COVID-19 - Western Africa - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Africa is a Group with the following members:
Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	193610	50.3	550	0.28%	0.24%
Active cases	8706	2.3	253	2.99%	0.13%
Deaths	2750	0.7	4	0.15%	0.06%
Recovered	182154	47.3	293	0.16%	0.19%

Deaths per infected	1.42%
Recovered per infected	94.08%
Active per infected	4.5%
Deaths per recovered	1.51%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.19%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	243d 15h	291d 15h
Time to reach a million cases	>1yr	>1yr
Time to saturate the population	stable	stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	192	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	147	149
Active	na	156	110
Deaths	na	147	123
Recovered	na	140	123
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Africa

Benin - Burkina Faso - Cote d'Ivoire - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Liberia - Mali - Niger - Nigeria - Senegal - Sierra Leone - Togo

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Burkina Faso	20.87	2816	169	68	2579	0.59	1.07	0.0	0.28	118d 11h		13.5	0.8	0.3	12.4	2.6	1:37.9	0.92
Senegal	16.209	15981	80	332	15569	0.12	3.3	0.06	0.09	>1yr	stable	98.6	0.5	2.0	96.1	2.1	1:46.9	0.97
Nigeria	206.14	67220	3363	1171	62686	0.25	0.53	0.03	0.16	276d 13h	stable	32.6	1.6	0.6	30.4	1.9	1:53.5	0.93
Ghana	30.281	51225	775	323	50127	0.14	-7.26	0.0	0.29	>1yr		169.2	2.6	1.1	165.5	0.6	1:156.2	0.98
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	21232	228	131	20873	0.09	0.82	0.0	0.05	stable		89.4	1.0	0.6	87.9	0.6	1:158.7	0.98
Liberia	4.475	1595	169	83	1343	0.56	4.14	0.24	0.14	123d 10h	284d 12h	35.6	3.8	1.9	30.0	6.2	1:16.2	0.84
Benin	11.733	2974	352	43	2579	0.4	3.95	0.0	0.0	174d 14h		25.3	3.0	0.4	22.0	1.7	1:59.9	0.87
Togo	7.538	2926	461	64	2401	0.58	-1.39	0.0	0.85	120d 10h		38.8	6.1	0.8	31.9	2.7	1:37.5	0.82
Niger	22.315	1472	210	70	1192	1.48	7.78	0.0	0.27	47d 6h		6.6	0.9	0.3	5.3	5.9	1:17.0	0.81
Guinea	12.218	13039	981	76	11982	0.33	0.83	0.27	0.14	210d 6h	260d 6h	106.7	8.0	0.6	98.1	0.6	1:158.7	0.92
Gambia	2.348	3731	18	123	3590	0.03	-3.97	0.0	0.03	stable		158.9	0.8	5.2	152.9	3.4	1:29.2	0.96
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	2422	70	43	2309	0.01	-4.78	0.0	0.2	stable		130.2	3.8	2.3	124.1	1.9	1:53.8	0.95
Mali	18.43	4567	1327	149	3091	1.43	3.38	0.41	0.34	48d 22h	168d 15h	24.8	7.2	0.8	16.8	4.8	1:20.7	0.68
Sierra Leone	7.08	2410	503	74	1833	0.04	0.04	0.0	0.03	stable		34.0	7.1	1.0	25.9	4.0	1:24.8	0.76
Western Africa	385.24	193610	8706	2750	182154	0.24	0.13	0.06	0.19	291d 15h	stable	50.3	2.3	0.7	47.3	1.5	1:66.2	0.94

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Burkina Faso	20.87	2816	169	68	2579	2.6	1:37.9	0.92	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.09	Burkina Faso
Senegal	16.209	15981	80	332	15569	2.1	1:46.9	0.97	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.55	Senegal
Nigeria	206.14	67220	3363	1171	62686	1.9	1:53.5	0.93	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.15	Nigeria
Ghana	30.281	51225	775	323	50127	0.6	1:156.2	0.98	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.29	Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire	23.74	21232	228	131	20873	0.6	1:158.7	0.98	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.15	Cote d'Ivoire
Liberia	4.475	1595	169	83	1343	6.2	1:16.2	0.84	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.5	Liberia
Benin	11.733	2974	352	43	2579	1.7	1:59.9	0.87	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.1	Benin
Togo	7.538	2926	461	64	2401	2.7	1:37.5	0.82	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.23	Togo
Niger	22.315	1472	210	70	1192	5.9	1:17.0	0.81	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.08	Niger
Guinea	12.218	13039	981	76	11982	0.6	1:158.7	0.92	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.17	Guinea
Gambia	2.348	3731	18	123	3590	3.4	1:29.2	0.96	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.42	Gambia
Guinea-Bissau	1.86	2422	70	43	2309	1.9	1:53.8	0.95	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.62	Guinea-Bissau
Mali	18.43	4567	1327	149	3091	4.8	1:20.7	0.68	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.22	Mali
Sierra Leone	7.08	2410	503	74	1833	4.0	1:24.8	0.76	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.28	Sierra Leone
Western Africa	385.24	193610	8706	2750	182154	1.5	1:66.2	0.94	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.19	Western Africa

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt