COVID-19 - Belgium - 20-08-04

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Belgium is included in the following groups: EU - Female Heads of State - Western Europe - Europe - UNR Western European and Others Group - WHO European Region
Belgium has a landborder to: France - Germany - Luxembourg - Netherlands

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 70648 613.0 334 0.48% 0.77%
Active cases 43157 374.5 291 0.68% 1.07%
Deaths 9852 85.5 2 0.02% 0.02%
Recovered 17639153.1410.23%0.1%
Deaths per infected 13.95%
Recovered per infected24.97%
Active per infected 61.09%
Deaths per recovered 55.85%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
23.1%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 146d 6h 90d 15h
Time to reach a million cases >1yr346d 14h
Time to saturate the populationstable >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 81
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 36 28 97
Active 19 9 75
Deaths 13 2 112
Recovered 58 60 140
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Belgium

France - Germany - Luxembourg - Netherlands

Belgium in its groups

EU - Female Heads of State - Western Europe - Europe - UNR Western European and Others Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt