COVID-19 - Serbia - 20-04-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Serbia is included in the following groups: Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Serbia has a landborder to: Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Hungary - Kosovo - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Romania

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 2867 41.2 201 7.54% 14.31%
Active cases 2801 40.2 200 7.69% 12.85%
Deaths 66 0.9 1 1.54% 10.9%
Recovered 150.000.0%0.0%
Deaths per infected 2.3%
Recovered per infected0.52%
Active per infected 97.7%
Deaths per recovered 440.0%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 9d 12h 5d 4h
Time to reach a million cases 80d 13h43d 18h
Time to saturate the population107d 5h 58d 7h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 106
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 41 37 35
Active 34 34 32
Deaths 43 32 42
Recovered 43 159 131
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt