COVID-19 - Central America - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	1232043	704.1	9042	0.74%	1.1%
Active cases	155902	89.1	1446	0.94%	-0.06%
Deaths	93943	53.7	456	0.49%	0.95%
Recovered	982198	561.4	7140	0.73%	1.13%

Deaths per infected	7.62%
Recovered per infected	79.72%
Active per infected	12.65%
Deaths per recovered	9.56%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	14.51%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	94d 2h	63d 4h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	52	60
Active	na	65	121
Deaths	na	17	37
Recovered	na	42	48
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Central America

Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Panama	4.219	118841	21405	2474	94962	0.61	0.14	0.33	0.56	114d 2h	211d 12h	2816.9	507.4	58.6	2250.9	2.6	1:38.3	0.8
Mexico	126.578	810020	39400	83497	687123	1.25	0.79	1.0	1.15	55d 23h	69d 13h	639.9	31.1	66.0	542.8	12.2	1:8.2	0.85
Costa Rica	5.058	86053	32671	1055	52327	1.68	-0.66	1.83	2.92	41d 15h	38d 3h	1701.3	645.9	20.9	1034.5	2.0	1:49.5	0.61
Honduras	9.158	82552	48324	2492	31736	0.72	0.09	0.45	1.19	96d 2h	154d 5h	901.4	527.7	27.2	346.5	7.8	1:12.7	0.38
Guatemala	16.604	96935	8236	3356	85343	0.63	0.45	0.33	0.55	111d 5h	212d 21h	583.8	49.6	20.2	514.0	3.9	1:25.4	0.88
El Salvador	6.486	29951	4075	881	24995	0.34	-0.45	0.32	0.39	205d 10h	215d 6h	461.8	62.8	13.6	385.4	3.5	1:28.4	0.83
Nicaragua	6.46	5264	886	153	4225	0.36	-11.61	0.26	9.01	190d 23h	262d 0h	81.5	13.7	2.4	65.4	3.6	1:27.6	0.8
Belize	0.41	2427	905	35	1487	2.64	3.1	3.36	1.63	26d 15h	20d 23h	592.0	220.7	8.5	362.7	2.4	1:42.6	0.61
Central America	174.97	1232043	155902	93943	982198	1.1	-0.06	0.95	1.13	63d 4h	73d 15h	704.1	89.1	53.7	561.4	9.6	1:10.5	0.8

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Panama	4.219	118841	21405	2474	94962	2.6	1:38.3	0.8	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	15.85	Panama
Mexico	126.578	810020	39400	83497	687123	12.2	1:8.2	0.85	0.1	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.11	17.83	Mexico
Costa Rica	5.058	86053	32671	1055	52327	2.0	1:49.5	0.61	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5.64	Costa Rica
Honduras	9.158	82552	48324	2492	31736	7.8	1:12.7	0.38	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	7.35	Honduras
Guatemala	16.604	96935	8236	3356	85343	3.9	1:25.4	0.88	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	5.46	Guatemala
El Salvador	6.486	29951	4075	881	24995	3.5	1:28.4	0.83	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	3.67	El Salvador
Nicaragua	6.46	5264	886	153	4225	3.6	1:27.6	0.8	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.64	Nicaragua
Belize	0.41	2427	905	35	1487	2.4	1:42.6	0.61	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.31	Belize
Central America	174.97	1232043	155902	93943	982198	9.6	1:10.5	0.8	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.08	14.51	Central America

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt