COVID-19 - Central America - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 132295 75.6 4867 3.82% 3.65%
Active cases 33721 19.3 615 1.86% 1.55%
Deaths 12572 7.2 1128 9.86% 2.51%
Recovered 8600249.231243.77%3.52%
Deaths per infected 9.5%
Recovered per infected65.01%
Active per infected 25.49%
Deaths per recovered 14.62%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 18d 11h 19d 8h
Time to reach a million cases 53d 23h56d 10h
Time to saturate the population191d 18h 200d 13h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 59 46
Active na 63 70
Deaths na 26 40
Recovered na 55 34
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Central America

Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Panama4.21914609473335795193.12-0.611.555.1822d 13h45d 1h346.3112.28.5225.63.81:26.70.65
Mexico126.5781012381682911729726803.650.922.483.4219d 8h28d 6h80.013.39.357.416.11:6.20.72
Costa Rica5.0581157462106852.522.880.00.8727d 20h22.
Honduras9.158569048392346173.683.292.811.6519d 3h24d 23h62.
Guatemala16.604576046881439294.583.736.534.9715d 11h10d 22h34.728.20.95.615.41:6.50.16
El Salvador6.486270514685111863. 2h21d 22h41.722.60.818.34.31:23.30.44
Nicaragua6.461118702463709.4619.666.290.07d 16h11d 8h17.310.90.75.712.41:8.00.33
Central America174.971322953372112572860023.651.552.513.5219d 8h27d 22h75.619.

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Costa Rica5.0581157462106851.51:68.50.590. Rica
El Salvador6.486270514685111864.31:23.30.440. Salvador
Central America174.9713229533721125728600214.61:6.80.650. America

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt