COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 2116681 726.2 38851 1.87% 1.53%
Active cases 560028 192.1 22582 4.2% 2.48%
Deaths 40343 13.8 475 1.19% 0.94%
Recovered 1516310520.2157941.05%0.72%
Deaths per infected 1.91%
Recovered per infected71.64%
Active per infected 26.46%
Deaths per recovered 2.66%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 37d 9h 45d 13h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population265d 20h 323d 14h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 51 43
Active na 35 54
Deaths na 49 37
Recovered na 45 67
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.69410937455296905531735.835.423.653.0212d 5h19d 8h1022.8517.18.5497.21.71:58.80.49
Poland38.386116338355442919778753.065.751.750.9422d 23h40d 1h303.192.67.6202.93.81:26.70.67
Romania19.4051488862879552991147921.843.760.960.9137d 23h72d 15h767.2148.427.3591.64.61:21.60.77
Russia146.74512655722382362213710051990.921.930.630.4675d 20h110d 3h862.4162.315.1685.02.21:45.50.79
Slovakia5.45616910114015754525.24.620.732.113d 16h95d 15h309.9208.
Bulgaria7.0238717271887157132.033.560.840.7234d 10h82d 20h341.0103.912.7224.55.71:17.70.66
Hungary9.773352222510791392022.871.471.794.2924d 11h39d 1h360.4256.99.394.29.91:10.10.26
Belarus9.413824715043885765430.655.630.670.25107d 8h103d 7h876.153.69.4813.11.21:86.20.93
Moldova2.68260833159021442434891.461.680.840.9847d 18h83d 5h2268.4593.053.81621.73.31:30.10.71
Ukraine41.90225720413743348991148722.051.551.351.6134d 4h51d 12h613.8328.011.7274.14.31:23.50.45
Eastern Europe291.4621166815600284034315163101.532.480.940.7245d 13h74d 6h726.2192.113.8520.22.71:37.60.72

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Eastern Europe291.4621166815600284034315163102.71:37.60.720. Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt