COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-08-06

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	1347845	398.6	11543	0.86%	0.82%
Active cases	331066	97.9	-1554	-0.47%	0.31%
Deaths	27421	8.1	270	0.99%	0.78%
Recovered	989358	292.6	12827	1.31%	0.77%

Deaths per infected	2.03%
Recovered per infected	73.4%
Active per infected	24.56%
Deaths per recovered	2.77%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	2.19%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	80d 14h	84d 13h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population	>1yr	>1yr

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	47	89
Active	na	44	83
Deaths	na	47	72
Recovered	na	39	85
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	17731	5021	390	12320	1.21	2.05	0.26	0.55	57d 18h	264d 20h	165.8	47.0	3.6	115.2	3.2	1:31.5	0.69
Poland	38.386	49515	12099	1774	35642	1.33	2.71	0.4	0.55	52d 9h	171d 20h	129.0	31.5	4.6	92.9	5.0	1:20.1	0.72
Slovenia	2.094	2223	189	125	1909	0.47	-2.79	0.83	0.68	146d 7h	84d 1h	106.2	9.0	6.0	91.2	6.5	1:15.3	0.86
Romania	19.405	57895	26337	2566	28992	2.13	2.6	1.17	0.89	32d 22h	59d 15h	298.3	135.7	13.2	149.4	8.8	1:11.3	0.5
Estonia	1.328	2124	107	63	1954	0.5	8.38	-1.74	0.14	139d 16h		159.9	8.1	4.7	147.1	3.2	1:31.1	0.92
Russia	146.745	870187	180539	14579	675069	0.62	-0.19	0.61	0.69	112d 22h	114d 10h	593.0	123.0	9.9	460.0	2.2	1:46.3	0.78
Slovakia	5.456	2480	627	29	1824	1.2	1.59	0.0	0.4	58d 3h		45.5	11.5	0.5	33.4	1.6	1:62.9	0.74
Armenia	2.958	39819	7491	772	31556	0.5	-1.36	0.56	0.86	139d 7h	125d 4h	1346.4	253.3	26.1	1067.0	2.5	1:40.8	0.79
Croatia	4.076	5404	561	155	4688	0.68	-2.97	1.22	1.12	102d 6h	57d 4h	132.6	13.8	3.8	115.0	3.3	1:30.2	0.87
Bulgaria	7.0	13014	5205	435	7374	1.92	0.34	1.96	2.28	36d 12h	35d 17h	185.9	74.4	6.2	105.3	5.9	1:16.9	0.57
Serbia	6.964	27332	26711	621	15564	1.1	0.87	1.08	0.0	63d 13h	64d 15h	392.5	383.6	8.9	0.0	4.0	1:25.1	0.57
Latvia	1.907	1275	173	32	1070	0.59	0.26	0.0	0.34	117d 11h		66.9	9.1	1.7	56.1	3.0	1:33.4	0.84
Hungary	9.773	4597	534	600	3463	0.31	-1.11	0.07	0.4	222d 12h	stable	47.0	5.5	6.1	35.4	17.3	1:5.8	0.75
Albania	2.862	6016	2673	188	3155	2.2	2.6	2.49	1.08	31d 20h	28d 4h	210.2	93.4	6.6	110.2	6.0	1:16.8	0.52
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	13396	5970	384	7042	2.44	1.2	2.26	2.82	28d 17h	30d 22h	405.8	180.9	11.6	213.3	5.5	1:18.3	0.53
Belarus	9.413	68503	4167	580	63756	0.16	-1.4	0.49	0.23	>1yr	141d 0h	727.7	44.3	6.2	677.3	0.9	1:109.9	0.93
Moldova	2.682	26628	7124	828	18676	1.18	1.4	0.87	0.67	59d 2h	79d 14h	993.0	265.7	30.9	696.4	4.4	1:22.6	0.7
Lithuania	2.793	2171	434	81	1656	0.73	2.44	0.25	0.07	94d 16h	277d 14h	77.7	15.5	2.9	59.3	4.9	1:20.4	0.76
North Macedonia	2.077	11399	3402	517	7480	0.92	-0.78	0.72	1.52	75d 23h	96d 12h	548.8	163.8	24.9	360.1	6.9	1:14.5	0.66
Azerbaijan	10.067	33247	3493	479	29275	0.67	-6.2	0.95	1.73	103d 22h	73d 2h	330.3	34.7	4.8	290.8	1.6	1:61.0	0.88
Georgia	3.724	1206	202	17	987	0.59	-0.09	0.0	0.56	117d 12h		32.4	5.4	0.5	26.5	1.7	1:58.1	0.82
Ukraine	41.902	78515	32857	1846	43812	1.58	1.42	0.91	1.1	44d 7h	76d 16h	187.4	78.4	4.4	104.6	4.2	1:23.8	0.56
Montenegro	0.622	3480	1242	60	2178	1.7	-6.2	2.69	9.96	41d 0h	26d 3h	559.1	199.6	9.6	349.9	2.8	1:36.4	0.63
Kosovo	1.91	9688	3908	300	5480	3.67	2.06	7.18	3.12	19d 5h	9d 23h	507.2	204.6	15.7	286.9	5.5	1:18.3	0.57
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	1347845	331066	27421	989358	0.82	0.31	0.78	0.77	84d 13h	88d 21h	398.6	97.9	8.1	292.6	2.8	1:36.1	0.73

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	17731	5021	390	12320	3.2	1:31.5	0.69	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.99	Czechia
Poland	38.386	49515	12099	1774	35642	5.0	1:20.1	0.72	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.25	Poland
Slovenia	2.094	2223	189	125	1909	6.5	1:15.3	0.86	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	1.61	Slovenia
Romania	19.405	57895	26337	2566	28992	8.8	1:11.3	0.5	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	3.57	Romania
Estonia	1.328	2124	107	63	1954	3.2	1:31.1	0.92	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.28	Estonia
Russia	146.745	870187	180539	14579	675069	2.2	1:46.3	0.78	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.69	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	2480	627	29	1824	1.6	1:62.9	0.74	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.14	Slovakia
Armenia	2.958	39819	7491	772	31556	2.5	1:40.8	0.79	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	7.05	Armenia
Croatia	4.076	5404	561	155	4688	3.3	1:30.2	0.87	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.03	Croatia
Bulgaria	7.0	13014	5205	435	7374	5.9	1:16.9	0.57	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.68	Bulgaria
Serbia	6.964	27332	26711	621	15564	4.0	1:25.1	0.57	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	2.41	Serbia
Latvia	1.907	1275	173	32	1070	3.0	1:33.4	0.84	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.45	Latvia
Hungary	9.773	4597	534	600	3463	17.3	1:5.8	0.75	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.14	1.66	Hungary
Albania	2.862	6016	2673	188	3155	6.0	1:16.8	0.52	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	1.78	Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	13396	5970	384	7042	5.5	1:18.3	0.53	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	3.14	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus	9.413	68503	4167	580	63756	0.9	1:109.9	0.93	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.67	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	26628	7124	828	18676	4.4	1:22.6	0.7	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	8.34	Moldova
Lithuania	2.793	2171	434	81	1656	4.9	1:20.4	0.76	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.78	Lithuania
North Macedonia	2.077	11399	3402	517	7480	6.9	1:14.5	0.66	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	6.73	North Macedonia
Azerbaijan	10.067	33247	3493	479	29275	1.6	1:61.0	0.88	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	1.29	Azerbaijan
Georgia	3.724	1206	202	17	987	1.7	1:58.1	0.82	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.12	Georgia
Ukraine	41.902	78515	32857	1846	43812	4.2	1:23.8	0.56	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	1.19	Ukraine
Montenegro	0.622	3480	1242	60	2178	2.8	1:36.4	0.63	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.61	Montenegro
Kosovo	1.91	9688	3908	300	5480	5.5	1:18.3	0.57	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	4.25	Kosovo
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	1347845	331066	27421	989358	2.8	1:36.1	0.73	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	2.19	UNR Eastern European Group

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt