COVID-19 - Southern Asia - 20-06-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Asia is a Group with the following members:
Afghanistan - Bangladesh - Bhutan - India - Iran - Maldives - Nepal - Pakistan - Sri Lanka

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 599605 31.3 21012 3.63% 3.87%
Active cases 280811 14.7 10645 3.94% 3.88%
Deaths 18295 1.0 525 2.95% 2.14%
Recovered 30049915.798423.39%2.55%
Deaths per infected 3.05%
Recovered per infected50.12%
Active per infected 46.83%
Deaths per recovered 6.09%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.26%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 19d 10h 18d 5h
Time to reach a million cases 14d 8h13d 11h
Time to saturate the population226d 4h 212d 10h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 87 39
Active na 70 30
Deaths na 81 48
Recovered na 93 66
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Asia

Afghanistan - Bangladesh - Bhutan - India - Iran - Maldives - Nepal - Pakistan - Sri Lanka

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Iran83.2981694252917882091320381.872.770.641.4137d 10h108d 6h203.435.09.9158.56.21:16.10.78
Pakistan219.01793983594671935325815.344.663.583.6713d 7h19d 17h42.927.20.914.95.91:16.80.35
India1360.05424662212098169461186954.453.713.483.4315d 22h20d 6h18.18.90.58.75.81:17.10.48
Sri Lanka21.8031814912118912.012.610.01.1434d 20h8.34.20.14.11.21:81.30.49
Afghanistan32.226195511739432718304.423.773.164.3616d 0h22d 6h60.754.01.05.717.91:5.60.09
Bangladesh168.3046302648855846133254.944.123.853.8814d 9h18d 8h37.429.00.57.96.31:15.70.21
Maldives0.3751901113087630.78-2.733.338.3689d 17h21d 3h507.2301.52.1203.61.11:95.20.4
Nepal29.61323528571336512.3310.336.728.85d 23h10d 15h10.99.60.01.23.61:28.10.11
Southern Asia1915.43599605280811182953004993.873.882.142.5518d 5h32d 18h31.314.71.015.76.11:16.40.5

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Iran83.2981694252917882091320386.21:16.10.780.050.050.050.060.062.66Iran
Pakistan219.01793983594671935325815.91:16.80.350.020.030.030.030.040.24Pakistan
India1360.05424662212098169461186955.81:17.10.480.030.030.040.040.050.14India
Sri Lanka21.8031814912118911.21:81.30.490.010.010.010.010.010.01Sri Lanka
Afghanistan32.2261955117394327183017.91:5.60.090.020.020.020.030.030.27Afghanistan
Bangladesh168.3046302648855846133256.31:15.70.210.010.020.020.020.030.14Bangladesh
Maldives0.3751901113087631.11:95.20.40.00.00.00.010.010.58Maldives
Nepal29.6132352857133653.61:28.10.110.00.010.010.010.020.01Nepal
Southern Asia1915.43599605280811182953004996.11:16.40.50.030.040.040.040.050.26Southern Asia

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt