COVID-19 - Central America - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Central America is a Group with the following members:
Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	678414	387.7	10370	1.55%	1.39%
Active cases	143437	82.0	3730	2.67%	-0.88%
Deaths	56494	32.3	934	1.68%	0.96%
Recovered	478483	273.5	5706	1.21%	1.73%

Deaths per infected	8.33%
Recovered per infected	70.53%
Active per infected	21.14%
Deaths per recovered	11.81%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	8.73%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	44d 23h	50d 6h
Time to reach a million cases	25d 4h	28d 3h
Time to saturate the population	360d 11h	>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	48	64
Active	na	50	121
Deaths	na	17	58
Recovered	na	44	50
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Central America

Belize - Costa Rica - El Salvador - Guatemala - Honduras - Mexico - Nicaragua - Panama

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Panama	4.219	71418	24186	1574	45658	1.47	-0.78	1.4	2.25	47d 9h	49d 21h	1692.9	573.3	37.3	1082.3	3.5	1:29.0	0.64
Mexico	126.578	462690	46862	50517	365311	1.28	-2.76	0.92	1.56	54d 12h	75d 10h	365.5	37.0	39.9	288.6	13.8	1:7.2	0.79
Costa Rica	5.058	21070	13832	200	7038	2.99	-0.04	4.42	9.59	23d 12h	16d 0h	416.6	273.5	4.0	139.1	2.8	1:35.2	0.33
Honduras	9.158	45755	38084	1446	6225	1.4	1.07	0.79	1.45	49d 21h	87d 18h	499.6	415.8	15.8	68.0	23.2	1:4.3	0.14
Guatemala	16.604	54339	10150	2119	42070	1.29	-1.65	1.13	1.7	54d 5h	61d 16h	327.3	61.1	12.8	253.4	5.0	1:19.8	0.77
El Salvador	6.486	19126	9377	513	9236	2.32	2.35	1.65	1.41	30d 3h	42d 9h	294.9	144.6	7.9	142.4	5.5	1:18.0	0.48
Nicaragua	6.46	3902	866	123	2913	1.25	-3.72	1.21	3.38	55d 16h	57d 18h	60.4	13.4	1.9	45.1	4.2	1:23.7	0.75
Belize	0.41	114	80	2	32	17.04	23.23	0.0	0.67	4d 9h		27.8	19.5	0.5	7.8	6.2	1:16.0	0.28
Central America	174.97	678414	143437	56494	478483	1.39	-0.88	0.96	1.73	50d 6h	72d 16h	387.7	82.0	32.3	273.5	11.8	1:8.5	0.71

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Panama	4.219	71418	24186	1574	45658	3.5	1:29.0	0.64	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	10.08	Panama
Mexico	126.578	462690	46862	50517	365311	13.8	1:7.2	0.79	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.13	0.13	10.79	Mexico
Costa Rica	5.058	21070	13832	200	7038	2.8	1:35.2	0.33	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.07	Costa Rica
Honduras	9.158	45755	38084	1446	6225	23.2	1:4.3	0.14	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	4.27	Honduras
Guatemala	16.604	54339	10150	2119	42070	5.0	1:19.8	0.77	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	3.45	Guatemala
El Salvador	6.486	19126	9377	513	9236	5.5	1:18.0	0.48	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	2.14	El Salvador
Nicaragua	6.46	3902	866	123	2913	4.2	1:23.7	0.75	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.51	Nicaragua
Belize	0.41	114	80	2	32	6.2	1:16.0	0.28	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.13	Belize
Central America	174.97	678414	143437	56494	478483	11.8	1:8.5	0.71	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.1	0.1	8.73	Central America

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt