COVID-19 - UNR Eastern European Group - 20-10-09

Data from JHU, ca. 9:00 CET

UNR Eastern European Group is a Group with the following members:
Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Go to the data tables


absolutecases per 100.000 abs. development
1 day
rel. development
1 day
rel. development
5 days/average
Total infections 2392413 707.5 42840 1.82% 1.5%
Active cases 638592 188.9 24560 4.0% 2.33%
Deaths 46432 13.7 524 1.14% 0.89%
Recovered 1707389504.9177561.05%0.73%
Deaths per infected 1.94%
Recovered per infected71.37%
Active per infected 26.69%
Deaths per recovered 2.72%
Projection:
Total Case Percentage
3.71%

Gives the time necessary to double the existing infections - to reach a million from the existing status, or to reach the population limit of the given group (which can well be below a million). This assumes the exponential growrate of the last day or average of the last five days continues - which it does not, as there will be saturation towards the maximum. Please take these calulations with two grains of salt. As long as there is turning point in sight the data may well hold, though.
Last days rate Last average rate
Time to double cases 38d 8h 46d 16h
Time to reach a million cases
Time to saturate the population274d 0h 333d 8h

A ranking may taste a bit fishy, as this is not a competition between countries, but to compare the relative efficiency of measures taken, or for detecting which countries are likely to get critical next, this ranking imho deserves a place in this overview.
Total: 189Population na
Total casesCases per 100.000Average grow rate (5 days)
Infected na 52 43
Active na 36 57
Deaths na 49 37
Recovered na 47 66
The ranking is made over all groups and countries, including small or recent that are ommitted in the table on the front page - which may lead to minor discrepancies between both!

Diagrams

Members of Group: UNR Eastern European Group

Albania - Armenia - Azerbaijan - Belarus - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Bulgaria - Croatia - Czechia - Estonia - Georgia - Hungary - Kosovo - Latvia - Lithuania - Moldova - Montenegro - North Macedonia - Poland - Romania - Russia - Serbia - Slovakia - Slovenia - Ukraine

Data by Country


Click on the header to sort - Click on the name for the countries dashboard! - Only countries with more then 100 infections and more then 100.000 citizens are listed!
Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredInfectedDeathsInfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
absolute valuesPercentage growthrate 5dTime to doubleCases per 100.000% / ratio
Czechia10.69410937455296905531735.835.423.653.0212d 5h19d 8h1022.8517.18.5497.21.71:58.80.49
Poland38.386116338355442919778753.065.751.750.9422d 23h40d 1h303.192.67.6202.93.81:26.70.67
Slovenia2.0947872286516548423.925.450.641.7818d 0h108d 17h375.9136.87.9231.23.41:29.30.62
Romania19.4051488862879552991147921.843.760.960.9137d 23h72d 15h767.2148.427.3591.64.61:21.60.77
Estonia1.32838098356829061.11.940.00.5463d 13h286.762.95.1218.82.31:42.70.76
Russia146.74512655722382362213710051990.921.930.630.4675d 20h110d 3h862.4162.315.1685.02.21:45.50.79
Slovakia5.45616910114015754525.24.620.732.113d 16h95d 15h309.9208.91.099.91.11:95.20.32
Armenia2.9585508785491010455280.973.60.550.2971d 21h127d 0h1862.6289.134.21539.42.21:45.00.83
Croatia4.076194462438313166951.958.210.790.7835d 21h87d 13h477.159.87.7409.61.91:53.50.86
Bulgaria7.0238717271887157132.033.560.840.7234d 10h82d 20h341.0103.912.7224.55.71:17.70.66
Serbia6.9643451733756761155640.360.260.160.0192d 10h>1yr495.7484.710.90.04.91:20.40.45
Latvia1.907250711454013223.756.421.040.2318d 19h67d 1h131.560.02.169.33.01:33.00.53
Hungary9.773352222510791392022.871.471.794.2924d 11h39d 1h360.4256.99.394.29.91:10.10.26
Albania2.86215066534941393041.10.30.751.2263d 12h93d 3h526.3186.914.4325.04.41:22.50.62
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.301299175750926232411.080.220.760.9764d 12h91d 3h906.3174.228.1704.14.01:25.10.78
Belarus9.413824715043885765430.655.630.670.25107d 8h103d 7h876.153.69.4813.11.21:86.20.93
Moldova2.68260833159021442434891.461.680.840.9847d 18h83d 5h2268.4593.053.81621.73.31:30.10.71
Lithuania2.7935758293310327222.121.991.671.2933d 1h41d 22h206.1105.03.797.43.81:26.50.47
North Macedonia2.077201633373781160091.423.260.50.6649d 2h139d 11h970.7162.437.6770.74.91:20.50.79
Azerbaijan10.067415191785605391290.41.110.230.27172d 0h296d 16h412.417.76.0388.71.61:64.50.94
Georgia3.7241075248147258665.783.825.765.5712d 7h12d 9h288.8129.31.9157.51.21:81.30.55
Ukraine41.90225720413743348991148722.051.551.351.6134d 4h51d 12h613.8328.011.7274.14.31:23.50.45
Montenegro0.62213348382819493261.94-1.731.312.8636d 2h53d 3h2144.6615.031.21498.42.11:48.10.7
Kosovo1.91159711144638141890.2-2.680.250.41350d 17h274d 9h836.259.933.4742.94.51:22.20.89
UNR Eastern European Group338.1423924136385924643217073891.52.330.890.7346d 16h78d 6h707.5188.913.7504.92.71:36.80.71

More Data by Country

Click top row to sort:±±±±±±±±±±±±±±±
CountryPop (mio)InfectedActiveDeathsRecoveredDeaths per RecoveredRecovered per
infected
Deaths per infected ... days agoPossible
Total %
Country
absolute values% / ratio0d5d7d10d14d
Czechia10.69410937455296905531731.71:58.80.490.010.010.010.010.012.29Czechia
Poland38.386116338355442919778753.81:26.70.670.030.030.030.030.032.06Poland
Slovenia2.0947872286516548423.41:29.30.620.020.020.030.030.032.13Slovenia
Romania19.4051488862879552991147924.61:21.60.770.040.040.040.040.047.38Romania
Estonia1.32838098356829062.31:42.70.760.020.020.020.020.021.38Estonia
Russia146.74512655722382362213710051992.21:45.50.790.020.020.020.020.024.08Russia
Slovakia5.45616910114015754521.11:95.20.320.00.00.00.010.010.28Slovakia
Armenia2.9585508785491010455282.21:45.00.830.020.020.020.020.029.23Armenia
Croatia4.076194462438313166951.91:53.50.860.020.020.020.020.022.08Croatia
Bulgaria7.0238717271887157135.71:17.70.660.040.040.040.040.043.42Bulgaria
Serbia6.9643451733756761155644.91:20.40.450.020.020.020.020.022.95Serbia
Latvia1.907250711454013223.01:33.00.530.020.020.020.020.020.57Latvia
Hungary9.773352222510791392029.91:10.10.260.030.030.030.030.042.52Hungary
Albania2.86215066534941393044.41:22.50.620.030.030.030.030.033.9Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina3.301299175750926232414.01:25.10.780.030.030.030.030.037.58Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus9.413824715043885765431.21:86.20.930.010.010.010.010.012.54Belarus
Moldova2.68260833159021442434893.31:30.10.710.020.030.030.030.0314.53Moldova
Lithuania2.7935758293310327223.81:26.50.470.020.020.020.020.021.0Lithuania
North Macedonia2.077201633373781160094.91:20.50.790.040.040.040.040.0410.16North Macedonia
Azerbaijan10.067415191785605391291.61:64.50.940.010.010.010.020.021.62Azerbaijan
Georgia3.7241075248147258661.21:81.30.550.010.010.010.010.010.52Georgia
Ukraine41.90225720413743348991148724.31:23.50.450.020.020.020.020.023.16Ukraine
Montenegro0.62213348382819493262.11:48.10.70.010.020.020.020.028.42Montenegro
Kosovo1.91159711144638141894.51:22.20.890.040.040.050.050.059.03Kosovo
UNR Eastern European Group338.1423924136385924643217073892.71:36.80.710.020.020.020.020.023.71UNR Eastern European Group

Heinsberg study

A study of the University of Bonn on the spread of Covid-19 at Heinsberg - the most affected county in Germany - showed a rate of deaths to infected of 0.37%. As this is the first reliable data on this ratio I use it as a projection from the number of reported deaths to the spread of the disease in the whole population, given as percentage. Note that locally other factors, like a developing spread, unreported deaths or a situation where people are more prone to die due to an overstretch of the health system will affect this number. Countries with a different population structure (eg. more young vs. old) may also get other ratios, so take this with a grain of salt - I will keep an eye on the developing scientific results.
Links (German):
Preliminary results - Press coverage: Die Welt