COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	1189065	408.0	9784	0.83%	0.79%
Active cases	274510	94.2	-1055	-0.38%	0.42%
Deaths	23627	8.1	232	0.99%	0.68%
Recovered	890928	305.7	10607	1.2%	0.68%

Deaths per infected	1.99%
Recovered per infected	74.93%
Active per infected	23.09%
Deaths per recovered	2.65%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	2.19%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	83d 21h	88d 12h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	46	94
Active	na	45	79
Deaths	na	47	76
Recovered	na	39	91
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	17731	5021	390	12320	1.21	2.05	0.26	0.55	57d 18h	264d 20h	165.8	47.0	3.6	115.2	3.2	1:31.5	0.69
Poland	38.386	49515	12099	1774	35642	1.33	2.71	0.4	0.55	52d 9h	171d 20h	129.0	31.5	4.6	92.9	5.0	1:20.1	0.72
Romania	19.405	57895	26337	2566	28992	2.13	2.6	1.17	0.89	32d 22h	59d 15h	298.3	135.7	13.2	149.4	8.8	1:11.3	0.5
Russia	146.745	870187	180539	14579	675069	0.62	-0.19	0.61	0.69	112d 22h	114d 10h	593.0	123.0	9.9	460.0	2.2	1:46.3	0.78
Slovakia	5.456	2480	627	29	1824	1.2	1.59	0.0	0.4	58d 3h		45.5	11.5	0.5	33.4	1.6	1:62.9	0.74
Bulgaria	7.0	13014	5205	435	7374	1.92	0.34	1.96	2.28	36d 12h	35d 17h	185.9	74.4	6.2	105.3	5.9	1:16.9	0.57
Hungary	9.773	4597	534	600	3463	0.31	-1.11	0.07	0.4	222d 12h	stable	47.0	5.5	6.1	35.4	17.3	1:5.8	0.75
Belarus	9.413	68503	4167	580	63756	0.16	-1.4	0.49	0.23	>1yr	141d 0h	727.7	44.3	6.2	677.3	0.9	1:109.9	0.93
Moldova	2.682	26628	7124	828	18676	1.18	1.4	0.87	0.67	59d 2h	79d 14h	993.0	265.7	30.9	696.4	4.4	1:22.6	0.7
Ukraine	41.902	78515	32857	1846	43812	1.58	1.42	0.91	1.1	44d 7h	76d 16h	187.4	78.4	4.4	104.6	4.2	1:23.8	0.56
Eastern Europe	291.46	1189065	274510	23627	890928	0.79	0.42	0.68	0.68	88d 12h	101d 16h	408.0	94.2	8.1	305.7	2.6	1:37.7	0.75

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	17731	5021	390	12320	3.2	1:31.5	0.69	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.99	Czechia
Poland	38.386	49515	12099	1774	35642	5.0	1:20.1	0.72	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.25	Poland
Romania	19.405	57895	26337	2566	28992	8.8	1:11.3	0.5	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	3.57	Romania
Russia	146.745	870187	180539	14579	675069	2.2	1:46.3	0.78	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.69	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	2480	627	29	1824	1.6	1:62.9	0.74	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.14	Slovakia
Bulgaria	7.0	13014	5205	435	7374	5.9	1:16.9	0.57	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.68	Bulgaria
Hungary	9.773	4597	534	600	3463	17.3	1:5.8	0.75	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.14	1.66	Hungary
Belarus	9.413	68503	4167	580	63756	0.9	1:109.9	0.93	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.67	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	26628	7124	828	18676	4.4	1:22.6	0.7	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	8.34	Moldova
Ukraine	41.902	78515	32857	1846	43812	4.2	1:23.8	0.56	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.19	Ukraine
Eastern Europe	291.46	1189065	274510	23627	890928	2.6	1:37.7	0.75	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.19	Eastern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt