	1723	0.23	0.36	0.0	0.18	304d 0h		32.4	7.1	1.0	24.3	4.2	1:23.9	0.75
Western Africa	385.24	173878	14464	2581	156833	0.19	-1.14	0.09	0.27	>1yr	stable	45.1	3.8	0.7	40.7	1.6	1:60.6	0.9

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Burkina Faso	20.87	2254	678	60	1516	4.0	1:25.3	0.67	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.08	Burkina Faso
Senegal	16.209	15213	1764	313	13136	2.4	1:42.0	0.86	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.52	Senegal
Nigeria	206.14	59992	7265	1113	51614	2.2	1:46.3	0.86	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.15	Nigeria
Ghana	30.281	46987	303	306	46378	0.7	1:151.5	0.99	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.27	Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	20036	220	120	19696	0.6	1:163.9	0.98	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.14	Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia	4.475	1360	33	82	1245	6.6	1:15.2	0.92	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.5	Liberia
Benin	11.733	2411	397	41	1973	2.1	1:48.1	0.82	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.09	Benin
Togo	7.538	1921	439	49	1433	3.4	1:29.2	0.75	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.18	Togo
Niger	22.315	1201	9	69	1123	6.1	1:16.3	0.94	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.08	Niger
Guinea	12.218	10954	621	68	10265	0.7	1:151.5	0.94	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.15	Guinea
Gambia	2.348	3621	1015	117	2489	4.7	1:21.3	0.69	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.35	Gambia
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	2385	617	40	1728	2.3	1:43.3	0.72	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.58	Guinea-Bissau
Mali	18.43	3248	603	131	2514	5.2	1:19.2	0.77	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.19	Mali
Sierra Leone	7.08	2295	500	72	1723	4.2	1:23.9	0.75	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.27	Sierra Leone
Western Africa	385.24	173878	14464	2581	156833	1.6	1:60.6	0.9	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.18	Western Africa

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt