Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama
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| Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though. | ||
| Last days rate | Last average rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Time to double cases | 266d 10h | 97d 8h |
| Time to reach a million cases | ||
| Time to saturate the population | stable | >1yr |
| A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview. | |||
| Total: | 192 | Population | na |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases | Cases per 100.000 | Average grow rate (5 days) | |
| Infected | na | 78 | 88 |
| Active | na | 64 | 72 |
| Deaths | na | 23 | 74 |
| Recovered | na | 65 | 74 |
| The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both! | |||
| Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Infected | Deaths | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | |
| absolute values | Percentage growthrate 5d | Time to double | Cases per 100.000 | % / ratio | ||||||||||||||
| Panama | 4.219 | 161744 | 16668 | 3030 | 142046 | 0.88 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.73 | 78d 18h | 169d 15h | 3833.9 | 395.1 | 71.8 | 3367.0 | 2.1 | 1:46.9 | 0.88 |
| Mexico | 126.578 | 1078594 | 170771 | 104242 | 803581 | 0.7 | 1.18 | 0.5 | 0.62 | 99d 23h | 138d 21h | 852.1 | 134.9 | 82.4 | 634.9 | 13.0 | 1:7.7 | 0.74 |
| Costa Rica | 5.058 | 137093 | 50412 | 1690 | 84991 | 1.16 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.97 | 60d 1h | 79d 23h | 2710.4 | 996.7 | 33.4 | 1680.3 | 2.0 | 1:50.3 | 0.62 |
| Honduras | 9.158 | 107134 | 56659 | 2899 | 47576 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 135d 17h | 284d 5h | 1169.8 | 618.7 | 31.7 | 519.5 | 6.1 | 1:16.4 | 0.44 |
| Guatemala | 16.604 | 121132 | 7372 | 4141 | 109619 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 165d 22h | 249d 8h | 729.5 | 44.4 | 24.9 | 660.2 | 3.8 | 1:26.5 | 0.91 |
| El Salvador | 6.486 | 38405 | 2225 | 1102 | 35078 | 0.45 | 0.01 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 155d 14h | 163d 9h | 592.1 | 34.3 | 17.0 | 540.8 | 3.1 | 1:31.8 | 0.91 |
| Nicaragua | 6.46 | 5784 | 1399 | 160 | 4225 | 0.21 | 0.87 | 0.13 | 0.0 | 336d 15h | >1yr | 89.5 | 21.7 | 2.5 | 65.4 | 3.8 | 1:26.4 | 0.73 |
| Belize | 0.41 | 5587 | 2390 | 141 | 3056 | 1.51 | 1.22 | 2.47 | 1.23 | 46d 4h | 28d 8h | 1362.7 | 582.9 | 34.4 | 745.4 | 4.6 | 1:21.7 | 0.55 |
| Central America | 174.97 | 1655473 | 307896 | 117405 | 1230172 | 0.71 | 0.93 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 97d 8h | 141d 21h | 946.1 | 176.0 | 67.1 | 703.1 | 9.5 | 1:10.5 | 0.74 |
| Click top row to sort: | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Pop (mio) | Infected | Active | Deaths | Recovered | Deaths per Recovered | Recovered per infected | Deaths per infected ... days ago | Possible Total % | Country | |||||
| absolute values | % / ratio | 0d | 5d | 7d | 10d | 14d | |||||||||
| Panama | 4.219 | 161744 | 16668 | 3030 | 142046 | 2.1 | 1:46.9 | 0.88 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 19.41 | Panama |
| Mexico | 126.578 | 1078594 | 170771 | 104242 | 803581 | 13.0 | 1:7.7 | 0.74 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 22.26 | Mexico |
| Costa Rica | 5.058 | 137093 | 50412 | 1690 | 84991 | 2.0 | 1:50.3 | 0.62 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9.03 | Costa Rica |
| Honduras | 9.158 | 107134 | 56659 | 2899 | 47576 | 6.1 | 1:16.4 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 8.56 | Honduras |
| Guatemala | 16.604 | 121132 | 7372 | 4141 | 109619 | 3.8 | 1:26.5 | 0.91 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 6.74 | Guatemala |
| El Salvador | 6.486 | 38405 | 2225 | 1102 | 35078 | 3.1 | 1:31.8 | 0.91 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 4.59 | El Salvador |
| Nicaragua | 6.46 | 5784 | 1399 | 160 | 4225 | 3.8 | 1:26.4 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.67 | Nicaragua |
| Belize | 0.41 | 5587 | 2390 | 141 | 3056 | 4.6 | 1:21.7 | 0.55 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 9.29 | Belize |
| Central America | 174.97 | 1655473 | 307896 | 117405 | 1230172 | 9.5 | 1:10.5 | 0.74 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 18.14 | Central America |
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A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected
county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first
reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to
the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally
other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are
more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number.
Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get
other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results. Links (German): Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt |