COVID-19 - Spain - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Spain is included in the following groups: EU - Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Western European and Others Group - WHO European Region
Spain has a landborder to: Andorra - France - Portugal - Morocco

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 861112 1828.2 12788 1.51% 1.74%
Active cases 677807 1439.1 12547 1.89% 1.84%
Deaths 32929 69.9 241 0.74% 0.37%
Recovered 150376319.300.0%0.0%
Deaths per infected 3.82%
Recovered per infected17.46%
Active per infected 78.71%
Deaths per recovered 21.9%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
18.9%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 46d 7h 40d 3h
Time to reach a million cases 9d 23h8d 15h
Time to saturate the population267d 11h 231d 15h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population 30
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected 7 18 39
Active 3 1 65
Deaths 8 7 78
Recovered 23 74 182
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Neighbours of Spain

Andorra - France - Portugal - Morocco

Spain in its groups

EU - Southern Europe - Europe - UNR Western European and Others Group - WHO European Region

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt