COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-11-27

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	6568696	1942.6	119437	1.85%	1.77%
Active cases	2191823	648.2	37064	1.72%	0.66%
Deaths	113709	33.6	2365	2.12%	1.63%
Recovered	4263164	1260.8	80008	1.91%	1.79%

Deaths per infected	1.73%
Recovered per infected	64.9%
Active per infected	33.37%
Deaths per recovered	2.67%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	9.09%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	37d 18h	39d 13h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	214d 18h	224d 23h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	192	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	48	39
Active	na	35	83
Deaths	na	41	25
Recovered	na	40	35
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	515984	82991	7967	425026	0.95	-3.64	1.57	1.65	73d 14h	44d 9h	4825.0	776.1	74.5	3974.5	1.9	1:53.5	0.82
Poland	38.386	958416	425633	16147	516636	2.16	0.34	2.73	3.16	32d 9h	25d 17h	2496.8	1108.8	42.1	1345.9	3.1	1:31.9	0.54
Slovenia	2.094	72674	20260	1293	51121	2.16	0.06	3.44	2.4	32d 9h	20d 11h	3470.4	967.5	61.7	2441.2	2.5	1:39.5	0.7
Romania	19.405	457848	120307	10884	326657	1.81	0.3	1.29	1.86	38d 16h	53d 23h	2359.4	620.0	56.1	1683.3	3.3	1:30.0	0.71
Estonia	1.328	11323	4509	104	6710	3.09	2.14	2.39	2.7	22d 17h	29d 7h	852.4	339.4	7.8	505.1	1.6	1:64.5	0.59
Russia	146.745	2196691	460898	38175	1697618	1.18	0.32	1.01	1.1	59d 5h	68d 18h	1496.9	314.1	26.0	1156.8	2.2	1:44.4	0.77
Slovakia	5.456	103106	43050	771	59285	1.39	-2.33	2.23	4.23	50d 5h	31d 10h	1889.6	789.0	14.1	1086.5	1.3	1:76.9	0.57
Armenia	2.958	132346	25107	2090	105149	0.95	-3.06	1.16	1.85	73d 2h	59d 22h	4474.9	848.9	70.7	3555.3	2.0	1:50.3	0.79
Croatia	4.076	119706	22408	1600	95698	2.91	1.77	2.79	2.32	24d 3h	25d 4h	2936.7	549.7	39.3	2347.7	1.7	1:59.9	0.8
Bulgaria	7.0	139955	89535	3680	46740	2.82	1.38	4.17	4.23	24d 23h	16d 22h	1999.4	1279.1	52.6	667.7	7.9	1:12.7	0.33
Serbia	6.964	155994	154571	1423	15564	5.19	4.16	2.65	0.0	13d 16h	26d 11h	2240.1	2219.6	20.4	0.0	9.1	1:10.9	0.1
Latvia	1.907	15808	13899	190	1719	3.81	3.23	4.24	1.01	18d 12h	16d 16h	829.0	728.9	10.0	90.2	11.1	1:9.0	0.11
Hungary	9.773	198440	141950	4364	52126	2.59	1.57	2.17	3.05	27d 1h	32d 7h	2030.5	1452.5	44.7	533.4	8.4	1:11.9	0.26
Albania	2.862	36245	17719	771	17755	2.04	1.53	1.5	1.84	34d 6h	46d 10h	1266.2	619.0	26.9	620.3	4.3	1:23.0	0.49
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	85431	32888	2542	50001	1.32	-0.18	1.74	1.9	52d 18h	40d 6h	2588.0	996.3	77.0	1514.7	5.1	1:19.7	0.59
Belarus	9.413	131633	20345	1136	110152	1.2	1.1	0.58	0.93	58d 0h	120d 8h	1398.4	216.1	12.1	1170.2	1.0	1:97.1	0.84
Moldova	2.682	104140	10093	2250	91797	1.24	-7.89	0.73	2.64	56d 10h	94d 17h	3883.4	376.4	83.9	3423.1	2.5	1:40.8	0.88
Lithuania	2.793	56095	42110	471	13514	3.58	2.64	3.09	2.97	19d 16h	22d 18h	2008.1	1507.5	16.9	483.8	3.5	1:28.7	0.24
North Macedonia	2.077	59701	21218	1658	36825	1.75	0.05	1.53	2.19	39d 22h	45d 14h	2874.2	1021.5	79.8	1772.9	4.5	1:22.2	0.62
Azerbaijan	10.067	109813	38591	1291	69931	3.36	5.26	2.12	1.44	20d 23h	32d 23h	1090.8	383.3	12.8	694.6	1.9	1:54.1	0.64
Georgia	3.724	123470	20039	1161	102270	3.35	0.74	2.87	2.91	21d 1h	24d 11h	3316.0	538.2	31.2	2746.6	1.1	1:87.7	0.83
Ukraine	41.902	712249	359163	12292	340794	2.09	1.23	1.38	2.05	33d 11h	50d 14h	1699.8	857.1	29.3	813.3	3.6	1:27.7	0.48
Montenegro	0.622	33836	10996	474	22366	1.73	-0.01	1.33	2.2	40d 12h	52d 7h	5436.4	1766.7	76.2	3593.5	2.1	1:47.2	0.66
Kosovo	1.91	37792	13543	975	23274	1.96	1.63	1.05	1.52	35d 16h	66d 6h	1978.6	709.1	51.0	1218.5	4.2	1:23.9	0.62
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	6568696	2191823	113709	4263164	1.77	0.66	1.63	1.79	39d 13h	42d 21h	1942.6	648.2	33.6	1260.8	2.7	1:37.5	0.65

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	515984	82991	7967	425026	1.9	1:53.5	0.82	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	20.14	Czechia
Poland	38.386	958416	425633	16147	516636	3.1	1:31.9	0.54	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	11.37	Poland
Slovenia	2.094	72674	20260	1293	51121	2.5	1:39.5	0.7	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	16.69	Slovenia
Romania	19.405	457848	120307	10884	326657	3.3	1:30.0	0.71	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	15.16	Romania
Estonia	1.328	11323	4509	104	6710	1.6	1:64.5	0.59	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	2.12	Estonia
Russia	146.745	2196691	460898	38175	1697618	2.2	1:44.4	0.77	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	7.03	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	103106	43050	771	59285	1.3	1:76.9	0.57	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3.82	Slovakia
Armenia	2.958	132346	25107	2090	105149	2.0	1:50.3	0.79	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	19.1	Armenia
Croatia	4.076	119706	22408	1600	95698	1.7	1:59.9	0.8	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	10.61	Croatia
Bulgaria	7.0	139955	89535	3680	46740	7.9	1:12.7	0.33	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	14.21	Bulgaria
Serbia	6.964	155994	154571	1423	15564	9.1	1:10.9	0.1	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	5.52	Serbia
Latvia	1.907	15808	13899	190	1719	11.1	1:9.0	0.11	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	2.69	Latvia
Hungary	9.773	198440	141950	4364	52126	8.4	1:11.9	0.26	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	12.07	Hungary
Albania	2.862	36245	17719	771	17755	4.3	1:23.0	0.49	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	7.28	Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	85431	32888	2542	50001	5.1	1:19.7	0.59	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	20.81	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus	9.413	131633	20345	1136	110152	1.0	1:97.1	0.84	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3.26	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	104140	10093	2250	91797	2.5	1:40.8	0.88	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	22.68	Moldova
Lithuania	2.793	56095	42110	471	13514	3.5	1:28.7	0.24	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4.56	Lithuania
North Macedonia	2.077	59701	21218	1658	36825	4.5	1:22.2	0.62	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	21.57	North Macedonia
Azerbaijan	10.067	109813	38591	1291	69931	1.9	1:54.1	0.64	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	3.47	Azerbaijan
Georgia	3.724	123470	20039	1161	102270	1.1	1:87.7	0.83	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	8.43	Georgia
Ukraine	41.902	712249	359163	12292	340794	3.6	1:27.7	0.48	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	7.93	Ukraine
Montenegro	0.622	33836	10996	474	22366	2.1	1:47.2	0.66	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	20.58	Montenegro
Kosovo	1.91	37792	13543	975	23274	4.2	1:23.9	0.62	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	13.8	Kosovo
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	6568696	2191823	113709	4263164	2.7	1:37.5	0.65	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	9.09	UNR Eastern European Group

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt