Western Asia is a Group with the following members:
Armenia - Azerbaijan - Bahrain - Cyprus - Georgia - Iraq - Israel - Jordan - Kuwait - Lebanon - Oman - Qatar - Saudi Arabia - Syria - Turkey - United Arab Emirates - West Bank and Gaza - Yemen
|
|
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though. | ||
Last days rate | Last average rate | |
---|---|---|
Time to double cases | 32d 7h | 50d 15h |
Time to reach a million cases | ||
Time to saturate the population | 206d 19h | 324d 5h |
A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview. | |||
Total: | 192 | Population | na |
---|---|---|---|
Total cases | Cases per 100.000 | Average grow rate (5 days) | |
Infected | na | 67 | 54 |
Active | na | 64 | 37 |
Deaths | na | 67 | 52 |
Recovered | na | 53 | 73 |
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both! |
Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Deaths | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | |
absolute values | Percentage growthrate 5d | Time to double | Cases per 100.000 | % / ratio | ||||||||||||||
Israel | 9.175 | 333802 | 9617 | 2839 | 321346 | 0.3 | 2.77 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 235d 2h | 278d 17h | 3638.3 | 104.8 | 30.9 | 3502.6 | 0.9 | 1:113.6 | 0.96 |
Qatar | 2.747 | 138250 | 2643 | 237 | 135370 | 0.15 | -0.59 | 0.08 | 0.14 | >1yr | stable | 5032.2 | 96.2 | 8.6 | 4927.4 | 0.2 | 1:555.6 | 0.98 |
Turkey | 83.155 | 548244 | 142437 | 13191 | 392616 | 4.23 | 12.42 | 1.04 | 0.74 | 16d 17h | 66d 22h | 659.3 | 171.3 | 15.9 | 472.1 | 3.4 | 1:29.8 | 0.72 |
Bahrain | 1.543 | 86515 | 1521 | 341 | 84653 | 0.19 | -0.55 | 0.18 | 0.16 | >1yr | >1yr | 5605.8 | 98.6 | 22.1 | 5485.2 | 0.4 | 1:250.0 | 0.98 |
Saudi Arabia | 34.218 | 356691 | 5212 | 5857 | 345622 | 0.08 | -2.66 | 0.21 | 0.11 | stable | 335d 12h | 1042.4 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 1010.1 | 1.7 | 1:59.2 | 0.97 |
Iraq | 39.128 | 547215 | 58751 | 12167 | 476297 | 0.44 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 157d 17h | 249d 18h | 1398.5 | 150.2 | 31.1 | 1217.3 | 2.5 | 1:39.2 | 0.87 |
Lebanon | 6.825 | 123982 | 48994 | 980 | 74008 | 1.26 | 0.49 | 1.6 | 1.29 | 55d 11h | 43d 17h | 1816.5 | 717.8 | 14.4 | 1084.3 | 1.3 | 1:75.8 | 0.6 |
Kuwait | 4.42 | 141876 | 5699 | 874 | 135303 | 0.26 | -3.29 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 268d 10h | >1yr | 3209.8 | 128.9 | 19.8 | 3061.1 | 0.7 | 1:153.8 | 0.95 |
United Arab Emirates | 9.89 | 165250 | 11975 | 567 | 152708 | 0.78 | 3.83 | 0.43 | 0.4 | 89d 17h | 160d 22h | 1670.8 | 121.1 | 5.7 | 1544.0 | 0.4 | 1:270.3 | 0.92 |
Armenia | 2.958 | 132346 | 25107 | 2090 | 105149 | 0.95 | -3.06 | 1.16 | 1.85 | 73d 2h | 59d 22h | 4474.9 | 848.9 | 70.7 | 3555.3 | 2.0 | 1:50.3 | 0.79 |
Jordan | 10.641 | 207601 | 64631 | 2570 | 140400 | 2.51 | -0.69 | 2.34 | 3.55 | 27d 23h | 29d 23h | 1951.0 | 607.4 | 24.2 | 1319.5 | 1.8 | 1:54.6 | 0.68 |
Cyprus | 0.875 | 9983 | 7878 | 48 | 2057 | 2.93 | 2.97 | 1.77 | 0.0 | 24d 0h | 39d 12h | 1140.9 | 900.3 | 5.5 | 235.1 | 2.3 | 1:42.9 | 0.21 |
Oman | 4.665 | 122579 | 7332 | 1391 | 113856 | 0.08 | -0.27 | 0.16 | 0.1 | stable | >1yr | 2627.7 | 157.2 | 29.8 | 2440.7 | 1.2 | 1:82.0 | 0.93 |
Azerbaijan | 10.067 | 109813 | 38591 | 1291 | 69931 | 3.36 | 5.26 | 2.12 | 1.44 | 20d 23h | 32d 23h | 1090.8 | 383.3 | 12.8 | 694.6 | 1.9 | 1:54.1 | 0.64 |
Georgia | 3.724 | 123470 | 20039 | 1161 | 102270 | 3.35 | 0.74 | 2.87 | 2.91 | 21d 1h | 24d 11h | 3316.0 | 538.2 | 31.2 | 2746.6 | 1.1 | 1:87.7 | 0.83 |
Syria | 17.5 | 7635 | 3842 | 404 | 3389 | 1.11 | 0.32 | 1.2 | 1.46 | 62d 18h | 58d 6h | 43.6 | 22.0 | 2.3 | 19.4 | 11.9 | 1:8.4 | 0.44 |
West Bank and Gaza | 3.7 | 80429 | 17780 | 689 | 61960 | 2.34 | 6.75 | 1.35 | 0.74 | 29d 23h | 51d 16h | 2173.8 | 480.5 | 18.6 | 1674.6 | 1.1 | 1:90.1 | 0.77 |
Yemen | 28.25 | 2148 | 43 | 614 | 1491 | 0.46 | -0.82 | 0.13 | 0.49 | 150d 4h | >1yr | 7.6 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 41.2 | 1:2.4 | 0.69 |
Western Asia | 273.48 | 3237829 | 472092 | 47311 | 2718426 | 1.38 | 2.71 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 50d 15h | 90d 9h | 1183.9 | 172.6 | 17.3 | 994.0 | 1.7 | 1:57.5 | 0.84 |
Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | Deaths per infected ... days ago | Possible Total % | Country | |||||
absolute values | % / ratio | 0d | 5d | 7d | 10d | 14d | |||||||||
Israel | 9.175 | 333802 | 9617 | 2839 | 321346 | 0.9 | 1:113.6 | 0.96 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8.36 | Israel |
Qatar | 2.747 | 138250 | 2643 | 237 | 135370 | 0.2 | 1:555.6 | 0.98 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.33 | Qatar |
Turkey | 83.155 | 548244 | 142437 | 13191 | 392616 | 3.4 | 1:29.8 | 0.72 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 4.29 | Turkey |
Bahrain | 1.543 | 86515 | 1521 | 341 | 84653 | 0.4 | 1:250.0 | 0.98 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.97 | Bahrain |
Saudi Arabia | 34.218 | 356691 | 5212 | 5857 | 345622 | 1.7 | 1:59.2 | 0.97 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 4.63 | Saudi Arabia |
Iraq | 39.128 | 547215 | 58751 | 12167 | 476297 | 2.5 | 1:39.2 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 8.4 | Iraq |
Lebanon | 6.825 | 123982 | 48994 | 980 | 74008 | 1.3 | 1:75.8 | 0.6 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 3.88 | Lebanon |
Kuwait | 4.42 | 141876 | 5699 | 874 | 135303 | 0.7 | 1:153.8 | 0.95 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 5.34 | Kuwait |
United Arab Emirates | 9.89 | 165250 | 11975 | 567 | 152708 | 0.4 | 1:270.3 | 0.92 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.55 | United Arab Emirates |
Armenia | 2.958 | 132346 | 25107 | 2090 | 105149 | 2.0 | 1:50.3 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 19.1 | Armenia |
Jordan | 10.641 | 207601 | 64631 | 2570 | 140400 | 1.8 | 1:54.6 | 0.68 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 6.53 | Jordan |
Cyprus | 0.875 | 9983 | 7878 | 48 | 2057 | 2.3 | 1:42.9 | 0.21 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 1.48 | Cyprus |
Oman | 4.665 | 122579 | 7332 | 1391 | 113856 | 1.2 | 1:82.0 | 0.93 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8.06 | Oman |
Azerbaijan | 10.067 | 109813 | 38591 | 1291 | 69931 | 1.9 | 1:54.1 | 0.64 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 3.47 | Azerbaijan |
Georgia | 3.724 | 123470 | 20039 | 1161 | 102270 | 1.1 | 1:87.7 | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 8.43 | Georgia |
Syria | 17.5 | 7635 | 3842 | 404 | 3389 | 11.9 | 1:8.4 | 0.44 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.62 | Syria |
West Bank and Gaza | 3.7 | 80429 | 17780 | 689 | 61960 | 1.1 | 1:90.1 | 0.77 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 5.03 | West Bank and Gaza |
Yemen | 28.25 | 2148 | 43 | 614 | 1491 | 41.2 | 1:2.4 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.3 | 0.59 | Yemen |
Western Asia | 273.48 | 3237829 | 472092 | 47311 | 2718426 | 1.7 | 1:57.5 | 0.84 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 4.68 | Western Asia |
A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected
county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first
reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to
the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally
other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are
more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number.
Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get
other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results. Links (German): Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt |