COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 5518462 1893.4 88464 1.63% 1.59%
Active cases 1753965 601.8 22936 1.32% 0.32%
Deaths 97666 33.5 1964 2.05% 1.56%
Recovered 36668311258.1635641.76%1.73%
Deaths per infected 1.77%
Recovered per infected66.45%
Active per infected 31.78%
Deaths per recovered 2.66%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
9.06%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 42d 21h 44d 1h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population245d 11h 252d 1h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 49 45
Active na 39 103
Deaths na 41 27
Recovered na 40 35
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.6945159848299179674250260.95-3.641.571.6573d 14h44d 9h4825.0776.174.53974.51.91:53.50.82
Poland38.386958416425633161475166362.160.342.733.1632d 9h25d 17h2496.81108.842.11345.93.11:31.90.54
Romania19.405457848120307108843266571.810.31.291.8638d 16h53d 23h2359.4620.056.11683.33.31:30.00.71
Russia146.74521966914608983817516976181.180.321.011.159d 5h68d 18h1496.9314.126.01156.82.21:44.40.77
Slovakia5.45610310643050771592851.39-2.332.234.2350d 5h31d 10h1889.6789.014.11086.51.31:76.90.57
Bulgaria7.0139955895353680467402.821.384.174.2324d 23h16d 22h1999.41279.152.6667.77.91:12.70.33
Hungary9.7731984401419504364521262.591.572.173.0527d 1h32d 7h2030.51452.544.7533.48.41:11.90.26
Belarus9.4131316332034511361101521.21.10.580.9358d 0h120d 8h1398.4216.112.11170.21.01:97.10.84
Moldova2.682104140100932250917971.24-7.890.732.6456d 10h94d 17h3883.4376.483.93423.12.51:40.80.88
Ukraine41.902712249359163122923407942.091.231.382.0533d 11h50d 14h1699.8857.129.3813.33.61:27.70.48
Eastern Europe291.46551846217539659766636668311.590.321.561.7344d 1h44d 18h1893.4601.833.51258.12.71:37.60.66

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Czechia10.6945159848299179674250261.91:53.50.820.020.020.020.020.0220.14Czechia
Poland38.386958416425633161475166363.11:31.90.540.020.020.020.020.0211.37Poland
Romania19.405457848120307108843266573.31:30.00.710.020.030.030.030.0315.16Romania
Russia146.74521966914608983817516976182.21:44.40.770.020.020.020.020.027.03Russia
Slovakia5.45610310643050771592851.31:76.90.570.010.010.010.010.013.82Slovakia
Bulgaria7.0139955895353680467407.91:12.70.330.030.030.030.030.0414.21Bulgaria
Hungary9.7731984401419504364521268.41:11.90.260.020.020.030.030.0312.07Hungary
Belarus9.4131316332034511361101521.01:97.10.840.010.010.010.010.013.26Belarus
Moldova2.682104140100932250917972.51:40.80.880.020.020.020.020.0322.68Moldova
Ukraine41.902712249359163122923407943.61:27.70.480.020.020.020.020.027.93Ukraine
Eastern Europe291.46551846217539659766636668312.71:37.60.660.020.020.020.020.029.06Eastern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt