COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 193610 50.3 550 0.28% 0.24%
Active cases 8706 2.3 253 2.99% 0.13%
Deaths 2750 0.7 4 0.15% 0.06%
Recovered 18215447.32930.16%0.19%
Deaths per infected 1.42%
Recovered per infected94.08%
Active per infected 4.5%
Deaths per recovered 1.51%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 243d 15h 291d 15h
Time to reach a million cases >1yr>1yr
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 147 149
Active na 156 110
Deaths na 147 123
Recovered na 140 123
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Burkina Faso20.8728161696825790.591.070.00.28118d 11h13.50.80.312.42.61:37.90.92
Nigeria206.146722033631171626860.250.530.030.16276d 13hstable32.61.60.630.41.91:53.50.93
Cote d'Ivoire23.7421232228131208730.090.820.00.05stable89.41.00.687.90.61:158.70.98
Liberia4.47515951698313430.564.140.240.14123d 10h284d 12h35.63.81.930.06.21:16.20.84
Benin11.73329743524325790.43.950.00.0174d 14h25.33.00.422.01.71:59.90.87
Togo7.53829264616424010.58-1.390.00.85120d 10h38.86.10.831.92.71:37.50.82
Niger22.31514722107011921.487.780.00.2747d 6h6.
Guinea12.2181303998176119820.330.830.270.14210d 6h260d 6h106.78.00.698.10.61:158.70.92
Mali18.434567132714930911.433.380.410.3448d 22h168d 15h24.87.20.816.84.81:20.70.68
Sierra Leone7.0824105037418330.
Western Africa385.24193610870627501821540. 15hstable50.32.30.747.31.51:66.20.94

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Burkina Faso20.8728161696825792.61:37.90.920. Faso
Cote d'Ivoire23.7421232228131208730.61:158.70.980. d'Ivoire
Sierra Leone7.0824105037418334.01:24.80.760. Leone
Western Africa385.24193610870627501821541.51:66.20.940. Africa

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt