COVID-19 - Southern Europe - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 535458 350.3 1378 0.26% 0.21%
Active cases 121780 79.7 37 0.03% -0.81%
Deaths 63288 41.4 87 0.14% 0.12%
Recovered 350390229.212540.36%0.52%
Deaths per infected 11.82%
Recovered per infected65.44%
Active per infected 22.74%
Deaths per recovered 18.06%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
11.19%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 268d 23h 331d 8h
Time to reach a million cases 242d 9h298d 14h
Time to saturate the populationstable stable

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 24 136
Active na 32 133
Deaths na 8 106
Recovered na 13 117
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Europe

Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Italy60.24323383639297336011609380.14-2.860.180.93>1yr>1yr388.265.255.8267.120.91:4.80.69
Spain47.124032662822271281503760.150.440.00.0>1yrstable510.2133.457.6319.318.01:5.50.63
Portugal10.27733261117351447200790.81-0.10.760.9985d 21h92d 1h323.7114.214.1195.47.21:13.90.6
Greece10.7252937138417913740.190.350.460.0361d 6h151d 23h27.412.91.712.813.01:7.70.47
Slovenia2.09414771010913580.051.310.190.01stable>1yr70.50.55.264.88.01:12.50.92
Croatia4.07622464810320950.01-7.710.00.28stable55.11.22.551.44.91:20.30.93
Serbia6.96411523442624568520.3-0.640.250.73234d 11h281d 1h165.563.63.598.43.61:27.90.59
Albania2.8621184253338981.52.270.00.9346d 11h41.48.81.231.43.71:27.20.76
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.301255145515719390.53-2.410.521.16132d 4h133d 13h77.313.84.858.78.11:12.30.76
Malta0.4946225195620.19-9.00.01.52357d 9h126.010.31.8113.91.61:62.50.9
North Macedonia2.077249274214516053.26.22.291.0221d 23h30d 13h120.035.77.077.39.01:11.10.64
Montenegro0.622324093150.000.00.052.10.01.450.62.91:35.00.97
Kosovo1.911142241308711.77-1.110.00.739d 11h59.812.61.645.63.41:29.10.76
Southern Europe152.86535458121780632883503900.21-0.810.120.52331d 8h>1yr350.379.741.4229.218.11:5.50.65

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Italy60.243233836392973360116093820.91:4.80.690.140.140.140.150.1515.07Italy
Spain47.1240326628222712815037618.01:5.50.630.110.110.110.120.1215.57Spain
Portugal10.27733261117351447200797.21:13.90.60.040.040.050.050.053.81Portugal
Greece10.72529371384179137413.01:7.70.470.060.060.060.060.060.45Greece
Slovenia2.09414771010913588.01:12.50.920.070.070.070.070.071.41Slovenia
Croatia4.07622464810320954.91:20.30.930.050.050.050.050.050.68Croatia
Serbia6.96411523442624568523.61:27.90.590.020.020.020.020.020.95Serbia
Albania2.8621184253338983.71:27.20.760.030.030.030.030.030.31Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.301255145515719398.11:12.30.760.060.060.060.070.071.29Bosnia and Herzegovina
Malta0.4946225195621.61:62.50.90.010.010.010.010.020.49Malta
North Macedonia2.077249274214516059.01:11.10.640.060.070.070.070.081.89North Macedonia
Montenegro0.622324093152.91:35.00.970.030.030.030.030.030.39Montenegro
Kosovo1.911142241308713.41:29.10.760.030.030.030.030.030.42Kosovo
Southern Europe152.865354581217806328835039018.11:5.50.650.120.120.120.120.1211.19Southern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt