COVID-19 - Eastern Europe - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Eastern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	572821	196.5	10680	1.9%	2.02%
Active cases	294104	100.9	-727	-0.25%	0.68%
Deaths	9952	3.4	231	2.38%	1.87%
Recovered	268765	92.2	11176	4.34%	2.83%

Deaths per infected	1.74%
Recovered per infected	46.92%
Active per infected	51.34%
Deaths per recovered	3.7%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.92%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	36d 19h	34d 15h
Time to reach a million cases	29d 14h	27d 20h
Time to saturate the population	331d 3h	311d 9h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	40	78
Active	na	26	89
Deaths	na	43	47
Recovered	na	45	53
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Eastern Europe

Belarus - Bulgaria - Czechia - Hungary - Moldova - Poland - Romania - Russia - Slovakia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	9438	2364	325	6749	0.52	-0.18	0.25	0.57	133d 9h	277d 19h	88.3	22.1	3.0	63.1	4.8	1:20.7	0.72
Poland	38.386	24687	11558	1115	12014	1.29	0.29	0.77	1.87	54d 1h	90d 8h	64.3	30.1	2.9	31.3	9.3	1:10.8	0.49
Romania	19.405	19669	4573	1296	13800	0.71	-0.83	0.63	1.07	97d 11h	109d 18h	101.4	23.6	6.7	71.1	9.4	1:10.6	0.7
Russia	146.745	431715	230948	5208	195559	2.18	0.67	2.85	3.24	32d 4h	24d 16h	294.2	157.4	3.5	133.3	2.7	1:37.6	0.45
Slovakia	5.456	1525	122	28	1375	0.07	-4.46	0.0	0.5	stable		27.9	2.2	0.5	25.2	2.0	1:49.0	0.9
Bulgaria	7.0	2560	1208	146	1206	0.6	-0.94	1.16	2.04	116d 12h	60d 6h	36.6	17.3	2.1	17.2	12.1	1:8.3	0.47
Hungary	9.773	3931	1207	534	2190	0.46	-1.06	0.57	1.33	149d 13h	120d 21h	40.2	12.4	5.5	22.4	24.4	1:4.1	0.56
Belarus	9.413	45116	24697	248	20171	2.05	1.4	1.65	2.0	34d 3h	42d 10h	479.3	262.4	2.6	214.3	1.2	1:81.3	0.45
Moldova	2.682	8795	3622	310	4863	2.18	1.02	1.29	2.07	32d 2h	53d 23h	328.0	135.1	11.6	181.3	6.4	1:15.7	0.55
Ukraine	41.902	25385	13805	742	10838	2.16	0.76	1.55	3.22	32d 8h	45d 4h	60.6	32.9	1.8	25.9	6.8	1:14.6	0.43
Eastern Europe	291.46	572821	294104	9952	268765	2.02	0.68	1.87	2.83	34d 15h	37d 11h	196.5	100.9	3.4	92.2	3.7	1:27.0	0.47

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	9438	2364	325	6749	4.8	1:20.7	0.72	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.82	Czechia
Poland	38.386	24687	11558	1115	12014	9.3	1:10.8	0.49	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.79	Poland
Romania	19.405	19669	4573	1296	13800	9.4	1:10.6	0.7	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	1.81	Romania
Russia	146.745	431715	230948	5208	195559	2.7	1:37.6	0.45	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.96	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	1525	122	28	1375	2.0	1:49.0	0.9	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.14	Slovakia
Bulgaria	7.0	2560	1208	146	1206	12.1	1:8.3	0.47	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.56	Bulgaria
Hungary	9.773	3931	1207	534	2190	24.4	1:4.1	0.56	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.15	1.48	Hungary
Belarus	9.413	45116	24697	248	20171	1.2	1:81.3	0.45	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.71	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	8795	3622	310	4863	6.4	1:15.7	0.55	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	3.12	Moldova
Ukraine	41.902	25385	13805	742	10838	6.8	1:14.6	0.43	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.48	Ukraine
Eastern Europe	291.46	572821	294104	9952	268765	3.7	1:27.0	0.47	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.92	Eastern Europe

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt