COVID-19 - Southern Europe - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 4172621 2729.7 64494 1.57% 1.58%
Active cases 2676057 1750.7 13311 0.5% 0.65%
Deaths 115707 75.7 1570 1.38% 1.18%
Recovered 1380857903.3496133.73%2.59%
Deaths per infected 2.77%
Recovered per infected33.09%
Active per infected 64.13%
Deaths per recovered 8.38%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
20.46%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 44d 11h 44d 3h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population231d 4h 229d 8h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 30 45
Active na 9 83
Deaths na 19 39
Recovered na 55 20
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Europe

Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Italy60.2431538217787893536776966471.77-0.251.193.6539d 10h58d 16h2553.31307.889.11156.47.71:13.00.45
Spain47.116282081433164446681503760.90.850.810.077d 3h85d 18h3456.93042.894.8319.329.71:3.40.09
Portugal10.2772858388211642761994461.85-0.391.562.3337d 17h44d 21h2781.4799.141.61940.82.11:46.70.7
Greece10.725101287761112102230742.032.14.210.034d 12h16d 19h944.4709.719.6215.29.11:11.00.23
Slovenia2.09472674202601293511212.160.063.442.432d 9h20d 11h3470.4967.561.72441.22.51:39.50.7
Croatia4.076119706224081600956982.911.772.792.3224d 3h25d 4h2936.7549.739.32347.71.71:59.90.8
Serbia6.9641559941545711423155645.194.162.650.013d 16h26d 11h2240.12219.620.40.09.11:10.90.1
Albania2.8623624517719771177552.041.531.51.8434d 6h46d 10h1266.2619.026.9620.34.31:23.00.49
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30185431328882542500011.32-0.181.741.952d 18h40d 6h2588.0996.377.01514.75.11:19.70.59
Malta0.4949501207612872971.26-0.382.411.4955d 7h29d 1h1924.8420.625.91478.31.81:57.10.77
North Macedonia2.07759701212181658368251.750.051.532.1939d 22h45d 14h2874.21021.579.81772.94.51:22.20.62
Montenegro0.6223383610996474223661.73-0.011.332.240d 12h52d 7h5436.41766.776.23593.52.11:47.20.66
Kosovo1.913779213543975232741.961.631.051.5235d 16h66d 6h1978.6709.151.01218.54.21:23.90.62
Southern Europe152.864172621267605711570713808571.580.651.182.5944d 3h59d 1h2729.71750.775.7903.38.41:11.90.33

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Italy60.2431538217787893536776966477.71:13.00.450.030.040.040.040.0524.08Italy
Spain47.1162820814331644466815037629.71:3.40.090.030.030.030.030.0325.63Spain
Portugal10.2772858388211642761994462.11:46.70.70.010.020.020.020.0211.25Portugal
Greece10.725101287761112102230749.11:11.00.230.020.020.020.030.035.3Greece
Slovenia2.09472674202601293511212.51:39.50.70.020.020.020.020.0216.69Slovenia
Croatia4.076119706224081600956981.71:59.90.80.010.020.020.020.0210.61Croatia
Serbia6.9641559941545711423155649.11:10.90.10.010.010.010.010.025.52Serbia
Albania2.8623624517719771177554.31:23.00.490.020.020.020.030.037.28Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30185431328882542500015.11:19.70.590.030.030.030.030.0420.81Bosnia and Herzegovina
Malta0.4949501207612872971.81:57.10.770.010.010.010.020.027.01Malta
North Macedonia2.07759701212181658368254.51:22.20.620.030.030.030.030.0421.57North Macedonia
Montenegro0.6223383610996474223662.11:47.20.660.010.010.020.020.0220.58Montenegro
Kosovo1.913779213543975232744.21:23.90.620.030.030.030.030.0413.8Kosovo
Southern Europe152.864172621267605711570713808578.41:11.90.330.030.030.030.030.0320.46Southern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt