COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	5518462	1893.4	88464	1.63%	1.59%
Active cases	1753965	601.8	22936	1.32%	0.32%
Deaths	97666	33.5	1964	2.05%	1.56%
Recovered	3666831	1258.1	63564	1.76%	1.73%

Deaths per infected	1.77%
Recovered per infected	66.45%
Active per infected	31.78%
Deaths per recovered	2.66%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	9.06%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	42d 21h	44d 1h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	245d 11h	252d 1h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	192	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	49	45
Active	na	39	103
Deaths	na	41	27
Recovered	na	40	35
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	515984	82991	7967	425026	0.95	-3.64	1.57	1.65	73d 14h	44d 9h	4825.0	776.1	74.5	3974.5	1.9	1:53.5	0.82
Poland	38.386	958416	425633	16147	516636	2.16	0.34	2.73	3.16	32d 9h	25d 17h	2496.8	1108.8	42.1	1345.9	3.1	1:31.9	0.54
Romania	19.405	457848	120307	10884	326657	1.81	0.3	1.29	1.86	38d 16h	53d 23h	2359.4	620.0	56.1	1683.3	3.3	1:30.0	0.71
Russia	146.745	2196691	460898	38175	1697618	1.18	0.32	1.01	1.1	59d 5h	68d 18h	1496.9	314.1	26.0	1156.8	2.2	1:44.4	0.77
Slovakia	5.456	103106	43050	771	59285	1.39	-2.33	2.23	4.23	50d 5h	31d 10h	1889.6	789.0	14.1	1086.5	1.3	1:76.9	0.57
Bulgaria	7.0	139955	89535	3680	46740	2.82	1.38	4.17	4.23	24d 23h	16d 22h	1999.4	1279.1	52.6	667.7	7.9	1:12.7	0.33
Hungary	9.773	198440	141950	4364	52126	2.59	1.57	2.17	3.05	27d 1h	32d 7h	2030.5	1452.5	44.7	533.4	8.4	1:11.9	0.26
Belarus	9.413	131633	20345	1136	110152	1.2	1.1	0.58	0.93	58d 0h	120d 8h	1398.4	216.1	12.1	1170.2	1.0	1:97.1	0.84
Moldova	2.682	104140	10093	2250	91797	1.24	-7.89	0.73	2.64	56d 10h	94d 17h	3883.4	376.4	83.9	3423.1	2.5	1:40.8	0.88
Ukraine	41.902	712249	359163	12292	340794	2.09	1.23	1.38	2.05	33d 11h	50d 14h	1699.8	857.1	29.3	813.3	3.6	1:27.7	0.48
Eastern Europe	291.46	5518462	1753965	97666	3666831	1.59	0.32	1.56	1.73	44d 1h	44d 18h	1893.4	601.8	33.5	1258.1	2.7	1:37.6	0.66

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	515984	82991	7967	425026	1.9	1:53.5	0.82	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	20.14	Czechia
Poland	38.386	958416	425633	16147	516636	3.1	1:31.9	0.54	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	11.37	Poland
Romania	19.405	457848	120307	10884	326657	3.3	1:30.0	0.71	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	15.16	Romania
Russia	146.745	2196691	460898	38175	1697618	2.2	1:44.4	0.77	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	7.03	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	103106	43050	771	59285	1.3	1:76.9	0.57	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3.82	Slovakia
Bulgaria	7.0	139955	89535	3680	46740	7.9	1:12.7	0.33	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	14.21	Bulgaria
Hungary	9.773	198440	141950	4364	52126	8.4	1:11.9	0.26	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	12.07	Hungary
Belarus	9.413	131633	20345	1136	110152	1.0	1:97.1	0.84	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3.26	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	104140	10093	2250	91797	2.5	1:40.8	0.88	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	22.68	Moldova
Ukraine	41.902	712249	359163	12292	340794	3.6	1:27.7	0.48	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	7.93	Ukraine
Eastern Europe	291.46	5518462	1753965	97666	3666831	2.7	1:37.6	0.66	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	9.06	Eastern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt