COVID-19 - Central America - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 678414 387.7 10370 1.55% 1.39%
Active cases 143437 82.0 3730 2.67% -0.88%
Deaths 56494 32.3 934 1.68% 0.96%
Recovered 478483273.557061.21%1.73%
Deaths per infected 8.33%
Recovered per infected70.53%
Active per infected 21.14%
Deaths per recovered 11.81%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
8.73%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 44d 23h 50d 6h
Time to reach a million cases 25d 4h28d 3h
Time to saturate the population360d 11h >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 48 64
Active na 50 121
Deaths na 17 58
Recovered na 44 50
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Central America

Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Panama4.21971418241861574456581.47-0.781.42.2547d 9h49d 21h1692.9573.337.31082.33.51:29.00.64
Mexico126.57846269046862505173653111.28-2.760.921.5654d 12h75d 10h365.537.039.9288.613.81:7.20.79
Costa Rica5.058210701383220070382.99-0.044.429.5923d 12h16d 0h416.6273.54.0139.12.81:35.20.33
Honduras9.1584575538084144662251.41.070.791.4549d 21h87d 18h499.6415.815.868.023.21:4.30.14
Guatemala16.60454339101502119420701.29-1.651.131.754d 5h61d 16h327.361.112.8253.45.01:19.80.77
El Salvador6.48619126937751392362.322.351.651.4130d 3h42d 9h294.9144.67.9142.45.51:18.00.48
Nicaragua6.46390286612329131.25-3.721.213.3855d 16h57d 18h60.413.41.945.14.21:23.70.75
Belize0.411148023217.0423.230.00.674d 9h27.819.50.57.86.21:16.00.28
Central America174.97678414143437564944784831.39-0.880.961.7350d 6h72d 16h387.782.032.3273.511.81:8.50.71

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Panama4.21971418241861574456583.51:29.00.640.020.020.020.030.0310.08Panama
Mexico126.578462690468625051736531113.81:7.20.790.110.120.120.130.1310.79Mexico
Costa Rica5.058210701383220070382.81:35.20.330.010.010.010.010.011.07Costa Rica
Honduras9.15845755380841446622523.21:4.30.140.030.030.030.040.044.27Honduras
Guatemala16.60454339101502119420705.01:19.80.770.040.040.040.050.053.45Guatemala
El Salvador6.48619126937751392365.51:18.00.480.030.030.030.030.042.14El Salvador
Nicaragua6.46390286612329134.21:23.70.750.030.030.030.030.040.51Nicaragua
Belize0.41114802326.21:16.00.280.020.040.040.040.040.13Belize
Central America174.976784141434375649447848311.81:8.50.710.080.090.090.10.18.73Central America

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt