COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-06-03

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables

	absolute	cases per 100.000	abs. development 1 day	rel. development 1 day	rel. development 5 days/average
Total infections	617987	182.8	11830	1.95%	2.01%
Active cases	310654	91.9	57	0.02%	0.74%
Deaths	11206	3.3	253	2.31%	1.81%
Recovered	296127	87.6	11520	4.05%	2.64%

Deaths per infected	1.81%
Recovered per infected	47.92%
Active per infected	50.27%
Deaths per recovered	3.78%
Projection: Total Case Percentage	0.9%

	Last days rate	Last average rate
Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Time to double cases	35d 20h	34d 19h
Time to reach a million cases	24d 21h	24d 4h
Time to saturate the population	326d 4h	316d 15h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total:	189	Population	na
	Total cases	Cases per 100.000	Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected	na	43	78
Active	na	29	87
Deaths	na	43	50
Recovered	na	46	60
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country

Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Infected	Deaths	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected
		absolute values				Percentage growthrate 5d				Time to double		Cases per 100.000				% / ratio
Czechia	10.694	9438	2364	325	6749	0.52	-0.18	0.25	0.57	133d 9h	277d 19h	88.3	22.1	3.0	63.1	4.8	1:20.7	0.72
Poland	38.386	24687	11558	1115	12014	1.29	0.29	0.77	1.87	54d 1h	90d 8h	64.3	30.1	2.9	31.3	9.3	1:10.8	0.49
Slovenia	2.094	1477	10	109	1358	0.05	1.31	0.19	0.01	stable	>1yr	70.5	0.5	5.2	64.8	8.0	1:12.5	0.92
Romania	19.405	19669	4573	1296	13800	0.71	-0.83	0.63	1.07	97d 11h	109d 18h	101.4	23.6	6.7	71.1	9.4	1:10.6	0.7
Estonia	1.328	1880	161	69	1650	0.23	-1.34	0.3	0.27	308d 6h	232d 13h	141.5	12.1	5.2	124.2	4.2	1:23.9	0.88
Russia	146.745	431715	230948	5208	195559	2.18	0.67	2.85	3.24	32d 4h	24d 16h	294.2	157.4	3.5	133.3	2.7	1:37.6	0.45
Slovakia	5.456	1525	122	28	1375	0.07	-4.46	0.0	0.5	stable		27.9	2.2	0.5	25.2	2.0	1:49.0	0.9
Armenia	2.958	10524	6900	170	3454	3.94	4.12	5.75	0.78	17d 21h	12d 9h	355.8	233.3	5.7	116.8	4.9	1:20.3	0.33
Croatia	4.076	2246	48	103	2095	0.01	-7.71	0.0	0.28	stable		55.1	1.2	2.5	51.4	4.9	1:20.3	0.93
Bulgaria	7.0	2560	1208	146	1206	0.6	-0.94	1.16	2.04	116d 12h	60d 6h	36.6	17.3	2.1	17.2	12.1	1:8.3	0.47
Serbia	6.964	11523	4426	245	6852	0.3	-0.64	0.25	0.73	234d 11h	281d 1h	165.5	63.6	3.5	98.4	3.6	1:27.9	0.59
Latvia	1.907	1079	295	24	760	0.28	-0.54	0.0	0.4	247d 5h		56.6	15.5	1.3	39.9	3.2	1:31.6	0.7
Hungary	9.773	3931	1207	534	2190	0.46	-1.06	0.57	1.33	149d 13h	120d 21h	40.2	12.4	5.5	22.4	24.4	1:4.1	0.56
Albania	2.862	1184	253	33	898	1.5	2.27	0.0	0.93	46d 11h		41.4	8.8	1.2	31.4	3.7	1:27.2	0.76
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	2551	455	157	1939	0.53	-2.41	0.52	1.16	132d 4h	133d 13h	77.3	13.8	4.8	58.7	8.1	1:12.3	0.76
Belarus	9.413	45116	24697	248	20171	2.05	1.4	1.65	2.0	34d 3h	42d 10h	479.3	262.4	2.6	214.3	1.2	1:81.3	0.45
Moldova	2.682	8795	3622	310	4863	2.18	1.02	1.29	2.07	32d 2h	53d 23h	328.0	135.1	11.6	181.3	6.4	1:15.7	0.55
Lithuania	2.793	1684	353	71	1260	0.26	-0.85	0.87	0.54	263d 11h	79d 15h	60.3	12.6	2.5	45.1	5.6	1:17.8	0.75
North Macedonia	2.077	2492	742	145	1605	3.2	6.2	2.29	1.02	21d 23h	30d 13h	120.0	35.7	7.0	77.3	9.0	1:11.1	0.64
Azerbaijan	10.067	6260	2519	76	3665	4.65	5.02	4.16	2.69	15d 6h	17d 0h	62.2	25.0	0.8	36.4	2.1	1:48.3	0.59
Georgia	3.724	800	147	13	640	1.41	-0.85	1.67	1.95	49d 9h	41d 22h	21.5	3.9	0.3	17.2	2.0	1:49.3	0.8
Ukraine	41.902	25385	13805	742	10838	2.16	0.76	1.55	3.22	32d 8h	45d 4h	60.6	32.9	1.8	25.9	6.8	1:14.6	0.43
Montenegro	0.622	324	0	9	315	0.0	0	0.0	0.0			52.1	0.0	1.4	50.6	2.9	1:35.0	0.97
Kosovo	1.91	1142	241	30	871	1.77	-1.11	0.0	0.7	39d 11h		59.8	12.6	1.6	45.6	3.4	1:29.1	0.76
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	617987	310654	11206	296127	2.01	0.74	1.81	2.64	34d 19h	38d 16h	182.8	91.9	3.3	87.6	3.8	1:26.5	0.48

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±	±
Country	Pop (mio)	Infected	Active	Deaths	Recovered	Deaths per Recovered		Recovered per infected	Deaths per infected ... days ago					Possible Total %	Country
		absolute values				% / ratio		Recovered per infected	0d	5d	7d	10d	14d	Possible Total %
Czechia	10.694	9438	2364	325	6749	4.8	1:20.7	0.72	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.82	Czechia
Poland	38.386	24687	11558	1115	12014	9.3	1:10.8	0.49	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.79	Poland
Slovenia	2.094	1477	10	109	1358	8.0	1:12.5	0.92	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	1.41	Slovenia
Romania	19.405	19669	4573	1296	13800	9.4	1:10.6	0.7	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	1.81	Romania
Estonia	1.328	1880	161	69	1650	4.2	1:23.9	0.88	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	1.4	Estonia
Russia	146.745	431715	230948	5208	195559	2.7	1:37.6	0.45	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.96	Russia
Slovakia	5.456	1525	122	28	1375	2.0	1:49.0	0.9	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.14	Slovakia
Armenia	2.958	10524	6900	170	3454	4.9	1:20.3	0.33	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	1.55	Armenia
Croatia	4.076	2246	48	103	2095	4.9	1:20.3	0.93	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.68	Croatia
Bulgaria	7.0	2560	1208	146	1206	12.1	1:8.3	0.47	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.56	Bulgaria
Serbia	6.964	11523	4426	245	6852	3.6	1:27.9	0.59	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.95	Serbia
Latvia	1.907	1079	295	24	760	3.2	1:31.6	0.7	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.34	Latvia
Hungary	9.773	3931	1207	534	2190	24.4	1:4.1	0.56	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.15	1.48	Hungary
Albania	2.862	1184	253	33	898	3.7	1:27.2	0.76	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.31	Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.301	2551	455	157	1939	8.1	1:12.3	0.76	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.07	1.29	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus	9.413	45116	24697	248	20171	1.2	1:81.3	0.45	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.71	Belarus
Moldova	2.682	8795	3622	310	4863	6.4	1:15.7	0.55	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	3.12	Moldova
Lithuania	2.793	1684	353	71	1260	5.6	1:17.8	0.75	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.69	Lithuania
North Macedonia	2.077	2492	742	145	1605	9.0	1:11.1	0.64	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.08	1.89	North Macedonia
Azerbaijan	10.067	6260	2519	76	3665	2.1	1:48.3	0.59	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.2	Azerbaijan
Georgia	3.724	800	147	13	640	2.0	1:49.3	0.8	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.09	Georgia
Ukraine	41.902	25385	13805	742	10838	6.8	1:14.6	0.43	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.48	Ukraine
Montenegro	0.622	324	0	9	315	2.9	1:35.0	0.97	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.39	Montenegro
Kosovo	1.91	1142	241	30	871	3.4	1:29.1	0.76	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.42	Kosovo
UNR Eastern European Group	338.14	617987	310654	11206	296127	3.8	1:26.5	0.48	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.9	UNR Eastern European Group

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt