COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	2392413	707.5	42840	1.82%	1.5%
Active cases	638592	188.9	24560	4.0%	2.33%
Deaths	46432	13.7	524	1.14%	0.89%
Recovered	1707389	504.9	17756	1.05%	0.73%

Deaths per infected	1.94%
Recovered per infected	71.37%
Active per infected	26.69%
Deaths per recovered	2.72%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	3.71%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	38d 8h	46d 16h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	274d 0h	333d 8h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	52	43
Active	na	36	57
Deaths	na	49	37
Recovered	na	47	66
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	109374	55296	905	53173	5.83	5.42	3.65	3.02	12d 5h	19d 8h	1022.8	517.1	8.5	497.2	1.7	1:58.8	0.49
Poland	38.386	116338	35544	2919	77875	3.06	5.75	1.75	0.94	22d 23h	40d 1h	303.1	92.6	7.6	202.9	3.8	1:26.7	0.67
Slovenia	2.094	7872	2865	165	4842	3.92	5.45	0.64	1.78	18d 0h	108d 17h	375.9	136.8	7.9	231.2	3.4	1:29.3	0.62
Romania	19.405	148886	28795	5299	114792	1.84	3.76	0.96	0.91	37d 23h	72d 15h	767.2	148.4	27.3	591.6	4.6	1:21.6	0.77
Estonia	1.328	3809	835	68	2906	1.1	1.94	0.0	0.54	63d 13h		286.7	62.9	5.1	218.8	2.3	1:42.7	0.76
Russia	146.745	1265572	238236	22137	1005199	0.92	1.93	0.63	0.46	75d 20h	110d 3h	862.4	162.3	15.1	685.0	2.2	1:45.5	0.79
Slovakia	5.456	16910	11401	57	5452	5.2	4.62	0.73	2.1	13d 16h	95d 15h	309.9	208.9	1.0	99.9	1.1	1:95.2	0.32
Armenia	2.958	55087	8549	1010	45528	0.97	3.6	0.55	0.29	71d 21h	127d 0h	1862.6	289.1	34.2	1539.4	2.2	1:45.0	0.83
Croatia	4.076	19446	2438	313	16695	1.95	8.21	0.79	0.78	35d 21h	87d 13h	477.1	59.8	7.7	409.6	1.9	1:53.5	0.86
Bulgaria	7.0	23871	7271	887	15713	2.03	3.56	0.84	0.72	34d 10h	82d 20h	341.0	103.9	12.7	224.5	5.7	1:17.7	0.66
Serbia	6.964	34517	33756	761	15564	0.36	0.26	0.16	0.0	192d 10h	>1yr	495.7	484.7	10.9	0.0	4.9	1:20.4	0.45
Latvia	1.907	2507	1145	40	1322	3.75	6.42	1.04	0.23	18d 19h	67d 1h	131.5	60.0	2.1	69.3	3.0	1:33.0	0.53
Hungary	9.773	35222	25107	913	9202	2.87	1.47	1.79	4.29	24d 11h	39d 1h	360.4	256.9	9.3	94.2	9.9	1:10.1	0.26
Albania	2.862	15066	5349	413	9304	1.1	0.3	0.75	1.22	63d 12h	93d 3h	526.3	186.9	14.4	325.0	4.4	1:22.5	0.62
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	29917	5750	926	23241	1.08	0.22	0.76	0.97	64d 12h	91d 3h	906.3	174.2	28.1	704.1	4.0	1:25.1	0.78
Belarus	9.413	82471	5043	885	76543	0.65	5.63	0.67	0.25	107d 8h	103d 7h	876.1	53.6	9.4	813.1	1.2	1:86.2	0.93
Moldova	2.682	60833	15902	1442	43489	1.46	1.68	0.84	0.98	47d 18h	83d 5h	2268.4	593.0	53.8	1621.7	3.3	1:30.1	0.71
Lithuania	2.793	5758	2933	103	2722	2.12	1.99	1.67	1.29	33d 1h	41d 22h	206.1	105.0	3.7	97.4	3.8	1:26.5	0.47
North Macedonia	2.077	20163	3373	781	16009	1.42	3.26	0.5	0.66	49d 2h	139d 11h	970.7	162.4	37.6	770.7	4.9	1:20.5	0.79
Azerbaijan	10.067	41519	1785	605	39129	0.4	1.11	0.23	0.27	172d 0h	296d 16h	412.4	17.7	6.0	388.7	1.6	1:64.5	0.94
Georgia	3.724	10752	4814	72	5866	5.78	3.82	5.76	5.57	12d 7h	12d 9h	288.8	129.3	1.9	157.5	1.2	1:81.3	0.55
Ukraine	41.902	257204	137433	4899	114872	2.05	1.55	1.35	1.61	34d 4h	51d 12h	613.8	328.0	11.7	274.1	4.3	1:23.5	0.45
Montenegro	0.622	13348	3828	194	9326	1.94	-1.73	1.31	2.86	36d 2h	53d 3h	2144.6	615.0	31.2	1498.4	2.1	1:48.1	0.7
Kosovo	1.91	15971	1144	638	14189	0.2	-2.68	0.25	0.41	350d 17h	274d 9h	836.2	59.9	33.4	742.9	4.5	1:22.2	0.89
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	2392413	638592	46432	1707389	1.5	2.33	0.89	0.73	46d 16h	78d 6h	707.5	188.9	13.7	504.9	2.7	1:36.8	0.71

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	109374	55296	905	53173	1.7	1:58.8	0.49	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.29	Czechia
Poland	38.386	116338	35544	2919	77875	3.8	1:26.7	0.67	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	2.06	Poland
Slovenia	2.094	7872	2865	165	4842	3.4	1:29.3	0.62	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	2.13	Slovenia
Romania	19.405	148886	28795	5299	114792	4.6	1:21.6	0.77	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	7.38	Romania
Estonia	1.328	3809	835	68	2906	2.3	1:42.7	0.76	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.38	Estonia
Russia	146.745	1265572	238236	22137	1005199	2.2	1:45.5	0.79	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	4.08	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	16910	11401	57	5452	1.1	1:95.2	0.32	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.01	0.01	0.28	Slovakia
Armenia	2.958	55087	8549	1010	45528	2.2	1:45.0	0.83	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	9.23	Armenia
Croatia	4.076	19446	2438	313	16695	1.9	1:53.5	0.86	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.08	Croatia
Bulgaria	7.0	23871	7271	887	15713	5.7	1:17.7	0.66	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	3.42	Bulgaria
Serbia	6.964	34517	33756	761	15564	4.9	1:20.4	0.45	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.95	Serbia
Latvia	1.907	2507	1145	40	1322	3.0	1:33.0	0.53	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.57	Latvia
Hungary	9.773	35222	25107	913	9202	9.9	1:10.1	0.26	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	2.52	Hungary
Albania	2.862	15066	5349	413	9304	4.4	1:22.5	0.62	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	3.9	Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	29917	5750	926	23241	4.0	1:25.1	0.78	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	7.58	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus	9.413	82471	5043	885	76543	1.2	1:86.2	0.93	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.54	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	60833	15902	1442	43489	3.3	1:30.1	0.71	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	14.53	Moldova
Lithuania	2.793	5758	2933	103	2722	3.8	1:26.5	0.47	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.0	Lithuania
North Macedonia	2.077	20163	3373	781	16009	4.9	1:20.5	0.79	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	10.16	North Macedonia
Azerbaijan	10.067	41519	1785	605	39129	1.6	1:64.5	0.94	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	1.62	Azerbaijan
Georgia	3.724	10752	4814	72	5866	1.2	1:81.3	0.55	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.52	Georgia
Ukraine	41.902	257204	137433	4899	114872	4.3	1:23.5	0.45	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	3.16	Ukraine
Montenegro	0.622	13348	3828	194	9326	2.1	1:48.1	0.7	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	8.42	Montenegro
Kosovo	1.91	15971	1144	638	14189	4.5	1:22.2	0.89	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	9.03	Kosovo
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	2392413	638592	46432	1707389	2.7	1:36.8	0.71	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	3.71	UNR Eastern European Group

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt