COVID-19 - Southern Europe - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

Southern Europe is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 1473912 964.2 22462 1.55% 1.51%
Active cases 857585 561.0 19011 2.27% 1.82%
Deaths 75862 49.6 316 0.42% 0.23%
Recovered 540465353.631350.58%0.4%
Deaths per infected 5.15%
Recovered per infected36.67%
Active per infected 58.18%
Deaths per recovered 14.04%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
13.41%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 45d 3h 46d 8h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population302d 5h 310d 11h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 35 43
Active na 12 65
Deaths na 18 100
Recovered na 66 95
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: Southern Europe

Albania - Andorra - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Croatia - Greece - Holy See - Italy - Kosovo - Malta - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Portugal - San Marino - Serbia - Slovenia - Spain

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Italy60.24334377070110361112375491.112.820.050.3862d 19hstable570.6116.459.9394.315.21:6.60.69
Spain47.1861112677807329291503761.741.840.370.040d 3h186d 6h1828.21439.169.9319.321.91:4.60.17
Portugal10.27783928297022062521641.181.470.450.5259d 2h156d 0h816.7289.020.1507.64.01:25.30.62
Greece10.725217721999443113471.871.631.010.037d 7h69d 1h203.0186.44.012.632.01:3.10.06
Slovenia2.0947872286516548423.925.450.641.7818d 0h108d 17h375.9136.87.9231.23.41:29.30.62
Croatia4.076194462438313166951.958.210.790.7835d 21h87d 13h477.159.87.7409.61.91:53.50.86
Serbia6.9643451733756761155640.360.260.160.0192d 10h>1yr495.7484.710.90.04.91:20.40.45
Albania2.86215066534941393041.10.30.751.2263d 12h93d 3h526.3186.914.4325.04.41:22.50.62
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.301299175750926232411.080.220.760.9764d 12h91d 3h906.3174.228.1704.14.01:25.10.78
Malta0.49435816254129151.834.271.010.938d 3h68d 18h725.5126.68.3590.61.41:70.90.81
North Macedonia2.077201633373781160091.423.260.50.6649d 2h139d 11h970.7162.437.6770.74.91:20.50.79
Montenegro0.62213348382819493261.94-1.731.312.8636d 2h53d 3h2144.6615.031.21498.42.11:48.10.7
Kosovo1.91159711144638141890.2-2.680.250.41350d 17h274d 9h836.259.933.4742.94.51:22.20.89
Southern Europe152.861473912857585758625404651.511.820.230.446d 8h295d 23h964.2561.049.6353.614.01:7.10.37

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Italy60.243343770701103611123754915.21:6.60.690.10.110.110.110.1216.2Italy
Spain47.18611126778073292915037621.91:4.60.170.040.040.040.040.0518.9Spain
Portugal10.27783928297022062521644.01:25.30.620.020.030.030.030.035.42Portugal
Greece10.7252177219994431134732.01:3.10.060.020.020.020.020.031.09Greece
Slovenia2.0947872286516548423.41:29.30.620.020.020.030.030.032.13Slovenia
Croatia4.076194462438313166951.91:53.50.860.020.020.020.020.022.08Croatia
Serbia6.9643451733756761155644.91:20.40.450.020.020.020.020.022.95Serbia
Albania2.86215066534941393044.41:22.50.620.030.030.030.030.033.9Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.301299175750926232414.01:25.10.780.030.030.030.030.037.58Bosnia and Herzegovina
Malta0.49435816254129151.41:70.90.810.010.010.010.010.012.24Malta
North Macedonia2.077201633373781160094.91:20.50.790.040.040.040.040.0410.16North Macedonia
Montenegro0.62213348382819493262.11:48.10.70.010.020.020.020.028.42Montenegro
Kosovo1.91159711144638141894.51:22.20.890.040.040.050.050.059.03Kosovo
Southern Europe152.8614739128575857586254046514.01:7.10.370.050.050.060.060.0613.41Southern Europe

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt