COVID-19 - Southern Europe - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 697782 456.5 6196 0.9% 0.89%
Active cases 204677 133.9 4472 2.23% 2.02%
Deaths 68093 44.5 43 0.06% 0.09%
Recovered 425012278.016810.4%0.23%
Deaths per infected 9.76%
Recovered per infected60.91%
Active per infected 29.33%
Deaths per recovered 16.02%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
12.04%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 77d 17h 77d 23h
Time to reach a million cases 40d 8h40d 11h
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 42 84
Active na 36 50
Deaths na 12 107
Recovered na 42 134
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Europe

Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Italy60.24324920412694351872013230.110.30.020.07>1yrstable413.721.158.4334.217.51:5.70.81
Spain47.1309855130979285001503761.443.00.040.048d 10hstable657.9278.160.5319.318.91:5.30.49
Portugal10.27752061124781743378400.29-0.390.030.42238d 11hstable506.6121.417.0368.24.61:21.70.73
Greece10.7255123353921013742.242.440.390.031d 8h179d 21h47.833.02.012.815.31:6.50.27
Slovenia2.094222318912519090.47-2.790.830.68146d 7h84d 1h106.29.06.091.26.51:15.30.86
Croatia4.076540456115546880.68-2.971.221.12102d 6h57d 4h132.613.83.8115.03.31:30.20.87
Serbia6.9642733226711621155641.10.871.080.063d 13h64d 15h392.5383.68.90.04.01:25.10.57
Albania2.8626016267318831552.22.62.491.0831d 20h28d 4h210.293.46.6110.26.01:16.80.52
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30113396597038470422.441.22.262.8228d 17h30d 22h405.8180.911.6213.35.51:18.30.53
Malta0.49494626796702.297.920.00.0930d 15h191.754.11.8135.71.31:74.60.71
North Macedonia2.07711399340251774800.92-0.780.721.5275d 23h96d 12h548.8163.824.9360.16.91:14.50.66
Montenegro0.622348012426021781.7-6.22.699.9641d 0h26d 3h559.1199.69.6349.92.81:36.40.63
Kosovo1.919688390830054803.672.067.183.1219d 5h9d 23h507.2204.615.7286.95.51:18.30.57
Southern Europe152.86697782204677680934250120.892.020.090.2377d 23hstable456.5133.944.5278.016.01:6.20.61

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Italy60.243249204126943518720132317.51:5.70.810.140.140.140.140.1415.79Italy
Spain47.13098551309792850015037618.91:5.30.490.090.10.10.10.116.35Spain
Portugal10.27752061124781743378404.61:21.70.730.030.030.030.030.044.58Portugal
Greece10.72551233539210137415.31:6.50.270.040.050.050.050.050.53Greece
Slovenia2.094222318912519096.51:15.30.860.060.060.060.060.061.61Slovenia
Croatia4.076540456115546883.31:30.20.870.030.030.030.030.031.03Croatia
Serbia6.9642733226711621155644.01:25.10.570.020.020.020.030.032.41Serbia
Albania2.8626016267318831556.01:16.80.520.030.030.030.040.041.78Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30113396597038470425.51:18.30.530.030.030.030.040.043.14Bosnia and Herzegovina
Malta0.49494626796701.31:74.60.710.010.010.010.010.010.49Malta
North Macedonia2.07711399340251774806.91:14.50.660.050.050.050.050.056.73North Macedonia
Montenegro0.622348012426021782.81:36.40.630.020.020.020.020.022.61Montenegro
Kosovo1.919688390830054805.51:18.30.570.030.030.040.040.044.25Kosovo
Southern Europe152.866977822046776809342501216.01:6.20.610.10.10.10.10.1112.04Southern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt