COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 1189065 408.0 9784 0.83% 0.79%
Active cases 274510 94.2 -1055 -0.38% 0.42%
Deaths 23627 8.1 232 0.99% 0.68%
Recovered 890928305.7106071.2%0.68%
Deaths per infected 1.99%
Recovered per infected74.93%
Active per infected 23.09%
Deaths per recovered 2.65%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
2.19%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 83d 21h 88d 12h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 46 94
Active na 45 79
Deaths na 47 76
Recovered na 39 91
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.694177315021390123201.212.050.260.5557d 18h264d 20h165.847.03.6115.23.21:31.50.69
Poland38.38649515120991774356421.332.710.40.5552d 9h171d 20h129.031.54.692.95.01:20.10.72
Romania19.40557895263372566289922.132.61.170.8932d 22h59d 15h298.3135.713.2149.48.81:11.30.5
Russia146.745870187180539145796750690.62-0.190.610.69112d 22h114d 10h593.0123.09.9460.02.21:46.30.78
Slovakia5.45624806272918241.21.590.00.458d 3h45.511.50.533.41.61:62.90.74
Bulgaria7.013014520543573741.920.341.962.2836d 12h35d 17h185.974.46.2105.35.91:16.90.57
Hungary9.773459753460034630.31-1.110.070.4222d 12hstable47.05.56.135.417.31:5.80.75
Belarus9.413685034167580637560.16-1.40.490.23>1yr141d 0h727.744.36.2677.30.91:109.90.93
Moldova2.682266287124828186761.181.40.870.6759d 2h79d 14h993.0265.730.9696.44.41:22.60.7
Ukraine41.90278515328571846438121.581.420.911.144d 7h76d 16h187.478.44.4104.64.21:23.80.56
Eastern Europe291.461189065274510236278909280.790.420.680.6888d 12h101d 16h408.094.28.1305.72.61:37.70.75

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Czechia10.694177315021390123203.21:31.50.690.020.020.020.020.030.99Czechia
Poland38.38649515120991774356425.01:20.10.720.040.040.040.040.041.25Poland
Romania19.40557895263372566289928.81:11.30.50.040.050.050.050.063.57Romania
Russia146.745870187180539145796750692.21:46.30.780.020.020.020.020.022.69Russia
Slovakia5.45624806272918241.61:62.90.740.010.010.010.010.010.14Slovakia
Bulgaria7.013014520543573745.91:16.90.570.030.040.040.040.041.68Bulgaria
Hungary9.7734597534600346317.31:5.80.750.130.130.130.130.141.66Hungary
Belarus9.413685034167580637560.91:109.90.930.010.010.010.010.011.67Belarus
Moldova2.682266287124828186764.41:22.60.70.030.030.030.040.048.34Moldova
Ukraine41.90278515328571846438124.21:23.80.560.020.030.030.030.031.19Ukraine
Eastern Europe291.461189065274510236278909282.61:37.70.750.020.020.020.020.022.19Eastern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt