COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	2116681	726.2	38851	1.87%	1.53%
Active cases	560028	192.1	22582	4.2%	2.48%
Deaths	40343	13.8	475	1.19%	0.94%
Recovered	1516310	520.2	15794	1.05%	0.72%

Deaths per infected	1.91%
Recovered per infected	71.64%
Active per infected	26.46%
Deaths per recovered	2.66%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	3.74%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	37d 9h	45d 13h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	265d 20h	323d 14h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	51	43
Active	na	35	54
Deaths	na	49	37
Recovered	na	45	67
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	109374	55296	905	53173	5.83	5.42	3.65	3.02	12d 5h	19d 8h	1022.8	517.1	8.5	497.2	1.7	1:58.8	0.49
Poland	38.386	116338	35544	2919	77875	3.06	5.75	1.75	0.94	22d 23h	40d 1h	303.1	92.6	7.6	202.9	3.8	1:26.7	0.67
Romania	19.405	148886	28795	5299	114792	1.84	3.76	0.96	0.91	37d 23h	72d 15h	767.2	148.4	27.3	591.6	4.6	1:21.6	0.77
Russia	146.745	1265572	238236	22137	1005199	0.92	1.93	0.63	0.46	75d 20h	110d 3h	862.4	162.3	15.1	685.0	2.2	1:45.5	0.79
Slovakia	5.456	16910	11401	57	5452	5.2	4.62	0.73	2.1	13d 16h	95d 15h	309.9	208.9	1.0	99.9	1.1	1:95.2	0.32
Bulgaria	7.0	23871	7271	887	15713	2.03	3.56	0.84	0.72	34d 10h	82d 20h	341.0	103.9	12.7	224.5	5.7	1:17.7	0.66
Hungary	9.773	35222	25107	913	9202	2.87	1.47	1.79	4.29	24d 11h	39d 1h	360.4	256.9	9.3	94.2	9.9	1:10.1	0.26
Belarus	9.413	82471	5043	885	76543	0.65	5.63	0.67	0.25	107d 8h	103d 7h	876.1	53.6	9.4	813.1	1.2	1:86.2	0.93
Moldova	2.682	60833	15902	1442	43489	1.46	1.68	0.84	0.98	47d 18h	83d 5h	2268.4	593.0	53.8	1621.7	3.3	1:30.1	0.71
Ukraine	41.902	257204	137433	4899	114872	2.05	1.55	1.35	1.61	34d 4h	51d 12h	613.8	328.0	11.7	274.1	4.3	1:23.5	0.45
Eastern Europe	291.46	2116681	560028	40343	1516310	1.53	2.48	0.94	0.72	45d 13h	74d 6h	726.2	192.1	13.8	520.2	2.7	1:37.6	0.72

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	109374	55296	905	53173	1.7	1:58.8	0.49	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.29	Czechia
Poland	38.386	116338	35544	2919	77875	3.8	1:26.7	0.67	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	2.06	Poland
Romania	19.405	148886	28795	5299	114792	4.6	1:21.6	0.77	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	7.38	Romania
Russia	146.745	1265572	238236	22137	1005199	2.2	1:45.5	0.79	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	4.08	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	16910	11401	57	5452	1.1	1:95.2	0.32	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.01	0.01	0.28	Slovakia
Bulgaria	7.0	23871	7271	887	15713	5.7	1:17.7	0.66	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	3.42	Bulgaria
Hungary	9.773	35222	25107	913	9202	9.9	1:10.1	0.26	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	2.52	Hungary
Belarus	9.413	82471	5043	885	76543	1.2	1:86.2	0.93	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.54	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	60833	15902	1442	43489	3.3	1:30.1	0.71	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	14.53	Moldova
Ukraine	41.902	257204	137433	4899	114872	4.3	1:23.5	0.45	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	3.16	Ukraine
Eastern Europe	291.46	2116681	560028	40343	1516310	2.7	1:37.6	0.72	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	3.74	Eastern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt