COVID-19 - Bulgaria - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Bulgaria is included in the following groups: EU - Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Bulgaria has a landborder to: Greece - North Macedonia - Romania - Serbia - Turkey

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 139955 1999.4 3327 2.44% 2.82%
Active cases 89535 1279.1 1311 1.49% 1.38%
Deaths 3680 52.6 151 4.28% 4.17%
Recovered 46740667.718654.16%4.23%
Deaths per infected 2.63%
Recovered per infected33.4%
Active per infected 63.97%
Deaths per recovered 7.87%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
14.21%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 28d 19h 24d 23h
Time to reach a million cases 81d 17h70d 19h
Time to saturate the population162d 14h 140d 22h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population 105
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 48 45 13
Active 23 14 59
Deaths 41 30 4
Recovered 78 67 5
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Bulgaria

Greece - North Macedonia - Romania - Serbia - Turkey

Bulgaria in its groups

EU - Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt