Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama
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| Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though. | ||
| Last days rate | Last average rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Time to double cases | 18d 11h | 19d 8h |
| Time to reach a million cases | 53d 23h | 56d 10h |
| Time to saturate the population | 191d 18h | 200d 13h |
| A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview. | |||
| Total: | 189 | Population | na |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases | Cases per 100.000 | Average grow rate (5 days) | |
| Infected | na | 59 | 46 |
| Active | na | 63 | 70 |
| Deaths | na | 26 | 40 |
| Recovered | na | 55 | 34 |
| The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both! | |||
| Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Deaths | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | |
| absolute values | Percentage growthrate 5d | Time to double | Cases per 100.000 | % / ratio | ||||||||||||||
| Panama | 4.219 | 14609 | 4733 | 357 | 9519 | 3.12 | -0.61 | 1.55 | 5.18 | 22d 13h | 45d 1h | 346.3 | 112.2 | 8.5 | 225.6 | 3.8 | 1:26.7 | 0.65 |
| Mexico | 126.578 | 101238 | 16829 | 11729 | 72680 | 3.65 | 0.92 | 2.48 | 3.42 | 19d 8h | 28d 6h | 80.0 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 57.4 | 16.1 | 1:6.2 | 0.72 |
| Costa Rica | 5.058 | 1157 | 462 | 10 | 685 | 2.52 | 2.88 | 0.0 | 0.87 | 27d 20h | 22.9 | 9.1 | 0.2 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 1:68.5 | 0.59 | |
| Honduras | 9.158 | 5690 | 4839 | 234 | 617 | 3.68 | 3.29 | 2.81 | 1.65 | 19d 3h | 24d 23h | 62.1 | 52.8 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 37.9 | 1:2.6 | 0.11 |
| Guatemala | 16.604 | 5760 | 4688 | 143 | 929 | 4.58 | 3.73 | 6.53 | 4.97 | 15d 11h | 10d 22h | 34.7 | 28.2 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 15.4 | 1:6.5 | 0.16 |
| El Salvador | 6.486 | 2705 | 1468 | 51 | 1186 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.21 | 2.76 | 20d 2h | 21d 22h | 41.7 | 22.6 | 0.8 | 18.3 | 4.3 | 1:23.3 | 0.44 |
| Nicaragua | 6.46 | 1118 | 702 | 46 | 370 | 9.46 | 19.66 | 6.29 | 0.0 | 7d 16h | 11d 8h | 17.3 | 10.9 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 12.4 | 1:8.0 | 0.33 |
| Central America | 174.97 | 132295 | 33721 | 12572 | 86002 | 3.65 | 1.55 | 2.51 | 3.52 | 19d 8h | 27d 22h | 75.6 | 19.3 | 7.2 | 49.2 | 14.6 | 1:6.8 | 0.65 |
| Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | Deaths per infected ... days ago | Possible Total % | Country | |||||
| absolute values | % / ratio | 0d | 5d | 7d | 10d | 14d | |||||||||
| Panama | 4.219 | 14609 | 4733 | 357 | 9519 | 3.8 | 1:26.7 | 0.65 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 2.29 | Panama |
| Mexico | 126.578 | 101238 | 16829 | 11729 | 72680 | 16.1 | 1:6.2 | 0.72 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.2 | 2.5 | Mexico |
| Costa Rica | 5.058 | 1157 | 462 | 10 | 685 | 1.5 | 1:68.5 | 0.59 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | Costa Rica |
| Honduras | 9.158 | 5690 | 4839 | 234 | 617 | 37.9 | 1:2.6 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.69 | Honduras |
| Guatemala | 16.604 | 5760 | 4688 | 143 | 929 | 15.4 | 1:6.5 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.23 | Guatemala |
| El Salvador | 6.486 | 2705 | 1468 | 51 | 1186 | 4.3 | 1:23.3 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.21 | El Salvador |
| Nicaragua | 6.46 | 1118 | 702 | 46 | 370 | 12.4 | 1:8.0 | 0.33 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.19 | Nicaragua |
| Central America | 174.97 | 132295 | 33721 | 12572 | 86002 | 14.6 | 1:6.8 | 0.65 | 0.1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1.94 | Central America |
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A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected
county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first
reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to
the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally
other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are
more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number.
Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get
other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results. Links (German): Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt |