COVID-19 - Central America - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 1232043 704.1 9042 0.74% 1.1%
Active cases 155902 89.1 1446 0.94% -0.06%
Deaths 93943 53.7 456 0.49% 0.95%
Recovered 982198561.471400.73%1.13%
Deaths per infected 7.62%
Recovered per infected79.72%
Active per infected 12.65%
Deaths per recovered 9.56%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 94d 2h 63d 4h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 52 60
Active na 65 121
Deaths na 17 37
Recovered na 42 48
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Central America

Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Panama4.219118841214052474949620.610.140.330.56114d 2h211d 12h2816.9507.458.62250.92.61:38.30.8
Mexico126.57881002039400834976871231.250.791.01.1555d 23h69d 13h639.931.166.0542.812.21:8.20.85
Costa Rica5.05886053326711055523271.68-0.661.832.9241d 15h38d 3h1701.3645.920.91034.52.01:49.50.61
Honduras9.15882552483242492317360.720.090.451.1996d 2h154d 5h901.4527.727.2346.57.81:12.70.38
Guatemala16.6049693582363356853430.630.450.330.55111d 5h212d 21h583.849.620.2514.03.91:25.40.88
El Salvador6.486299514075881249950.34-0.450.320.39205d 10h215d 6h461.862.813.6385.43.51:28.40.83
Nicaragua6.46526488615342250.36-11.610.269.01190d 23h262d 0h81.513.72.465.43.61:27.60.8
Belize0.4124279053514872.643.13.361.6326d 15h20d 23h592.0220.78.5362.72.41:42.60.61
Central America174.971232043155902939439821981.1-0.060.951.1363d 4h73d 15h704.189.153.7561.49.61:10.50.8

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Costa Rica5.05886053326711055523272.01:49.50.610. Rica
El Salvador6.486299514075881249953.51:28.40.830. Salvador
Central America174.971232043155902939439821989.61: America

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt