COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 6568696 1942.6 119437 1.85% 1.77%
Active cases 2191823 648.2 37064 1.72% 0.66%
Deaths 113709 33.6 2365 2.12% 1.63%
Recovered 42631641260.8800081.91%1.79%
Deaths per infected 1.73%
Recovered per infected64.9%
Active per infected 33.37%
Deaths per recovered 2.67%
Total Case Percentage

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 37d 18h 39d 13h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population214d 18h 224d 23h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 192Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 48 39
Active na 35 83
Deaths na 41 25
Recovered na 40 35
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!


Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.6945159848299179674250260.95-3.641.571.6573d 14h44d 9h4825.0776.174.53974.51.91:53.50.82
Poland38.386958416425633161475166362.160.342.733.1632d 9h25d 17h2496.81108.842.11345.93.11:31.90.54
Slovenia2.09472674202601293511212.160.063.442.432d 9h20d 11h3470.4967.561.72441.22.51:39.50.7
Romania19.405457848120307108843266571.810.31.291.8638d 16h53d 23h2359.4620.056.11683.33.31:30.00.71
Estonia1.32811323450910467103.092.142.392.722d 17h29d 7h852.4339.47.8505.11.61:64.50.59
Russia146.74521966914608983817516976181.180.321.011.159d 5h68d 18h1496.9314.126.01156.82.21:44.40.77
Slovakia5.45610310643050771592851.39-2.332.234.2350d 5h31d 10h1889.6789.014.11086.51.31:76.90.57
Armenia2.9581323462510720901051490.95- 2h59d 22h4474.9848.970.73555.32.01:50.30.79
Croatia4.076119706224081600956982.911.772.792.3224d 3h25d 4h2936.7549.739.32347.71.71:59.90.8
Bulgaria7.0139955895353680467402.821.384.174.2324d 23h16d 22h1999.41279.152.6667.77.91:12.70.33
Serbia6.9641559941545711423155645.194.162.650.013d 16h26d 11h2240.12219.620.40.09.11:10.90.1
Latvia1.907158081389919017193.813.234.241.0118d 12h16d 16h829.0728.910.090.211.11:9.00.11
Hungary9.7731984401419504364521262.591.572.173.0527d 1h32d 7h2030.51452.544.7533.48.41:11.90.26
Albania2.8623624517719771177552.041.531.51.8434d 6h46d 10h1266.2619.026.9620.34.31:23.00.49
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30185431328882542500011.32-0.181.741.952d 18h40d 6h2588.0996.377.01514.75.11:19.70.59
Belarus9.4131316332034511361101521.21.10.580.9358d 0h120d 8h1398.4216.112.11170.21.01:97.10.84
Moldova2.682104140100932250917971.24-7.890.732.6456d 10h94d 17h3883.4376.483.93423.12.51:40.80.88
Lithuania2.7935609542110471135143.582.643.092.9719d 16h22d 18h2008.11507.516.9483.83.51:28.70.24
North Macedonia2.07759701212181658368251.750.051.532.1939d 22h45d 14h2874.21021.579.81772.94.51:22.20.62
Azerbaijan10.067109813385911291699313.365.262.121.4420d 23h32d 23h1090.8383.312.8694.61.91:54.10.64
Georgia3.7241234702003911611022703.350.742.872.9121d 1h24d 11h3316.0538.231.22746.61.11:87.70.83
Ukraine41.902712249359163122923407942.091.231.382.0533d 11h50d 14h1699.8857.129.3813.33.61:27.70.48
Montenegro0.6223383610996474223661.73-0.011.332.240d 12h52d 7h5436.41766.776.23593.52.11:47.20.66
Kosovo1.913779213543975232741.961.631.051.5235d 16h66d 6h1978.6709.151.01218.54.21:23.90.62
UNR Eastern European Group338.146568696219182311370942631641.770.661.631.7939d 13h42d 21h1942.6648.233.61260.82.71:37.50.65

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30185431328882542500015.11:19.70.590. and Herzegovina
North Macedonia2.07759701212181658368254.51:22.20.620. Macedonia
UNR Eastern European Group338.146568696219182311370942631642.71:37.50.650. Eastern European Group

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt