COVID-19 - UNR African Group - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR African Group is a Group with the following members:
Algeria - Angola - Benin - Botswana - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Comoros - Congo (Brazzaville) - Congo (Kinshasa) - Cote d'Ivoire - Djibouti - Egypt - Equatorial Guinea - Eritrea - Eswatini - Ethiopia - Gabon - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Kenya - Lesotho - Liberia - Libya - Madagascar - Malawi - Mali - Mauritius - Mayotte - Morocco - Mozambique - Namibia - Niger - Nigeria - Reunion - Rwanda - Sao Tome and Principe - Senegal - Seychelles - Sierra Leone - Somalia - South Africa - South Sudan - Sudan - Tanzania - Togo - Tunisia - Uganda - Western Sahara - Zambia - Zimbabwe

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 161292 12.6 5051 3.23% 3.69%
Active cases 86578 6.8 1605 1.89% 2.7%
Deaths 4563 0.4 104 2.33% 2.73%
Recovered 701515.533425.0%3.53%
Deaths per infected 2.83%
Recovered per infected43.49%
Active per infected 53.68%
Deaths per recovered 6.5%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
0.1%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 21d 18h 19d 2h
Time to reach a million cases 57d 8h50d 7h
Time to saturate the population282d 5h 247d 13h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 129 44
Active na 107 56
Deaths na 118 38
Recovered na 123 34
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR African Group

Algeria - Angola - Benin - Botswana - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Comoros - Congo (Brazzaville) - Congo (Kinshasa) - Cote d'Ivoire - Djibouti - Egypt - Equatorial Guinea - Eritrea - Eswatini - Ethiopia - Gabon - Gambia - Ghana - Guinea - Guinea-Bissau - Kenya - Lesotho - Liberia - Libya - Madagascar - Malawi - Mali - Mauritius - Mayotte - Morocco - Mozambique - Namibia - Niger - Nigeria - Reunion - Rwanda - Sao Tome and Principe - Senegal - Seychelles - Sierra Leone - Somalia - South Africa - South Sudan - Sudan - Tanzania - Togo - Tunisia - Uganda - Western Sahara - Zambia - Zimbabwe

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Egypt100.152861520177108873505.334.643.684.4113d 8h19d 4h28.620.11.17.314.81:6.80.26
South Africa58.7753752517051792196825.124.394.353.9713d 21h16d 6h63.829.01.333.54.01:24.90.52
Algeria43.09733284267362181.28-1.210.892.2854d 13h77d 20h22.66.61.614.510.81:9.20.64
Morocco35.845792285020668660.53-10.280.394.05130d 4h176d 10h22.12.40.619.23.01:33.30.87
Tunisia11.722108773499650.3-0.90.00.4233d 12h9.30.60.48.25.11:19.70.89
Burkina Faso20.8788478537530.879.190.00.079d 22h4.20.40.33.67.01:14.20.85
Senegal16.209393218244520632.782.210.962.3925d 7h72d 5h24.311.30.312.72.21:45.90.52
Congo (Kinshasa)91.93134952928754924.293.250.873.8416d 11h80d 1h3.83.20.10.515.21:6.60.14
Cameroon26.5466585270920036763.987.242.522.0617d 18h27d 20h24.810.20.813.85.41:18.40.56
Nigeria206.1411166752231533293.732.773.783.7618d 22h18d 15h5.43.60.21.69.51:10.60.3
Ghana30.281854853783831322.340.452.274.4529d 21h30d 20h28.217.80.110.31.21:82.60.37
Cote d'Ivoire23.74311015453515302.52.060.621.8528d 2h111d 5h13.16.50.16.42.31:43.70.49
Rwanda12.37439712422712.260.9301.7330d 22h3.21.00.02.20.71:135.10.68
Ethiopia98.66514861223172468.967.6612.653.278d 1h5d 19h1.51.20.00.26.91:14.50.17
Kenya47.56422161589745534.914.162.782.6614d 10h25d 6h4.73.30.21.213.41:7.50.25
Mauritius1.2663353103220.00.00.00.026.50.20.825.43.11:32.20.96
Tanzania55.891509305211830.00.00.00.00.90.50.00.311.51:8.70.36
Equatorial Guinea1.35813061094122000.00.00.00.096.180.50.914.76.01:16.70.15
Congo (Brazzaville)5.244611412201791.41.071.052.2449d 19h66d 4h11.77.90.43.411.21:9.00.29
Liberia4.475316119281692.973.050.742.7523d 15h93d 22h7.12.70.63.816.61:6.00.53
Benin11.7332449331481.741.860.01.7240d 1h2.10.80.01.32.01:49.30.61
Sudan42.3615499347431417114.0-0.515.7616.317d 15h12d 8h13.08.20.74.018.41:5.40.31
Zambia17.381108917079120.61-7.450.03.41114d 19h6.31.00.05.20.81:129.90.84
Gabon2.17329022081208012.141.26.21.9532d 16h11d 12h133.695.80.936.92.51:40.00.28
Somalia15.89321461661794063.262.681.93.1321d 14h36d 17h13.510.50.52.619.51:5.10.19
Togo7.538452203132361.1-1.020.02.6663d 9h6.02.70.23.15.51:18.10.52
Central African Republic5.496117311464236.134.2340.00.011d 15h2d 1h21.320.90.10.417.41:5.80.02
Niger22.31596139658570.13-9.160.310.85>1yr222d 3h4.30.20.33.87.61:13.20.89
Guinea12.218393315782323321.48-0.440.912.5747d 5h76d 14h32.212.90.219.11.01:101.00.59
Chad15.693820164665901.56-6.670.314.8744d 17h225d 14h5.21.00.43.811.21:8.90.72
Djibouti1.078393522732616366.215.574.655.4711d 12h15d 5h364.9210.82.4151.71.61:62.90.42
Eswatini1.0932959132011.13-2.8310.03.4461d 22h7d 6h27.08.30.318.41.51:67.10.68
Madagascar25.6890870761955.444.424.02.4613d 2h17d 16h3.52.80.00.83.11:32.50.21
Zimbabwe15.162221894298.478.470.00.718d 12h1.51.20.00.213.81:7.30.13
Mozambique30.0731620521096.437.690.03.1811d 2h1.10.70.00.41.81:54.60.34
Uganda40.35074250829.3610.2302.787d 18h1.31.10.00.20.0na0.16
Libya6.7519613955210.7812.180.05.196d 18h2.92.10.10.89.61:10.40.27
Guinea-Bissau1.86133912788531.321.190.05.2452d 18h72.068.70.42.815.11:6.60.04
Mali18.431386519797882.490.841.342.8428d 4h51d 21h7.52.80.44.310.01:10.00.57
Comoros0.851321032279.2711.980.02.447d 19h15.512.10.23.27.41:13.50.2
Malawi18.143693144516.386.840.00.011d 4h2.01.70.00.37.81:12.80.14
Sao Tome and Principe0.248440412680.91.090.00.077d 9h242.0202.06.034.017.61:5.70.14
South Sudan12.929949781060.00.00.00.07.77.60.10.0166.71.7:10.01
Sierra Leone7.08909371474911.87-1.320.444.5237d 11h156d 7h12.85.20.76.99.61:10.40.54
UNR African Group1280.39161292865784563701513.692.72.733.5319d 2h25d 17h12.66.80.45.56.51:15.40.43

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Egypt100.1528615201771088735014.81:6.80.260.040.050.050.060.070.29Egypt
South Africa58.7753752517051792196824.01:24.90.520.020.030.030.030.040.36South Africa
Algeria43.097332842673621810.81:9.20.640.070.070.070.080.090.42Algeria
Morocco35.845792285020668663.01:33.30.870.030.030.030.030.030.16Morocco
Tunisia11.722108773499655.11:19.70.890.050.050.050.050.050.11Tunisia
Burkina Faso20.8788478537537.01:14.20.850.060.060.060.060.070.07Burkina Faso
Senegal16.209393218244520632.21:45.90.520.010.010.010.010.020.08Senegal
Congo (Kinshasa)91.931349529287549215.21:6.60.140.020.030.030.030.040.02Congo (Kinshasa)
Cameroon26.5466585270920036765.41:18.40.560.030.030.040.040.050.2Cameroon
Nigeria206.1411166752231533299.51:10.60.30.030.030.040.040.040.04Nigeria
Ghana30.281854853783831321.21:82.60.370.00.00.010.010.010.03Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire23.74311015453515302.31:43.70.490.010.010.010.010.020.04Cote d'Ivoire
Rwanda12.37439712422710.71:135.10.680.010.010.010.010.010.0Rwanda
Ethiopia98.66514861223172466.91:14.50.170.010.020.020.030.040.0Ethiopia
Kenya47.564221615897455313.41:7.50.250.030.040.050.060.070.04Kenya
Mauritius1.2663353103223.11:32.20.960.030.030.030.030.030.21Mauritius
Tanzania55.8915093052118311.51:8.70.360.040.040.040.040.040.01Tanzania
Equatorial Guinea1.35813061094122006.01:16.70.150.010.010.010.010.010.24Equatorial Guinea
Congo (Brazzaville)5.2446114122017911.21:9.00.290.030.040.040.040.040.1Congo (Brazzaville)
Liberia4.4753161192816916.61:6.00.530.090.10.10.110.120.17Liberia
Benin11.7332449331482.01:49.30.610.010.010.010.020.020.01Benin
Sudan42.36154993474314171118.41:5.40.310.060.070.070.080.10.2Sudan
Zambia17.381108917079120.81:129.90.840.010.010.010.010.010.01Zambia
Gabon2.17329022081208012.51:40.00.280.010.010.010.010.010.25Gabon
Somalia15.893214616617940619.51:5.10.190.040.040.040.050.050.13Somalia
Togo7.538452203132365.51:18.10.520.030.030.030.030.040.05Togo
Central African Republic5.4961173114642317.41:5.80.020.00.00.010.010.010.02Central African Republic
Niger22.31596139658577.61:13.20.890.070.070.070.070.070.08Niger
Guinea12.218393315782323321.01:101.00.590.010.010.010.010.010.05Guinea
Chad15.6938201646659011.21:8.90.720.080.090.090.10.110.11Chad
Djibouti1.078393522732616361.61:62.90.420.010.010.010.010.010.65Djibouti
Eswatini1.0932959132011.51:67.10.680.010.010.010.010.010.07Eswatini
Madagascar25.6890870761953.11:32.50.210.010.010.010.010.010.01Madagascar
Zimbabwe15.1622218942913.81:7.30.130.020.020.030.070.080.01Zimbabwe
Mozambique30.0731620521091.81:54.60.340.010.010.010.010.010.0Mozambique
Uganda40.35074250820.0na0.160.00.00.00.00.00.0Uganda
Libya6.751961395529.61:10.40.270.030.040.050.070.070.02Libya
Guinea-Bissau1.861339127885315.11:6.60.040.010.010.010.010.010.12Guinea-Bissau
Mali18.4313865197978810.01:10.00.570.060.060.070.070.080.12Mali
Comoros0.851321032277.41:13.50.20.020.020.020.020.060.06Comoros
Malawi18.143693144517.81:12.80.140.010.010.020.040.060.01Malawi
Sao Tome and Principe0.2484404126817.61:5.70.140.020.030.030.040.051.62Sao Tome and Principe
South Sudan12.92994978106166.71.7:10.010.010.010.010.010.020.02South Sudan
Sierra Leone7.08909371474919.61:10.40.540.050.060.060.060.080.18Sierra Leone
UNR African Group1280.39161292865784563701516.51:15.40.430.030.030.040.040.050.1UNR African Group

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt