COVID-19 - Italy - 20-09-22

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Italy is included in the following groups: EU - G7 - G20 - Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Western European and Others Group - WHO European Region
Italy has a landborder to: Austria - France - San Marino - Slovenia - Switzerland - Holy See

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 300897 499.5 1391 0.46% 0.53%
Active cases 45489 75.5 410 0.91% 1.71%
Deaths 35738 59.3 14 0.04% 0.04%
Recovered 219670364.69670.44%0.25%
Deaths per infected 11.88%
Recovered per infected73.01%
Active per infected 15.12%
Deaths per recovered 16.27%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
16.03%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 149d 14h 130d 17h
Time to reach a million cases 259d 4h226d 12h
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 24
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 20 58 98
Active 22 63 55
Deaths 6 12 114
Recovered 19 54 116
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Italy

Austria - France - San Marino - Slovenia - Switzerland - Holy See

Italy in its groups

EU - G7 - G20 - Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Western European and Others Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt