COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 572821 196.5 10680 1.9% 2.02%
Active cases 294104 100.9 -727 -0.25% 0.68%
Deaths 9952 3.4 231 2.38% 1.87%
Recovered 26876592.2111764.34%2.83%
Deaths per infected 1.74%
Recovered per infected46.92%
Active per infected 51.34%
Deaths per recovered 3.7%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.92%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 36d 19h 34d 15h
Time to reach a million cases 29d 14h27d 20h
Time to saturate the population331d 3h 311d 9h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 40 78
Active na 26 89
Deaths na 43 47
Recovered na 45 53
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.6949438236432567490.52-0.180.250.57133d 9h277d 19h88.322.13.063.14.81:20.70.72
Poland38.38624687115581115120141.290.290.771.8754d 1h90d 8h64.330.12.931.39.31:10.80.49
Romania19.4051966945731296138000.71-0.830.631.0797d 11h109d 18h101.423.66.771.19.41:10.60.7
Russia146.74543171523094852081955592.180.672.853.2432d 4h24d 16h294.2157.43.5133.32.71:37.60.45
Slovakia5.45615251222813750.07-4.460.00.5stable27.92.20.525.22.01:49.00.9
Bulgaria7.02560120814612060.6-0.941.162.04116d 12h60d 6h36.617.32.117.212.11:8.30.47
Hungary9.7733931120753421900.46-1.060.571.33149d 13h120d 21h40.212.45.522.424.41:4.10.56
Belarus9.4134511624697248201712.051.41.652.034d 3h42d 10h479.3262.42.6214.31.21:81.30.45
Moldova2.6828795362231048632.181.021.292.0732d 2h53d 23h328.0135.111.6181.36.41:15.70.55
Ukraine41.9022538513805742108382.160.761.553.2232d 8h45d 4h60.632.91.825.96.81:14.60.43
Eastern Europe291.4657282129410499522687652.020.681.872.8334d 15h37d 11h196.5100.93.492.23.71:27.00.47

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Czechia10.6949438236432567494.81:20.70.720.030.040.040.040.040.82Czechia
Poland38.38624687115581115120149.31:10.80.490.050.050.050.050.060.79Poland
Romania19.4051966945731296138009.41:10.60.70.070.070.070.070.071.81Romania
Russia146.74543171523094852081955592.71:37.60.450.010.010.010.010.020.96Russia
Slovakia5.45615251222813752.01:49.00.90.020.020.020.020.020.14Slovakia
Bulgaria7.025601208146120612.11:8.30.470.060.060.060.060.060.56Bulgaria
Hungary9.77339311207534219024.41:4.10.560.140.140.140.140.151.48Hungary
Belarus9.4134511624697248201711.21:81.30.450.010.010.010.010.010.71Belarus
Moldova2.6828795362231048636.41:15.70.550.040.040.040.040.053.12Moldova
Ukraine41.9022538513805742108386.81:14.60.430.030.030.030.030.040.48Ukraine
Eastern Europe291.4657282129410499522687653.71:27.00.470.020.020.020.020.020.92Eastern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt