COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 1347845 398.6 11543 0.86% 0.82%
Active cases 331066 97.9 -1554 -0.47% 0.31%
Deaths 27421 8.1 270 0.99% 0.78%
Recovered 989358292.6128271.31%0.77%
Deaths per infected 2.03%
Recovered per infected73.4%
Active per infected 24.56%
Deaths per recovered 2.77%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
2.19%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 80d 14h 84d 13h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population>1yr >1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 47 89
Active na 44 83
Deaths na 47 72
Recovered na 39 85
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.694177315021390123201.212.050.260.5557d 18h264d 20h165.847.03.6115.23.21:31.50.69
Poland38.38649515120991774356421.332.710.40.5552d 9h171d 20h129.031.54.692.95.01:20.10.72
Slovenia2.094222318912519090.47-2.790.830.68146d 7h84d 1h106.29.06.091.26.51:15.30.86
Romania19.40557895263372566289922.132.61.170.8932d 22h59d 15h298.3135.713.2149.48.81:11.30.5
Estonia1.32821241076319540.58.38-1.740.14139d 16h159.98.14.7147.13.21:31.10.92
Russia146.745870187180539145796750690.62-0.190.610.69112d 22h114d 10h593.0123.09.9460.02.21:46.30.78
Slovakia5.45624806272918241.21.590.00.458d 3h45.511.50.533.41.61:62.90.74
Armenia2.958398197491772315560.5-1.360.560.86139d 7h125d 4h1346.4253.326.11067.02.51:40.80.79
Croatia4.076540456115546880.68-2.971.221.12102d 6h57d 4h132.613.83.8115.03.31:30.20.87
Bulgaria7.013014520543573741.920.341.962.2836d 12h35d 17h185.974.46.2105.35.91:16.90.57
Serbia6.9642733226711621155641.10.871.080.063d 13h64d 15h392.5383.68.90.04.01:25.10.57
Latvia1.90712751733210700.590.260.00.34117d 11h66.99.11.756.13.01:33.40.84
Hungary9.773459753460034630.31-1.110.070.4222d 12hstable47.05.56.135.417.31:5.80.75
Albania2.8626016267318831552.22.62.491.0831d 20h28d 4h210.293.46.6110.26.01:16.80.52
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30113396597038470422.441.22.262.8228d 17h30d 22h405.8180.911.6213.35.51:18.30.53
Belarus9.413685034167580637560.16-1.40.490.23>1yr141d 0h727.744.36.2677.30.91:109.90.93
Moldova2.682266287124828186761.181.40.870.6759d 2h79d 14h993.0265.730.9696.44.41:22.60.7
Lithuania2.79321714348116560.732.440.250.0794d 16h277d 14h77.715.52.959.34.91:20.40.76
North Macedonia2.07711399340251774800.92-0.780.721.5275d 23h96d 12h548.8163.824.9360.16.91:14.50.66
Azerbaijan10.067332473493479292750.67-6.20.951.73103d 22h73d 2h330.334.74.8290.81.61:61.00.88
Georgia3.7241206202179870.59-0.090.00.56117d 12h32.45.40.526.51.71:58.10.82
Ukraine41.90278515328571846438121.581.420.911.144d 7h76d 16h187.478.44.4104.64.21:23.80.56
Montenegro0.622348012426021781.7-6.22.699.9641d 0h26d 3h559.1199.69.6349.92.81:36.40.63
Kosovo1.919688390830054803.672.067.183.1219d 5h9d 23h507.2204.615.7286.95.51:18.30.57
UNR Eastern European Group338.141347845331066274219893580.820.310.780.7784d 13h88d 21h398.697.98.1292.62.81:36.10.73

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Czechia10.694177315021390123203.21:31.50.690.020.020.020.020.030.99Czechia
Poland38.38649515120991774356425.01:20.10.720.040.040.040.040.041.25Poland
Slovenia2.094222318912519096.51:15.30.860.060.060.060.060.061.61Slovenia
Romania19.40557895263372566289928.81:11.30.50.040.050.050.050.063.57Romania
Estonia1.32821241076319543.21:31.10.920.030.030.030.030.031.28Estonia
Russia146.745870187180539145796750692.21:46.30.780.020.020.020.020.022.69Russia
Slovakia5.45624806272918241.61:62.90.740.010.010.010.010.010.14Slovakia
Armenia2.958398197491772315562.51:40.80.790.020.020.020.020.027.05Armenia
Croatia4.076540456115546883.31:30.20.870.030.030.030.030.031.03Croatia
Bulgaria7.013014520543573745.91:16.90.570.030.040.040.040.041.68Bulgaria
Serbia6.9642733226711621155644.01:25.10.570.020.020.020.030.032.41Serbia
Latvia1.90712751733210703.01:33.40.840.030.030.030.030.030.45Latvia
Hungary9.7734597534600346317.31:5.80.750.130.130.130.130.141.66Hungary
Albania2.8626016267318831556.01:16.80.520.030.030.030.040.041.78Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.30113396597038470425.51:18.30.530.030.030.030.040.043.14Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus9.413685034167580637560.91:109.90.930.010.010.010.010.011.67Belarus
Moldova2.682266287124828186764.41:22.60.70.030.030.030.040.048.34Moldova
Lithuania2.79321714348116564.91:20.40.760.040.040.040.040.040.78Lithuania
North Macedonia2.07711399340251774806.91:14.50.660.050.050.050.050.056.73North Macedonia
Azerbaijan10.067332473493479292751.61:61.00.880.010.010.010.020.021.29Azerbaijan
Georgia3.7241206202179871.71:58.10.820.010.010.010.010.020.12Georgia
Ukraine41.90278515328571846438124.21:23.80.560.020.030.030.030.031.19Ukraine
Montenegro0.622348012426021782.81:36.40.630.020.020.020.020.022.61Montenegro
Kosovo1.919688390830054805.51:18.30.570.030.030.040.040.044.25Kosovo
UNR Eastern European Group338.141347845331066274219893582.81:36.10.730.020.020.020.020.022.19UNR Eastern European Group

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt