COVID-19 - Western Asia - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Western Asia is a Group with the following members:
Armenia - Azerbaijan - Bahrain - Cyprus - Georgia - Iraq - Israel - Jordan - Kuwait - Lebanon - Oman - Qatar - Saudi Arabia - Syria - Turkey - United Arab Emirates - West Bank and Gaza - Yemen

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	2110801	771.8	14646	0.7%	0.84%
Active cases	266671	97.5	-603	-0.23%	0.18%
Deaths	31435	11.5	231	0.74%	0.65%
Recovered	1812695	662.8	15018	0.84%	0.78%

Deaths per infected	1.49%
Recovered per infected	85.88%
Active per infected	12.63%
Deaths per recovered	1.73%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	3.11%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	99d 13h	82d 16h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	48	78
Active	na	62	105
Deaths	na	54	54
Recovered	na	39	62
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Western Asia

Armenia - Azerbaijan - Bahrain - Cyprus - Georgia - Iraq - Israel - Jordan - Kuwait - Lebanon - Oman - Qatar - Saudi Arabia - Syria - Turkey - United Arab Emirates - West Bank and Gaza - Yemen

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Israel	9.175	287858	60724	1886	225248	1.53	-2.25	1.64	2.53	45d 13h	42d 16h	3137.6	661.9	20.6	2455.1	0.8	1:119.0	0.78
Qatar	2.747	127600	2822	219	124559	0.17	0.3	0.19	0.14	>1yr	>1yr	4644.6	102.7	8.0	4533.9	0.2	1:555.6	0.98
Turkey	83.155	332382	31906	8722	291754	0.48	0.5	0.53	0.37	143d 8h	131d 1h	399.7	38.4	10.5	350.9	3.0	1:33.4	0.88
Bahrain	1.543	74860	4183	271	70406	0.6	-0.52	0.31	0.57	116d 7h	226d 16h	4850.6	271.0	17.6	4562.0	0.4	1:263.2	0.94
Saudi Arabia	34.218	338539	9261	4996	324282	0.13	-1.3	0.4	0.14	>1yr	175d 19h	989.4	27.1	14.6	947.7	1.5	1:64.9	0.96
Iraq	39.128	397780	59948	9735	328097	0.96	-0.38	0.6	1.04	72d 5h	116d 8h	1016.6	153.2	24.9	838.5	3.0	1:33.7	0.82
Lebanon	6.825	51170	28313	450	22407	2.84	2.55	1.58	1.93	24d 17h	44d 5h	749.7	414.8	6.6	328.3	2.0	1:49.8	0.44
Kuwait	4.42	110076	7403	649	102024	0.56	0.34	0.57	0.46	123d 7h	121d 17h	2490.4	167.5	14.7	2308.2	0.6	1:156.2	0.93
United Arab Emirates	9.89	104004	8659	442	94903	1.03	-2.51	0.56	1.19	67d 12h	124d 12h	1051.6	87.5	4.5	959.5	0.5	1:212.8	0.91
Armenia	2.958	55087	8549	1010	45528	0.97	3.6	0.55	0.29	71d 21h	127d 0h	1862.6	289.1	34.2	1539.4	2.2	1:45.0	0.83
Jordan	10.641	22763	16691	166	5906	7.82	8.8	7.42	1.98	9d 5h	9d 16h	213.9	156.9	1.6	55.5	2.8	1:35.6	0.26
Cyprus	0.875	1951	557	25	1369	1.36	3.95	1.78	0.0	51d 11h	39d 7h	223.0	63.7	2.9	156.5	1.8	1:54.6	0.7
Oman	4.665	104129	11389	1009	91731	0.56	2.67	0.65	0.32	124d 9h	107d 10h	2232.2	244.1	21.6	1966.5	1.1	1:90.9	0.88
Azerbaijan	10.067	41519	1785	605	39129	0.4	1.11	0.23	0.27	172d 0h	296d 16h	412.4	17.7	6.0	388.7	1.6	1:64.5	0.94
Georgia	3.724	10752	4814	72	5866	5.78	3.82	5.76	5.57	12d 7h	12d 9h	288.8	129.3	1.9	157.5	1.2	1:81.3	0.55
Syria	17.5	4616	3163	218	1235	1.12	0.87	0.96	0.97	62d 5h	72d 15h	26.4	18.1	1.2	7.1	17.6	1:5.7	0.27
West Bank and Gaza	3.7	43664	6375	367	36922	1.02	-0.48	1.7	1.07	68d 2h	41d 0h	1180.1	172.3	9.9	997.9	1.0	1:101.0	0.85
Yemen	28.25	2051	129	593	1329	0.1	-0.3	0.07	0.14	>1yr	stable	7.3	0.5	2.1	4.7	44.6	1:2.2	0.65
Western Asia	273.48	2110801	266671	31435	1812695	0.84	0.18	0.65	0.78	82d 16h	107d 12h	771.8	97.5	11.5	662.8	1.7	1:57.8	0.86

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Israel	9.175	287858	60724	1886	225248	0.8	1:119.0	0.78	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5.56	Israel
Qatar	2.747	127600	2822	219	124559	0.2	1:555.6	0.98	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.15	Qatar
Turkey	83.155	332382	31906	8722	291754	3.0	1:33.4	0.88	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	2.83	Turkey
Bahrain	1.543	74860	4183	271	70406	0.4	1:263.2	0.94	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.75	Bahrain
Saudi Arabia	34.218	338539	9261	4996	324282	1.5	1:64.9	0.96	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	3.95	Saudi Arabia
Iraq	39.128	397780	59948	9735	328097	3.0	1:33.7	0.82	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	6.72	Iraq
Lebanon	6.825	51170	28313	450	22407	2.0	1:49.8	0.44	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.78	Lebanon
Kuwait	4.42	110076	7403	649	102024	0.6	1:156.2	0.93	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3.97	Kuwait
United Arab Emirates	9.89	104004	8659	442	94903	0.5	1:212.8	0.91	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.21	United Arab Emirates
Armenia	2.958	55087	8549	1010	45528	2.2	1:45.0	0.83	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	9.23	Armenia
Jordan	10.641	22763	16691	166	5906	2.8	1:35.6	0.26	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.42	Jordan
Cyprus	0.875	1951	557	25	1369	1.8	1:54.6	0.7	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.77	Cyprus
Oman	4.665	104129	11389	1009	91731	1.1	1:90.9	0.88	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5.85	Oman
Azerbaijan	10.067	41519	1785	605	39129	1.6	1:64.5	0.94	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	1.62	Azerbaijan
Georgia	3.724	10752	4814	72	5866	1.2	1:81.3	0.55	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.52	Georgia
Syria	17.5	4616	3163	218	1235	17.6	1:5.7	0.27	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.34	Syria
West Bank and Gaza	3.7	43664	6375	367	36922	1.0	1:101.0	0.85	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.68	West Bank and Gaza
Yemen	28.25	2051	129	593	1329	44.6	1:2.2	0.65	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.57	Yemen
Western Asia	273.48	2110801	266671	31435	1812695	1.7	1:57.8	0.86	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	3.11	Western Asia

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt