COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 37206 9.7 892 2.46% 2.54%
Active cases 20552 5.3 367 1.82% 1.46%
Deaths 753 0.2 7 0.94% 1.97%
Recovered 159014.15183.37%2.87%
Deaths per infected 2.02%
Recovered per infected42.74%
Active per infected 55.24%
Deaths per recovered 4.74%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.05%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 28d 13h 27d 14h
Time to reach a million cases 135d 15h131d 1h
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 135 59
Active na 109 70
Deaths na 130 45
Recovered na 128 51
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Burkina Faso20.8788478537530.879.190.00.079d 22h4.20.40.33.67.01:14.20.85
Senegal16.209393218244520632.782.210.962.3925d 7h72d 5h24.311.30.312.72.21:45.90.52
Nigeria206.1411166752231533293.732.773.783.7618d 22h18d 15h5.43.60.21.69.51:10.60.3
Ghana30.281854853783831322.340.452.274.4529d 21h30d 20h28.217.80.110.31.21:82.60.37
Cote d'Ivoire23.74311015453515302.52.060.621.8528d 2h111d 5h13.16.50.16.42.31:43.70.49
Liberia4.475316119281692.973.050.742.7523d 15h93d 22h7.12.70.63.816.61:6.00.53
Benin11.7332449331481.741.860.01.7240d 1h2.10.80.01.32.01:49.30.61
Togo7.538452203132361.1-1.020.02.6663d 9h6.02.70.23.15.51:18.10.52
Niger22.31596139658570.13-9.160.310.85>1yr222d 3h4.30.20.33.87.61:13.20.89
Guinea12.218393315782323321.48-0.440.912.5747d 5h76d 14h32.212.90.219.11.01:101.00.59
Guinea-Bissau1.86133912788531.321.190.05.2452d 18h72.068.70.42.815.11:6.60.04
Mali18.431386519797882.490.841.342.8428d 4h51d 21h7.52.80.44.310.01:10.00.57
Sierra Leone7.08909371474911.87-1.320.444.5237d 11h156d 7h12.85.20.76.99.61:10.40.54
Western Africa385.243720620552753159012.541.461.972.8727d 14h35d 14h9.75.30.24.14.71:21.10.43

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Burkina Faso20.8788478537537.01:14.20.850.060.060.060.060.070.07Burkina Faso
Senegal16.209393218244520632.21:45.90.520.010.010.010.010.020.08Senegal
Nigeria206.1411166752231533299.51:10.60.30.030.030.040.040.040.04Nigeria
Ghana30.281854853783831321.21:82.60.370.00.00.010.010.010.03Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire23.74311015453515302.31:43.70.490.010.010.010.010.020.04Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia4.4753161192816916.61:6.00.530.090.10.10.110.120.17Liberia
Benin11.7332449331482.01:49.30.610.010.010.010.020.020.01Benin
Togo7.538452203132365.51:18.10.520.030.030.030.030.040.05Togo
Niger22.31596139658577.61:13.20.890.070.070.070.070.070.08Niger
Guinea12.218393315782323321.01:101.00.590.010.010.010.010.010.05Guinea
Guinea-Bissau1.861339127885315.11:6.60.040.010.010.010.010.010.12Guinea-Bissau
Mali18.4313865197978810.01:10.00.570.060.060.070.070.080.12Mali
Sierra Leone7.08909371474919.61:10.40.540.050.060.060.060.080.18Sierra Leone
Western Africa385.243720620552753159014.71:21.10.430.020.020.020.030.030.05Western Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt