COVID-19 - Bulgaria - 20-08-04

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Bulgaria is included in the following groups: EU - Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region
Bulgaria has a landborder to: Greece - North Macedonia - Romania - Serbia - Turkey

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 12414 177.3 255 2.1% 1.69%
Active cases 5035 71.9 -36 -0.71% 0.82%
Deaths 415 5.9 11 2.72% 1.57%
Recovered 696499.52804.19%1.62%
Deaths per infected 3.34%
Recovered per infected56.1%
Active per infected 40.56%
Deaths per recovered 5.96%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
1.6%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 33d 9h 41d 8h
Time to reach a million cases 211d 11h261d 20h
Time to saturate the population305d 5h >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 105
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 78 74 54
Active 65 52 82
Deaths 64 59 39
Recovered 76 77 53
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Bulgaria

Greece - North Macedonia - Romania - Serbia - Turkey

Bulgaria in its groups

EU - Eastern Europe - Europe - UNR Eastern European Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt